Nation Network Prospect Profiles: #45 Logan Stanley

Checking in at the mid-point of the second round is towering defenseman Logan Stanley. There are few things that cause a greater divide in opinions among professional and armchair scouts alike than that of the ‘big stay at home D-man’. While the stats would seem to peg him as a guy who would go later on, several agencies currently have him rated as a first round pick.

Follow after the jump as we dig in to what may be one of the more divisive prospects for this draft.

BIO:

  • Age: 17, 1998-08-26
  • Birthplace: Kitchener, ON, CAN
  • Frame: 6’6″ 209 lbs.
  • Position: D
  • Handedness: L
  • Draft Year Team: Windsor Spitfires
  • Accomplishments/Awards: 2015/16 CHL Top Prospects Game

STATS:

pGPS n pGPS s pGPS % pGPS P/GP pGPS R
29 10 34.48 0.2005 0.0691

SCOUTS:

NHL CSS ISS Future Considerations Hockey Prospect McKeen’s Button
19 (NA) 25 N/A 21 N/A 42

Matt Ryan – NHL Central Scouting (via Windsor Star)

“Again, Logan’s another player that just continued to develop throughout the year,” Ryan said. “He’s one of the rare combinations of size and skating ability. “He’s a quality, puck-moving defencemen with a ton of upside. No one else in the draft has his skill set.”

McKeen’s: (March 2016)

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“From veteran OHL watchers to NHL scouts, not many are buying into the Logan Stanley hype that the towering Windsor defenceman is a sure-fire first-rounder. Undeniably, Stanley has made impressive strides this season, yet the scouts are wary of his skating and specifically his pivots, agility, and backwards mobility.”

Brock Otten – OHL Prospects:

“Defensively, he’s a very impressive player. I love his aggression in using his size and reach to prevent entry into the offensive zone. He loves stepping up into the neutral zone, or at the blueline, using his long reach to break up plays. His above average mobility makes him a tough guy to get around one on one too. Offensively, I do see potential. He’s starting to look more comfortable skating the puck out and he’s generally pretty calm under the pressure of the forecheck. But, I’m not sure the offensive hockey sense or puck skill is good enough for him to develop that side of his game to the point where it will be an asset at the next level.”

OUR TAKE:

Stanley played a significant role on a surprisingly good Spitfires team this year. He spent a good chunk of the season with fellow draft eligible Mikhail Sergachev before being moved into a more shut-down role on a pairing with Jalen Chatfield. While his skating is still a bit of a work in progress, Stanley has a good stick in the defensive zone, and possesses a natural advantage due to his height using it to disrupt opposing players due to his great size. He is also an adept physical player, and is not afraid to take the body and use his size to his advantage.

At first glance pGPS paints Stanley in a pretty favorable light as a better than 30% chance of getting an NHLer late in or outside of the first round is very good. However Stanley’s cohort is much smaller due to his uncommon size, and his pGPS P/GP is one of the lowest of our ranked prospects. This would seem to suggest that though players like Stanley have a good shot of becoming NHLers, the chances of becoming an impact player are low. Also due to the fact that defensemen, and taller skaters in general, are perceived to take longer to develop than others, there could be cases of teams holding on to players of his ilk longer than they might otherwise.

Teams looking at Stanley will likely be hoping to get a guy who can be the defensive anchor of a top-4 pairing. While research has shown that even the ‘stay-at-home’ guys at the NHL tended to be strong scorers in junior, there is always a chance that Stanley could break out offensively in the future similarly to a player like Tyler Myers. There is a relatively good chance chance that Stanley goes in the first round come draft day. While most statistical analysis would have him as a guy going later into the draft, player development doesn’t always fall within predictable measures, and if one team believes that he can overcome his weaknesses they may see him as a guy who could be a defensive cornerstone. 

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  • Dirty30

    I guess if he was 5’9″ you would have him rated in the top 5.

    Man if this kid slips out of 1st round he will be grabbed very early as Toronto Edmonton & Vancouver need defensemen.

  • He’s impressed me in most of the Spitfire games I watched this season – through not as much as Sergachev or Brown.

    If he’s available early second round, I think you swing for the fences here. A defence corp with Tryamkin, Pedan and Stanley would be pretty formidable.

    And he’s got the right last name. The Cup pretty much belongs to this guy.

  • Cageyvet

    I think he will go in the 1st round because that size is hard to pass up. If he is still there at the 33rd pick, I’d take him. He may take a while to develop, but the upside seems high.

    My only caveat would be the Clendenning situation, regarding mobility. We’ve seen how an inability to pivot hurt Clendenning, if they think this kid can adjust well enough to oncoming speed, swing for the fences. If the read on him is that he will be exposed too often, pass.

    That one skill is especially pivotal in today’s game, although it’s always been huge. If he can hit the bar with that part of his game, you have to think that the reach and ability to be physically dominant on the wall and in front of the net would put him in the league as a regular, even if he doesn’t make top 4.

    Prior to this article I was hoping we’d take this kid, but I really felt he would go somewhere in the 20’s. If he slips, I think there are worse choices with our 2nd pick.

    • Cageyvet

      There will be too many other good prospects available at 33 to take a flyer on this guy. There will be better bets on defense, as well as some good offensive talents that slip to the second round. Why take a long shot on another big guy just because he’s big?

      • Dirty30

        Absolutely — too many one dimensional D-men on the team.

        Bartowski — moves the puck … God knows where to …

        Weber — big shot … Nowhere near the net

        Sbisa — delivers some hits … and free pizza

        What I like about Groot is he can move the puck, move bodies, break up plays, throw some hits and even pots a goal on occasion … and he’s big, but reasonably mobile and can follow the play or keep pace with the puck-carrier … If this prospect shows those attributes, great … If not, do we need another Sbisa-Weber-Bartowski?

  • Reminder that most defensive defensemen who actually perform well in the NHL and actually succeed in shutting down opposition scored decently when they were younger.

    Has nothing to do with “not being 5’9” but not being good enough of a player to pick up some points.

    Shutting down in the NHL level has a lot to do with defensive prevention AND moving the puck out of the defensive zone. If you are good enough to move the puck at the NHL level, you *most often* will be good enough to move the puck against junior kids and pick up some assists.

    Exceptions obviously always exist, and a trend is only a trend… that said, with a guy like this, if he’s not scoring you have to take the size and physicality with a grain of salt and REALLY put him under the microscope with his ability to move the puck.

  • Cageyvet

    I’m not disagreeing with any of the responses to my original post. I don’t know enough about any of these prospects to do anything more than speculate.

    I’m just saying, he’s ranked a lot higher than 45 on most scouting reports. Maybe it’s a size bias, or maybe he’s got the skills to succeed and some downgrade him because they’re scared he’ll be a pylon, and it’s a negative size bias.

    I’m just hopeful we pull another Boeser type pick and get someone who should have gone higher, but was overlooked for one reason or another.

    Ultimately I’m a best player available proponent, and if that’s a 5’9″ guy who oozes skill, sign me up. I have faith in JB to make a solid pick.

  • The_Blueline

    Don’t we need a top defender with offensive skills? Roman Joshi was drafted #38. I’m not saying it’s easy to find such player, but we should at least try and not waste a #33 pick for some stay home defence man who is probably overrated because of his physical upside.

  • Dirty30

    Love stay at home d-men even though we got a lot already on the LHS with Tryamkin, Pedan and Sbisa. Keep that pipeline pumping!

    Sign Zidlicky. Think he’ll look good next to Edler if we’re keeping our team for 1 more go. He could have an Ehrhoff renaissance. Coincidentally, Tryamkin could be ease in a bit more this coming year. Rotate the following d-pairings (based on current contractual obligations and shot-handedness):

    Power Play D-pairings:
    Edler-Zidlicky
    Hutton-Tryamkin (Larsen)

    Even Strength D-pairings:
    Edler-Tanev
    Hutton-Tryamkin
    Pedan-Larsen (Zidlicky)
    Extra: Sbisa, Biega, Subban

    Subban should be involved due to his contract’s eligibility to skip waiver. Say whatever you got to say about Larsen being a Oiler reject and KHL star; he’s part of the team this coming year. He could pan out or be a right-handed “Alberts”. I like the size. It’s the hand that we’re given and we’re not getting killed on trades as we slowly accumulate our assets again. Hutton was a great find and I think Gillis got to be given credit for that pick; although, we could have drafted Parayko instead of Mallet. Hindsight’s 20/20.