Benning Eye for the Stats Guy: OHL Trip Wrap up


USATSI_7971074_168381338_lowres
Photo Credit: Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports

Jim Benning’s OHL scouting trip was rather impressive, catching 6 games in 8 days. To recap, here was his schedule:

  Date
Windsor Erie 07-Nov
Sarnia Saginaw 08-Nov
Erie Mississauga 10-Nov
London Guelph 13-Nov
Sudbury Mississauga 15-Nov
Erie Kitchener 15-Nov

Over the course of the 8 days, Benning managed to view all top OHL prospects, including every OHLer ranked by TSN”s Craig Button’s in his top 30. Here’s a recap of some of the highlights of Benning’s trip: 

Advertisement - Continue Reading Below

Max Jones – London Knights (ISS #3, PCS pace 21%) 

Max Jones gave Benning quite a viewing, with two points and a pair of fights. According to friend of the blog, OHL scout Todd Cordell, Jones has been a 67% possession playing on the Knight’s second line and is able to enter the offensive zone with control 80% of the time. Both metrics are impressive. It’s hard not to like what Jones brings to the table. He goes hard to the net, has elite tools, and he plays with an edge. Here he is cruising through the neutral zone with ease, before absolutely laying out a Guelph defender. 

Advertisement - Continue Reading Below

Matthew Tkachuck – London Knights (ISS #4, PCS pace 62%)

Benning got to witness the Tkachuk, Mitch Marner, and Christian Dvorak line absolutely torch the Guelph Storm on route to a 10-4 blowout. Tkachuk himself was full value in this one, his elite skill set on display for a 1 goal, 4 point night. The Canucks would really have to Torts up the rest of their season to be in any position to pick Tkachuk, but as far as pipe dreams go, it’s a good one. 

Here is the prettiest Tkachuk highlight of the game, with him and Marner showing off some ridiculous passing: 

Advertisement - Continue Reading Below


Jakob Chychrun – Sarnia Sting (ISS #2, PCS pace 15%)

Like Tkachuk, it’s highly unlikely the Canucks will be in a position. He’s seen a slight dip in production this year as compared to his 16-year-old season, but excellent in his game against Saginaw. Here Chychrun opens the scoring with a lethal wrist shot: 

Advertisement - Continue Reading Below

Alex Nylander – Mississauga Steelheads (ISS #7, PCS pace 34.4%)

If there is rule Jim Benning should have learned by now, it’s not to pass on a Nylander at the draft. Nylander and Mcleod were quiet against the Erie Otters in Benning’s first viewing but lit up Sudbury in Benning’s second viewing. Here is Nylander showing off his top end slap shot: 

Advertisement - Continue Reading Below



Michael McLeod – Mississauga Steelheads (ISS #6, PCS pace 28%)

McLeod had an impressive game against Sudbury, showing excellent speed, passing, and playmaking abilities. McLeod and Nylander have developed amazing chemistry together since Nylander joined the team this season. I went through the Steelhead game sheets, and the two have been on the ice together for approximated two-thirds of their shifts at even strength, as we can see, both players have been good separately, but when they play together they significantly tilt goal differential in the Steelheads favor: 

miss

Advertisement - Continue Reading Below

Here he is finishing off an impressive feed from linemate, Nick Bastian: 

Logan Brown – Windsor Spitfires (ISS #8, PCS pace 70%)

Advertisement - Continue Reading Below

Big centers like Brown (6’6, 218lbs) who have the type of offensive package he does are exceedingly rare, and they typically go on to successful NHL careers. Based on the 23 points he’s scored in his first 16 games, he’s on pace for a stellar 70% PCS, in a cohort which includes players like Brendan Shanahan, Trevor Linden and Vinny Lecavalier. He was relatively quite in his game against a solid Erie team, but he did set up this goal:  


Alex Debrincat – Erie Otters (ISS unranked, Button #24, PCS 40%)

Benning saw the Otters play three times in his trip, and the Debrincat, Strome, and Raddysh line was absolutely dynamite in every game. I’m always a bit leery of the point totals put up by players that get to play along with guys like Dylan Strome, but to my eye neither Raddysh nor Debrincat were passengers. Debrincat is absolutely torching the OHL (27 goals and 41 points in 20 games. Benning loves him (compared him to Johnny Gaudreau), PCS loves him (Pat Kane is in his 40% PCS cohort), and the eye test loves him. Here he is turning on the jets to lose Michael McLeod for the goal: 

Advertisement - Continue Reading Below

Taylor Raddysh – Erie Otters (ISS unranked, Craig Button #29, PCS pace 41%)

Probably the most interesting player for me during this road
trip with Benning was Taylor Raddysh. The 6’2, 200 lb right winger has amassed
33 points in his first 22 games of the season, which is a stat line that should
make him an automatic first round pick, but it appears his play has been
discounted by many scouts early on due to the signal boost he receives from
playing with Dylan Strome and Alex Debrincat, who he’s played an estimated 70%
and 85% of his even strength shifts with, respectively. To dig a bit deeper
into the impact of his teammates on his production, I culled through the Erie
game sheets to calculate goals for differential for the Erie top line: 

erie

 

What we see in the graph above, is that the Erie linemates
tilt goal differential across the board, and Raddysh looks to be a key part of
that, so during the Erie games, I looked closely to see if Raddysh was for
real, or if he was waterskiing behind his talented line mates. I have to say I
was really impressed with what I saw.

Here is an example, with Raddysh cruising through the
neutral zone to thread a beautiful pass to Debrincat:

 

Closing Thoughts

This is a list of the players he viewed and where TSN’s Craig Button ranked them. I’ve highlighted players from Mississauga and Erie, who Benning viewed twice and three times, respectively: 

2016 Prospect Craig Button Rank (Nov 10) Team
Tkachuk 3 London
Chychrun 5 Sarnia
Nylander 7 Mississauga
Sergachov 13 Windsor
Juolevi 14 London
McLeod 15 Mississauga
Debrincat 24 Erie
Brown 25 Windsor
Stanley 28 Windsor
Raddysh 29 Erie
Jones 30 London
Niemelainen 33 Saginaw
Middleton 44 Saginaw
Sokolov 46 Sudbury
Mascherin 57 Kitchener
Bunnaman 64 Kitchener
Pu 68 London
Mete 71 London
Bastian 75 Mississauga
Kyrou 86 Sarnia
Smith 88 Guelph
Day 92 Mississauga

Not to read too much into Benning’s choice of which games to watch, it was interesting to see that Benning chose to see players like Taylor Raddysh, Alex Debrincat, Michael McLeod, and Alex Nylander on multiple occasions. 

If Benning were to be able to acquire one or two late first, or early second round picks, by say trading Radim Vrbata and Dan Hamhuis before the deadline, I would not be surprised at all to see him use a pick in that range to select a player like Alex Debrincat or Taylor Raddysh based on their sparkling showings during this scouting road trip.

Others in this series: 

Benning Eye for the Stats Guy: Windsor vs Erie

Benning Eye for the Stats Guy: Sarnia vs Saginaw

Benning Eye for the Stats Guy: Erie vs Mississauga

Benning Eye for the Stats Guy: London vs Guelph

Benning Eye for the Stats Guy: Sudbury vs Mississauga

Benning Eye for the Stats Guy: Erie vs Kitchener



  • Nichushkin Stinks

    Great wrap-up to the series, much appreciated!

    I know it makes sense to cover an extended road trip in which Benning caught a bunch of consecutive games in a league he doesn’t get to see often, but it would be great if you continued the series periodically to catch up on which teams/players Benning has been scouting since. Assuming it’s not a logistical nightmare.

  • Andy

    Good Series.

    Having PCS is interesting but having some clips gives the context.

    Linden mentioned he was also at every game with Benning. And was at one more that benning wasn’t able to make due to the gm meeting in toronto.

  • Nichushkin Stinks

    After skipping on smaller high skill players like Nylander and Ehlers, why would you come to the idiotic conclusion that Benning likes an even smaller player in DeBrincat? #moneypuke