Photo Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin/USA TODAY Sports
It’s a do-or-die Game 5 for the Vancouver Canucks on Thursday night.
Facing a Calgary Flames team that has proven exceedingly difficult to stick goals into, the Canucks are desperate and they need their best players to produce.
The Sedin twins have controlled play all series long, but they’ve been unable to beat Jonas Hiller. Flames players and Bob Hartley have boasted about their success at keeping the Flames to the outside throughout the series, and Daniel and Henrik have combined for two total points in four games.
Now the twins’ regular triggerman is out of the lineup, and instead of playing with Radim Vrbata – the club’s only 30 goal scorer and the team MVP – the twins are playing with Jannik Hansen. Does it make any sense?
Tony Gallagher of the Vancouver Province doesn’t think so:
Despite the fact the management which hired him specifically went out and got Radim Vrbata to play with the twins — and the trio had outstanding success for the better part of half the season — either the twins’ influence or the seduction of Hansen’s speed has once again thrust you-know-who on to their line at the most critical time of the year. They played some together in Game 3, almost all of Game 4 and it appears they’re slated to be a line in Game 5.Coach No. 3 feels obligated to learn the same painful lesson the other two did, in the same painful way. It’s almost as excruciating to watch as it was when the previous regime persisted with Steve Bernier on the No. 1 power-play unit.Even if there’s some sort of statistical cluster and they get five goals Thursday night, it doesn’t bleeping work. (As TSN 1040’s Jeff Paterson quipped: “Outgoing coaches should leave a handbook.”)
Frankly I reject the premise that Hansen with the twins doesn’t work. It has on occasion, though those occasions have generally been both short and far and few between.
Over the past five years Hansen has logged as much 5-on-5 icetime in the regular season with the twins has Vrbata has this season alone. Still, both in terms of his goal scoring rate and in helping the twins to drive play, Hansen with the twins has been quietly effective:
| 2009-2015 | G/60 | G/60 with Henrik | TOI with Henrik | CF% with Henrik |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jannik Hansen | 0.72 | 1.56 | 499:02 | 58.1 |
Radim Vrbata | 0.75 | 1.17 | 565:11 | 54.1 |
Looking at the underlying data, you can see the logic of what the Canucks are trying to do here. Basically Vrbata is the more potent offensive player than Hansen when he’s playing away from the twins, so he adds some additional potency to a supporting line. Meanwhile Hansen has scored at a decent clip with the twins, and helps them control play.
That’s basically what Jim Benning admitted during a pregame appearance on TSN 1040.
“I think Willie’s strategy on that is that he wanted to spread the offense around,” said Benning. “The Sedins they always create offense, but you put Vrbata on that second line and they started scoring and that was important for our group.”
Unlike with the Luca Sbisa extension, on this front the underlying numbers back up Benning’s point of view.
As we know though, the game is about more than just the numbers. That’s particularly true in a do-or-die playoff game. The Sedins have been generating chances and zone time just fine against the Flames, the problem has been the quality – or lack thereof – of the club’s finishing game.
We don’t even need to say it, but Vrbata is a superior finisher to Hansen.
If, in the pursuit of balance, the Canucks can’t get their best players going tonight, then their season will be over.
Contrary to popular opinion Hansen has worked with the twins at 5-on-5 in the past. If you’re looking to get the twins and by extension the Canucks going offensively though, particularly in a situation where there’s no margin for error, playing Henrik and Daniel Sedin with the triggerman who scored 11 even-strength goals playing with them this year seems like the better bet.
