The Vancouver Canucks will look to respond to a humiliating 5-0 loss to the Seattle Kraken when they host the Anaheim Ducks on Saturday afternoon.

Vancouver has struggled on home ice this season, sporting a record of just 15-14-7 entering this matchup. While missing the playoffs now appears to be somewhat of a foregone conclusion, a 7-0-0 finish to the year would give them a fighter’s chance of catching the Minnesota Wild, who are projected to finish with 95 points.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Anaheim Ducks will officially miss the playoffs for a seventh consecutive season, but the long-term outlook for the team looks quite positive, and they should have an excellent chance of ending their playoff drought next season. The roster now features more than enough talent to succeed in this league, and the majority of the team’s most important players should take steps forward next season.

Head coach Greg Cronin’s side has had a disappointing season from an offensive perspective, despite also struggling mightily to suppress the opposition’s scoring chances. While it’s easy to respect Cronin’s desire to teach his core to play the right way, the Ducks roster is not well suited to play such a conservative style and would likely hold better defensive numbers had they been more aggressive in attempting to drive possession this season.

Since the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament, the Ducks have started to generate offence more effectively. They have scored 3.24 goals per game across 21 matchups since the break, which is a more accurate reflection of the roster’s offensive upside than we have seen throughout the rest of the season.

2023 second overall pick Leo Carlsson has put up 21 points in his last 21 games and is starting to find chemistry with 2022 fifth overall pick Cutter Gauthier on the top line. While Gauthier’s play has been a disappointment at times this season, Cronin clearly offered him no leeway to make the type of mistakes that are common among young, offensive-minded forwards, and he floundered down in the bottom six for too long.

Mason McTavish has also recorded 21 points over his last 21 games played, and is currently playing well alongside Trevor Zegras, who has also trended into much better form.

If GM Pat Verbeek surprises and opts to bring Cronin back as bench boss next season, Cronin should feel highly grateful for the goaltending tandem of Lukas Dostal and John Gibson. Dostal and Gibson have combined for a +30.9 GSAx rating this season, which has helped mask Anaheim’s awful defensive play.

Dostal is expected to get the start in this matchup as Gibson is listed as day-to-day. Dostal holds a +15.6 GSAx rating and .905 save percentage in 49 appearances.

All of the injuries and turmoil the Canucks have dealt with this season seems to have finally become too much to overcome, as Wednesday’s 5-0 loss to the Kraken makes earning a playoff berth a massive longshot.

While chances are the Canucks already blew their chances of a playoff berth in Thursday’s loss, it would be foolish to think they will lack urgency in this game as they attempt to show some pride on home ice. They do have a head-to-head matchup left with Minnesota, which keeps the door open just a little bit.

Vancouver did not offer a sharp defensive performance on Wednesday, but still easily could have generated a respectable offensive output with better finishing. The Canucks led 17-7 in expected goal share and generated 4.32 expected goals. Nobody who watched the game would look at the analytics and say it was a good performance, but the team did have enough scoring chances to make it a game.

While it may not specifically have been the greatest issue in Wednesday’s loss, it is important to consider that the Canucks are currently playing without their top two centres. Nobody wants to hear excuses, but there aren’t many teams in the league that could post decent results for a long stretch of play without their top-two centres, and the Canucks have done a respectable job overall in the time Elias Pettersson and Filip Chytil have been sidelined.

The Canucks’ top line of Jake DeBrusk, Brock Boeser, and Pius Suter did generate plenty of scoring chances in Wednesday’s matchup. The trio combined for 19 attempts on goal, eight shots on goal, and 2.19 expected goals. They ranked first, second, and third in individual expected goals in the matchup among Canucks skaters

Tyler Myers suffered an undisclosed injury in Wednesday’s matchup, and is considered doubtful to play in this game.
Thatcher Demko is expected to start in goal. He holds a +1.6 GSAx rating and .888 save percentage in 21 games played this season.

By no means should we expect Rick Tocchet’s crew to roll over and accept missing the playoffs, and it seems likely that the Canucks will exhibit a high level of urgency in this matchup. Still, it’s hard to argue there is reason to back the Canucks as heavy favourites right now when these two rosters are currently so even on paper.

This does look like a good spot to target Boeser recording over 2.5 shots once again after he cashed at +145 for us in the last matchup. He is the most talented scorer in the lineup, and should play close to 20 minutes once again in most game scripts considering the state of the Canucks roster.

He’s had 10 shots on goal over the last three games and cashed bets on over 2.5 shots on goal in all of those matchups. The price has come down considerably compared to Wednesday’s game, however the Ducks have allowed the second-most shots against in the league this season.