It’s been an embarrassing week for the Vancouver Canucks, who followed up a regulation loss to the Buffalo Sabres by suffering a 6-2 pummelling at the hands of the Edmonton Oilers. The Canucks are now just 2-6-2 in their last ten matchups and sit three points back of the Calgary Flames in the playoff race, having played one more game.

They will host the league-leading Washington Capitals Saturday evening, who hold a record of 8-0-2 over the last ten games and enter this matchup in the midst of a six-game winning streak.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Capitals have shown the ability to win games in a lot of different ways this season. They rank second in goals scored per game, have had a well-balanced offensive attack, and have, at times, shown elite defensive prowess to help win close matchups.

More recently, the main story has become the dominant play-in goal of Logan Thompson, who has carried the team to strong results despite the fact that they do not own much of the overall play. Thompson is 9-0-1 in his last ten starts with a .946 save percentage, but will serve as Charlie Lindgren’s backup for the second straight game.

Lindgren enters off a 22 save shutout over the Kraken on Thursday night, and holds a .904 save percentage and 2.53 GAA in 22 games played this season.

Over the last 15 games, the Capitals hold a 49.52% expected goal share and have allowed 3.28 xGA/60. Their goaltenders have combined for a .929% save percentage in that span, and they hold a PDO of 105.35.

At the start of the season Alex Ovechkin had done a surprisingly good job helping his team carry play at a respectable rate, but he has not been overly effective in recent matchups despite his output of goals. Part of the problem has been that line-mate Dylan Strome has been entirely out of form after an excellent start to the year, and the same can be said for Connor McMichael, who also appears likely to remain on the top line in this matchup.

It’s been the Capitals’ second line of Pierre-Luc Dubois, Aliaksei Protas and Tom Wilson that has carried the team recently with excellent play at both ends of the ice. They have played tough minutes, spending the majority of their time against the opposing team’s top offensive units, and have fared extremely well outscoring opponents 12-4 in 160 minutes together.

Over the last 20 games the Capitals’ power play has succeeded on 26.5% of opportunities, which has largely revolved around Jakob Chychrun’s addition to the top unit. Chychrun, being a lefty with an elite shot of his own, gives the unit far more wrinkles than we have seen in recent years and makes it much more difficult for opposing teams to overplay Ovechkin and Carlson’s one-timers.

Chances are the lead in to this game on Sportsnet’s national broadcast will feature plenty of coverage regarding potential trades involving J.T. Miller or Elias Pettersson, and the outside noise surrounding the team right now has hit a fever pitch. It certainly hasn’t helped matters that the team is struggling mightily to find success right now, and has lost plenty of ground in the playoff race.

The Canucks are now currently priced as a betting underdog (+110) to make the playoffs this season. They are 8-10-7 since December 1st and have scored just 2.44 goals per game while allowing 3.28 goals against per game.

Tyler Myers will serve the third and final game of his suspension in this matchup, which helps open the door for defender Elias Pettersson to make his NHL debut. Pettersson appears likely to play alongside Carson Soucy on the second pairing, while Quinn Hughes and Filip Hronek will play together on the top unit.

Head coach Rick Tocchet has also shaken up his offensive lines, and has put together three fairly balanced units. Chances are we will see Tocchet lean more heavily upon whichever units appear to be earning more ice-time early, as there are obviously a number of key forwards offering inconsistent play right now.

While the Canucks’ are doing their best to play a low-event brand of hockey, which is likely reasonable given the strengths and weaknesses of their current defence core, they are still allowing 2.98 xGA/60 in the month of January and 3.36 goals against per game where it counts.

Part of their ugly goals against average comes down to the shaky play of Thatcher Demko in goal, but it appears that Kevin Lankinen will be given the start in this matchup. Lankinen holds a .903% save percentage and 2.63 GAA in 30 appearances this season.

The Capitals recent play has not been nearly as dominant as they suggest, and they may be due for some negative regression soon.  They have leaned heavily upon incredible goaltending and timely scoring to win a lot of games recently, which was the case when these teams met in Washington earlier in the month.

Washington’s current gameplay likely won’t lead to such incredible results moving forward, but I don’t see any value in buying into that idea, given that the Canucks are only slight underdogs.

A number of key Capitals skaters, such as Ovechkin, Strome and McMichael, have not been overly effective of late, and it’s been Dubois and Protas who are carrying the team from an offensive perspective.

Dubois has recorded 22 points over the last 23 games and has recorded at least one point in 17 of those matchups. He has been visibly dominant, and the majority of Capitals’ fans would happily tell you that either Dubois or Protas has been the team’s most important skater this season.

At -110, I believe there is value backing Dubois to record a point versus a Canucks side which has allowed the eight most goals against in the league this season.