Connor Bedard will play in front of his home crowd for the first time as the Vancouver Canucks host the Chicago Blackhawks Saturday night. Chicago owns a record of 4-6-0 over the last 10 games, and Bedard has not been at his best in producing just six points in that span.

The Canucks will look to bounce back as heavy favourites after playing one of their worst games of the season Thursday versus the New York Islanders.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Blackhawks have looked as roughly as expected this season after achieving a record of 6-10-1. Luke Richardson’s side has looked reasonably well organized and has generally offered a professional compete level, but is still hindered by a significant lack of true offensive talent.

Over the last 10 games, the Blackhawks have played to an expected goal share of just 44.02%, which ranks 26th in the league. They have generated only 2.73 xGF/60 in that span. They have received the league’s third-best save percentage (S%) of .913 in those 10 games and have been a profitable betting side with big upset wins over the Minnesota Wild, Los Angeles Kings and Colorado Avalanche.

Richardson continues to shuffle his offensive lines trying to find combinations that work, and perhaps has done so a little too often. Bedard has spent time playing with a lot of different linemates, including a decent amount of time without Teuvo Teravainen on his unit, which doesn’t really make sense given Teravainen’s skill set and playing style.

Bedard played with Teravainen and Philipp Kurashev versus Seattle, and it will be interesting to see if that unit sticks together in this matchup.

While it’s been a bit of a quiet start overall for Bedard, 13 points in 17 games on a horrid offensive team is certainly nothing to scoff at. He’s attempted 16.95 shot attempts per 60 this season and generated 9.56 on-target per 60.

Petr Mrazek is expected to get the start in this matchup. He holds a .906 SV% and +1.4 goals saved above expected rating (GSAx) this season.

Head coach Rick Tocchet’s Canucks side certainly has something to prove over the next stretch as it gets into a tougher portion of the schedule. They have not played like an elite side in matchups against higher-quality opponents and suffered a deserving loss Thursday versus an Islanders team that is suddenly holding a playoff spot.

When Brock Boeser returns to the lineup, the Canucks still look to be offering one of the deeper offensive corps in the league. Dakota Joshua likely won’t produce quite like we saw last season, but his return should prove impactful in time. Kiefer Sherwood has had an excellent start to the season and has earned a spot on Elias Pettersson’s wing for the time being.

The one concern among the Canucks’ roster that seems unlikely to change is the shaky play of Tyler Myers

The Canucks have done an excellent job of beating up on softer competition this season, including the Blackhawks in their previous matchup in Chicago. Still, this betting line suggests you would need the Canucks to win this game seven-of-ten times to be profitable, and I don’t see value laying it with the Canucks in this spot.

At 4-6-0 in the last 10, the Blackhawks have been a profitable bet because of how they have been priced. While they are certainly far from good, the betting market seems to be power-rating them low enough that there isn’t much value fading them.

Bedard is the Hawks’ only truly dynamic offensive piece, and their offensive upside is quite limited. Petr Mrazek has had a strong start to the season, though, and they have done a respectable job of insulating him in a number of their wins over quality opponents.

I do think this sets up as a pretty good spot to play the chalky angle and back Bedard in some prop markets. His return to his hometown coincides with his far below-average run in terms of shot volume. However, his last three matchups have come versus notably low-event teams.

He will likely be skating alongside Teravainen and Kurashev on the top line, and I do believe that combination should help Bedard compared to some of the units he’s played on at times this season.

At -130, I see value backing Bedard to record over 2.5 shots on goal in this matchup – playable up to -140.