After a momentous 4-0 win over the Florida Panthers on Thursday, the Vancouver Canucks fell flat Saturday evening in an embarrassing 5-1 loss on home-ice. They will look to bounce-back Monday in another difficult matchup, as they host a Colorado Avalanche side that has been a formidable opponent since acquiring goaltenders Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Avalanche have suffered through one of the leagues’ worst injury situations this season, and were also receiving league worst goaltending from their former duo of Alexandar Georgiev and Justus Annunen. Now that they are healthy and have upgraded their goaltending situation, it feels as though most observers are expecting the Avs’ to look like a contender the rest of the way.

When the Avs’ are on the front-foot attacking in the offensive zone, they still looked to be arguably the best team in the league, especially with combinations involving Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon on the ice.

The Avs’ defensive play has looked fairly concerning of late though, and they do still look to have some holes on the back-end and in the bottom-six. Over the last ten games Colorado holds an expected goal share of just 49.22%, and has allowed 3.14 expected goals against per 60.

The Avs’ will likely keep MacKinnon together with Mikko Rantanen and Arturri Lehkonen in this matchup, as that unit has been highly productive of late. Over the last three games they have combined for 10 goals and 19 points, and have generated 3.23 xGF/60 this season.

Look for head coach Jared Bednar to offer his top line plenty of offensive zone starts paired with his top defensive tandem of Makar and Devon Toews in this matchup.

Mackenzie Blackwood is considered probable to get this start. He has played to a .913 save % and 2.95 GAA this season, and was brilliant in his Avalanche debut on Saturday versus Nashville.

After what was arguably their best home-win of the season versus the Panthers, the Canucks played what was probably their worst game of the season versus Boston. The Bruins held a 19-7 edge in high-danger chances. Boston clearly had more jump in all areas of the ice, and on top of the fact that the Bruins seemed to win almost every puck-battle, they also played a drastically more structured game.

If there is one excuse for the Canucks’ surprisingly bad performance in that matchup, it’s that a number of players are reportedly dealing with the flu, which did force Kevin Lankinen and Derek Forbort to miss Saturday’s matchup.

Whether that excuses validates Saturday’s performance or not, we have seen a pretty lengthy span of unconvincing play from the Canucks. Over the last 15 games Vancouver is just 7-6-2 with a goal differential of zero. It holds an expected goal share of just 44.55% in that span, which ranks fourth worst, and is allowing 29.23 SA/60.

Having Brock Boeser and J.T. Miller back in the lineup at the same time should help the Canucks own somewhat more of the play moving forward, and obviously boosts their offensive upside.

The bottom two defensive pairs continue to be a huge concern though, and continue to help make the case towards just how good Quinn Hughes has been this season. Whether it’s Filip Hronek, Noah Juulsen or Tyler Myers playing alongside Hughes, the top pairing has never been the problem.

Whatever two combinations don’t have Hughes have been struggling mightily of late, and I’m not sure it’s possible for head coach Rick Tocchet to form three quality defensive units with Hronek out of the lineup due to injury.

Thatcher Demko is expected to make his third start of the season in this matchup. He has struggled to a save percentage of just .830 in his first two starts of the season.

The Canucks’ lack of consistency and overall process has been concerning of late, though their actual results have remained somewhat reasonable. It’s not surprising to me to see that the betting prices on this matchup have moved heavily towards Colorado, but the fact that I don’t view the Avalanche as full-blown powerhouse right now makes me believe a price of -155 for Colorado to win isn’t worth a bet.

The Avalanche have been playing at closer to full health for a meaningful sample now, and their defensive play has not improved in that span. They certainly have the superstar talents to win high-event games and may have now sorted out their goaltending situation, but it does seem likely that the Canucks can at least generate a decent amount of looks in this matchup.

The Canucks’ will likely lean on Hughes to play huge minutes in this matchup, and he looks to have a slightly better chance at production than oddsmakers are crediting. Over the last ten games Hughes has 15 points, and gone over 1.5 five times. In a matchup versus take an Avs’ side allowing the fourth most goals against in the league, +205 for him to record two or more points looks worthy of a play.

There also looks to be value backing MacKinnon to extend his goal streak at +135. The Canucks are also struggling defensively, and MacKinnon should fare quite well in the minutes he spends without Hughes on the ice in this game. Demko has also struggled since his return to the lineup, and it’s possible that he may not get to the level we saw during his dominant 2023-24 season.