At the end of any team’s season, there are the inevitable questions around who will stay and who will go. However, when you have an aging core, a nasty cap situation, and a GM who both loves draft picks and isn’t afraid to make moves, there is really only one guarantee going into the offseason: change is coming (again). 
There has been a lot of speculation in the Vancouver media over the course of the last couple days, probably best summed up by Jason Botchford in The Provies, who suggested the Canucks move a number of players this offseason, including the rights to Shawn Matthias and Yannick Weber, as well as Kevin Bieksa, Chris Higgins, and potentially Alex Burrows and Jannik Hansen. 
Given the Canucks cap situation, it seems likely that Benning will be looking to move core players in exchange for draft picks, rather than taking players back in return, so I thought I’d look at trades made over the past few years for players similar to who the Canucks have to offer. 

The Rights to Shawn Matthias

Shawn Matthias is big and he can score goals. In fact, he was in the top 40 in the league for both even-strength goals and goals per 60 minutes at even strength. It’s a weak UFA crop this year, and at 27 year old, this is his opportunity for a David Clarkson contract. Given Vancouver’s cap situation, the Canucks really aren’t in a position to re-sign him, so it makes sense for Benning to try to move his rights for a pick. Here is a list of trades made for pending UFAs over the past three seasons: 
DatePlayerAcquiring TeamCompensationTeam
June 28, 2011
Christian Ehrhoff
NYI
4th round pick
VCR
June 29, 2011
James Wisniewski
CBY
5th  round pick
MTL
June 29, 2011
Christian Ehrhoff
BUF
4th round pick
NYI
June 29, 2011
Steve Montador
CHI
7th round pick
BUF
June 23, 2012
Jonas Gustavsson
WPG
7th round pick
TOR
June 27, 2012
Dennis Wideman
CGY
5th  round pick+ b prospect
WSH
June 6, 2013
Sergei Gonchar
DAL
6th round pick
OTT
June 12, 2013
Mark Streit
PHI
4th  round pick + b prospect
NYI
June 5, 2014
Dan Boyle
NYI
5th round pick
SJS
June 14, 2014
Louis Leblanc
ANA
5th round pick
MTL
June 25, 2014
Nikita Nikitin
EDM
5th round pick
CBJ
Market Value: As we can see, most deals for UFAs of comparable pedigree to Matthias were 5th round picks. Anything better than that would be a really nice win for Jim Benning. 

Kevin Bieksa

To look at comps for a Bieksa trade, I looked at defensemen traded since 2011 over the age of 30, who were playing at least third pairing minutes (17 min/gm) with similar cap hits and remaining contract terms to Bieksa:
Age as of TradeTransaction DateAcquiring TeamPlayerTeamCompensation
31
2011-06-24
TOR
John-Michael Liles
COL
2nd round pick
33
2013-03-25
PIT
Douglas Murray
SJ
2 x 2nd round picks
34
2011-07-05
BOS
Joe Corvo
CAR
4th round pick
37
2012-02-17
NSH
Hal Gill + 5th round pick
MTL
2nd round pick + two low grade prospects
35
2012-02-24
NJ
Marek Zidlicky
MIN
Kurt Foster, Nick Palmieri, Stephane Veilleux, 2nd, 3rd
30
2012-02-27
CHI
Johnny Oduya
WPG
2nd & 3rd round picks
36
2012-06-22
NYI
Lubomir Visnovsky
ANA
2nd round pick
34
2013-04-03
SJ
Scott Hannan
NSH
6th or 7th round picks
35
2014-07-01
COL
Brad Stuart
SJ
2nd & 6th round picks
Market value: There’s a bit more fluctuation on this list, with Minnesota and San Jose receiving big hauls for Zidlicky and Murray, both of which were deals made close to the trade deadline. On the other end of the spectrum, Carolina and Nashville didn’t receive much in the way of compensation at all for Joe Corvo and Scott Hannan. When you strip out the outliers on either side, the market value seems to be a 2nd round pick plus either a lower pick or a low grade prospect. 
Now, there is a bit of variability to consider here in the case of Bieksa. On the one hand, he still has a good reputation in the league as both a leader and a physical player, potentially increasing his value somewhat. On the other, he does have a no-trade clause which could either limit the list of potential trade partners (as it did in the Kesler scenario), or put a kibosh on a trade altogether. 
If Bieksa does go, which wouldn’t surprise me at all given the need the Canucks have for his cap space, Benning will likely get a 2nd in return, plus either a late round pick or a second grade prospect. If he can improve from that, then all the better. 

Jannik Hansen and/or Chris Higgins 

Similar to the process above for Bieksa, I looked at players similar to Hansen and Higgins, in terms of age, production, and ice time: 
Age as of TradeTransaction DateAcquiring TeamPlayerTeamCompensationDOBGPGAPTSTOI
32
2012-01-20
NJ
Alexei Ponikarovsky
CAR
4th + b prospect
09-Apr-80
82
14
19
33
15
32
2012-02-16
SJ
Dominic Moore + 7th
TB
2nd
03-Aug-80
79
4
21
25
16
27
2012-02-27
NSH
Andrei Kostitsyn
MTL
2nd + 5th
03-Feb-85
72
16
20
36
15
34
2012-02-27
VCR
Samuel Pahlsson
CBG
2 x 4th + b prospect
17-Dec-77
80
4
13
17
15
30
2012-02-27
NSH
Paul Gaustad + 4th
BUF
1st
03-Feb-82
70
7
14
21
15
30
2013-04-02
VCR
Derek Roy
DAL
2nd + a prospect
04-May-83
42
7
21
28
19
31
2013-04-02
NYR
Ryane Clowe
SJ
2 x 2nds, + 3rd
30-Sep-82
40
3
16
19
17
27
2013-07-05
WPG
Devin Setoguchi
MIN
2nd
01-Jan-87
48
13
14
27
15
31
2014-03-05
PIT
Lee Stempniak
CGY
3rd
04-Feb-83
73
12
22
34
19
30
2015-02-25
PIT
Daniel Winnik
TOR
2nd, 4th, prospect
06-Mar-85
79
9
25
34
17
27
2015-02-25
WPG
Jiri Tlusty
CAR
3rd, 6th
16-Mar-88
72
14
17
31
16
33
2015-02-28
CHI
Antoine Vermette
ARI
1st, prospect
20-Jul-82
82
13
25
38
18
32
2015-03-01
WSH
Curtis Glencross
CGY
2nd, 3rd
28-Dec-82
71
13
22
35
16
27
2015-03-02
MIN
Chris Stewart
BUF
2nd
30-Oct-87
81
14
22
36
16
 
Market Value: In terms of outliers, we see Carolina show up twice more in terms of teams that didn’t seem to get market value for their assets (Ponikarovsky in 2012, and Tlusty this year), while on the other end of the spectrum New York, Nashville and Chicago paid hefty prices for the services of Ryane Clowe, Paul Gaustad and Antoine Vermette, although the later is probably justified given Chicago’s cup ambitions.
When you filter out these deals, it again looks like the consensus for a player like Higgins or Hansen would likely fall around a 2nd round pick.

Where Do We Go From Here?

As reported this past weekend, the salary cap is currently projected to be $71.5M next year, which by my math eaves the Canucks with only $4.86M in space to fill the remaining 6 roster spots. We can assume some those spots will go to RFAs like Linden Vey, Yannick Weber, Sven Baertschi, Frank Corrado, Adam Clendening, and Ronalds Kenins, but at an average of only $0.8M per open roster spot, the Canucks don’t have a ton of latitude when re-signing these guys. Using Jake Virtanen and/or Hunter Shinkaruk doesn’t make their situation any easier, as their cap hits with bonuses are $1.775M and $1.1M, respectively. 
Any way you slice it, something has to give. Benning will need to clear cap space, and the assets he has to trade will likely net him a handful of mid-round draft picks. Maybe the Canucks should scout for players available in the second round after all.