Photo Credit: Winslow Townson / USA TODAY Sports

It seems likely that the Vancouver Canucks will be moving on without pending unrestricted free agent Brad Richardson.

Though Canucks general manager Jim Benning recently suggested that he’s still in touch with Richardson’s agent (Mark Guy of Newport Sports) and hasn’t given up on bringing the penalty killing ace back for next season, the club is dealing with a significant cap crunch. It’s probable that the club will have to replace Richardson’s quiet, useful contributions internally.

Luckily there’s a tailor made in-house replacement available to the Canucks in 20-year-old pivot Bo Horvat. Horvat has serious defensive chops, and his play driving ability came on in a major way towards the latter half of his rookie campaign. When it comes to stepping into Richardson’s skates at 5-on-5, Horvat is a good bet, and might even be an upgrade. It’s a different story shorthanded though…

Richardson was injured throughout the second half of this latest Canucks season, but on a per-game basis, he was tied with Nick Bonino as Vancouver’s most frequently used penalty-killing forward. He was arguably Vancouver’s key penalty killer, since Bonino’s short-handed minutes ticked upward following Richardson’s frustrating lower-body injury.

When he was in the lineup, Richardson was Vancouver’s best shot suppressing penalty killer. Over the past four years, actually, he’s been one of the 10 best shot suppressing penalty killing forwards in the entire NHL.

It’s tough to replace an elite penalty killer, and Horvat’s results in his rookie season – albeit in a minuscule sample – would suggest that he’ll have a tough time. Horvat logged under 50 4-on-5 minutes for Vancouver in his first full NHL campaign, but when he was on the ice, the team bled shots against. 

Basically opposing team’s power plays averaged over 70 shots for per 60 minutes when Horvat was on the ice in 4-on-5 situations last season. That’s 30 shots worse (per 60 minutes) than what the Canucks managed with Richardson on the ice. It’s also a higher shot rate than any NHL power play managed last season.

We should be wary of reading too much into Horvat’s results in a sample this small, but we should also be skeptical that Horvat can just step into a significant penalty killing role and handle it like a cagey NHL veteran. The small sample results would suggest that there could be a steep learning curve.

The Canucks may not be able to retain Richardson, which could result in Horvat being thrust into a penalty killing role that he’s not quite ready for. They’ll have a chance to address the potential issue this off-season, possibly by trading for a dependable veteran penalty killer at the upcoming NHL Entry Draft.

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