Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Thursday’s Pacific Division rematch between the Vancouver Canucks and Edmonton Oilers.
Canucks vs. Oilers Odds
Vancouver Canucks moneyline odds | +170 |
Edmonton Oilers moneyline odds | -190 |
Puck Line odds | Canucks +1.5 (-154), Oilers -1.5 (+136) |
Game Total odds | 5.5 goals (Over -112, Under +100) |
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Canucks (20-26 SU, 20-26 ATS, 23-22-1 O/U)
If last Saturday’s matchup against the Edmonton Oilers was the only Canucks game you watched this season, you might think they were the best team in the NHL. After all, Vancouver not only defeated the Oilers, they dominated them.
According to Evolving Hockey, the Canucks controlled roughly 70% of the expected goals and 56% of the shot attempts and looked particularly strong during five-on-five play, owning 75% of the expected goals and 60% of the shots. However, a few nights later, they were outplayed at even strength by the worst team in the Eastern Conference, the Buffalo Sabres.
The Canucks did outshoot the Sabres but once again failed to win consecutive games. Vancouver has not won two games in a row since defeating the Sabres on Nov. 29, and the Detroit Red Wings on Dec. 1. Vancouver started the season 10-2 on the road, but since Dec. 3, the Canucks are 2-4-4 away from home.
Scoring has been a big issue, as Vancouver has the worst goals per 60 minutes among road teams, and only one team has generated fewer high-danger shots per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Vancouver has been a profitable moneyline bet on the road, but just barely, and they have not generated a profit as underdogs away from home, winning just five of 13 games against home favourites.
Handicapping the Oilers (29-18 SU, 18-29 ATS, 20-26-1 O/U)
Edmonton will be seeking revenge on Thursday, but the Oilers will have to keep their emotions in check. That’s the opposite of what captain Connor McDavid did on Saturday in Vancouver, and he’s hurt his team’s chances of winning games as a result.
The Oilers played well versus Washington on Tuesday, owning nearly 70% of the shots and 65% of the expected goals, but not good enough to defeat Logan Thompson and the Capitals, who sit atop the NHL standings.
The Oilers moved to 2-2-0 without McDavid this season and 4-7-1 without him since the start of the 2021-22 season. However, Leon Draisaitl has stepped up in McDavid’s absence. The 29-year-old registered a goal and an assist in Tuesday’s loss to the Capitals, which gives him four goals and four assists in four games without No. 97 in 2024-25.
That said, while Draisaitl seems to raise his game in these situations, the team has scored just 2.33 goals per game without McDavid since 2021-22, compared to 3.65 goals per game with him in the lineup. That means more pressure is on goaltender Stuart Skinner to hold the opposition’s offence to two or fewer goals. The Oilers don’t seem to be able to win a game without McDavid unless he does that.
The Oilers have won 15 of 23 games as home favourites this season, but that hasn’t been enough to outperform their implied odds, so they haven’t been a profitable bet overall.
Best Bet for Canucks vs. Oilers
Leon Draisaitl Over 1.5 Points (+111) at Pinnacle
Draisaitl has registered multiple points in three straight games and six of his last nine. In fact, he’s registered two or more points in 25 out of 47 games this season and three out of the four games that he’s played without McDavid. Draisaitl has only had four multi-point performances in 12 regular season games against Vancouver since 2021-22, but he has registered at least one point in 11 of those games ,and I put more stock into his current form than his history against the Canucks.
