If you haven’t heard already, the Vancouver Canucks have three players that are set to become unrestricted free agents this summer.
Plenty of ink has been spilled already about what each player might cost, how they fit on the team, and what the Canucks’ plan B (or C or D) might be if any or all of the players walk in free agency. Obviously that’s a very real possibility, but until July 1st, the Canucks are the only team that can sign these players to a new contract.
Today, we’re putting ourselves in the Canucks’ shoes for the negotiations and asking: What should the walk away number be with each of their pending unrestricted free agent. Note that this is not necessarily what the Canucks should sign these players to. Rather, it’s the number that the Canucks would likely have to make their best and final offer, and obviously, they likely wouldn’t want to sign all three to the contracts listed below.
Brock Boeser: 7 years x $8 million
This might seem a little rich for most fans’ liking, but when you consider where Boeser ranks in a fairly weak class of free agents — which also means the options for the Canucks to replace him aren’t going to be anything to write home about — this might still end up being a hometown discount for Boeser with the NHL salary cap rising.
The Canucks were reportedly already willing to offer Boeser an $8 million AAV, but that was on a five-year deal, and Boeser is seeking more security and more total dollars than that. It would seem the sweet spot is likely seven years at $7 or $7.5 million for Boeser to return to the Canucks, but if it gets any higher than seven years at $8 million annually, the Canucks will likely need to move on from Boeser.
Pius Suter: 5 years x $5 million
There’s a reason Pius Suter is known as a Swiss Army Knife. Okay, there’s actually two reasons.
But the main one that matters and will matter in free agency is his versatility. It wouldn’t be a surprise if most teams in free agency view Suter as more of a winger than a centre, but his ability to play both positions certainly works in his favour. Suter is able to kill penalties, play matchup minutes, and of course, is coming off a career-high 22 goals after never being able to break 15 in previous seasons.
As a result, Suter is in line for a substantial increase from his current contract, which carries a $1.6 million AAV and was signed two seasons ago. Again, the sticker shock on the number above is normal, but when you consider that Suter is arguably the fifth or sixth best centre available in free agency (and yes, with the cap going up), there’s bound to be a team willing to overpay for Suter’s services in an effort to improve their team for the season ahead.
Of course, the Canucks would love to keep Suter, but if that contract gets much above the 4×4 range, it becomes dicey. But anything above 5×5? That’s where the Canucks simply have to say thanks but no thanks and move on.
Derek Forbort: 2 years x $1.5 million
Finally, Derek Forbort. This is an interesting one, because Forbort was viewed as a discount version of Ian Cole when the Canucks signed him in free agency. While Cole is no doubt the better defenceman, Forbort has provided a great amount of value to the Canucks’ penalty kill, and his 5v5 impact hasn’t been bad either, all things considered.
But Forbort is 33, has historically struggled to stay healthy, and that likely will keep him from getting the AAV we see defencmen like Ian Cole get paid. A two-year deal at $1 or $1.5 million in Vancouver could get it done, but with Elias Pettersson emerging and Tom Willander on the way — along with the rest of the Canucks’ defence group pretty much set for next season — the Canucks don’t have to bend too much when it comes to negotiating with Forbort.
Thus, the walk away number is low, and the chances of him getting that or better in free agency are high.
What would your walk away number for each of these free agents be if you were the Canucks? Let us know in the comments section below!
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