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Making moves on the draft floor

Jan 20, 2016, 15:00 ESTUpdated:
Asset management has become a popular term of late, as teams try to separate themselves with an equal amount of money and pieces at their disposal. The idea of selling high and buying low is becoming a key thought process to get any advantage you can, as managing a hockey team is basically an efficiency contest. This also relates to not letting your pending free agents walk on July 1st without accruing anything in return.
This topic du jour is often remarked upon in this space, as the Canucks are not in a position to let their assets fade into nothingness, yet they have so often in these last two seasons. Not trading or re-signing pending unrestricted free agents is the worst thing a halfway-rebuilding franchise can allow. The Canucks did that with Shawn Matthias and Brad Richardson last year and hopefully, they’ve learned their lesson
Only time will tell, as this year they’ve been dealt a similar situation, with the ability to bring in a much larger haul, with Dan Hamhuis and Radim Vrbata. There are other ways to maximize returns on already held pieces and one such method is trading draft picks. An exercise we’ll discuss in full, on the other side of the jump
As the year goes on, a plethora of draft rankings from a variety of sources and hockey minds are released in kind. The extent of these rankings often varies, with some doing as few as the top hundred and others going the full seven rounds. Compiling those lists can give you an idea of where all the draft eligible players are expected to go. Pitting these lists against your own, you can draw a more empirical and objective idea of where some of the players you’ve keyed in on might land. Obviously, this method is suspect to deviations and variance alike, but it’s still the safest bet.
This relates to the Canucks and their most recent drafts. I wouldn’t go so far as to suggest the picks themselves weren’t bad, as I’ve been a fan of Benning’s work at the draft to this point in Vancouver. Just that the Canucks could have their cake and eat it too, with more prudent usage of the picks allotted them going into the draft.
One very efficient and easy way to accumulate more picks is to trade down on the draft floor. Quite a few teams do this regularly – such as the Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs (recently) and Detroit Red Wings. So if these teams have an eye on a specific player, but feel that they can get them slightly lower than their current draft position, they leverage this to acquire more picks for later in that draft or the following year.
After some quick research, the last time the Canucks did this was at the 2011 NHL Entry Draft where they traded the 60th overall pick for the 70th and 100th overall picks. There wasn’t a similar transaction, all the way back to 1995. So that means in the last 20 years, the Canucks have made one trade on the draft floor where they move back to acquire more picks.
There’s more than a few examples from the last two drafts where the Canucks could’ve done exactly that. Obviously, we are not privy to the conversations and dealings with NHL GM’s, so with that, this is more of an exploration on where and how the Canucks could’ve accumulated more assets while still acquiring the players that they hoped for.
Let’s start with 2014 3rd round pick Nikita Tryamkin, who at the time was an over-age defenceman from the KHL that the Canucks deemed worthy of the 66th Overall selection at the 2014 NHL Draft. Nineteen months later, and Tryamkin is looking like a decent bet to challenge for an NHL roster in a few years. But picking an overage player, that early likely isn’t the best option available and Elliotte Friedman had a poignant quote about Tryamkin in the November 17th edition of “30 Thoughts” about Tryamkin:
“I was like, ‘Who?’” one North American-based scout laughed last week. “Now, I’ve seen him. He’s going to be a player.”
Although that is one North American scout, it can be assumed that teams weren’t tripping over themselves to take Tryamkin in the third round. Tryamkin was ranked as the 65th European skater in the final Central Scouting rankings, thus grabbing him 66th overall was a bit of a reach. Looking at the draft board and trades completed on that day, there are two that are close to where the Canucks selected:
Obviously, the Detroit and Columbus trade is a less likely option for the Canucks to have been a part of, as the Red Wings likely saw that Dominic Turgeon was still available and was afraid someone was going to take him. However, it is still possible that the teams picking between 63rd (Blue Jackets pick) and 66th (Canucks pick) had their eyes on the players that they eventually selected, which was Calgary (Brandon Hickey) and Florida (Juho Lammikko). But the Arizona and Montreal trade is exactly what the Canucks should be trying to do. Arizona moved back 14 spots in the 3rd round and added an additional 4th round pick. The Coyotes were still able to grab Swedish forward Anton Karlsson, who has appeared at the last two World Juniors, at 87th overall.
This same theory applies to the Canucks 6th round pick, Kyle Pettit. Taken 156th overall in the 6th round, Kyle Pettit was ranked 161st amongst North American Skaters by Central Scouting but was seen as a player that likely would go undrafted when you add in the other categories. So, if Jim Benning liked what he saw in Pettit and wanted to make sure that he was added to the organization, there is reasonable belief that Pettit would’ve been available later in the 6th round or even the 7th round. There was a transaction between Winnipeg and Washington a few picks later and although Edward Pasquale was part of that trade, the Capitals gave up 3 picks to move up.
Lastly, there’s the much-ballyhooed selection of Mackenze Stewart in the 7th round of this draft. A great story, as Stewart has dealt with deafness and a late entry into the sport. Once again, if Benning saw something that he liked and wanted to ensure that Stewart was a part of the Canucks organization, then that’s fine but along the same thought process, the Canucks could’ve landed Stewart later in the round. So, looking at the draft board, the Tampa Bay Lightning traded their 2015 7th round pick and 2014 7th round pick to move up 15 spots and draft Cameron Darcy the pick right before the Canucks. Although that is a minor trade, it is still another pick that the Canucks could’ve added to their stable.
The more pressing example in Benning’s most recent draft, is Adam Gaudette, who was taken in the fifth round of the 2015 Draft. Although he was ranked 108th by Central Scouting prior to the draft, he was an older player for his draft year, committed to Northeastern University who has never put up good offensive numbers in the USHL. So based on that ranking, the argument could be made that the Canucks were fortunate to snag him at 149th overall. But Gaudette likely isn’t a player who will amount to a successful NHL career, and he may prove us wrong, but if the Canucks missed out on him, then it wasn’t the end of the world. With this case, there were no trades that were completed close to the Canucks pick but if the thought process and execution were there, I am confident the Canucks could’ve found a match.
This can even be applied to picks that were well regarded, as Canucks defensive prospect Carl Neill was an undrafted overage player who the Canucks grabbed 5 picks before Gaudette. It is now looking like a steal in the late 5th round, but given Neill was unranked, the Canucks may have been able to snag him a little later.
As mentioned above, this isn’t to nit-pick or criticize Benning on his drafting, but rather a suggestion that in a weighted lottery there’s value added in having more tickets. I wouldn’t even go so far as to suggest I’m privy to the information at their disposal as they pondered each of the aforementioned selections. Being aggressive in accumulating assets or landing more ‘spins at the draft wheel’ is a very prudent way of doing business and something that Canucks management should look at more extensively.
By making these small adds on the draft floor, it also allows the Canucks to have more moveable assets during the season. So if a player like Emerson Etem becomes available again, they are able to trade a pick for him without sacrificing their own pick.
Given the Canucks reticence to use this avenue of player development and asset accruement, along with their stated goal of remaining competitive throughout the rebuild, this is an avenue well worth taking a stroll through. We are obviously months away from the draft, but with the trade deadline approaching, this same line of thinking can be applied to players like Yannick Weber, Brandon Prust and Matt Bartkowski. No matter how small the transaction, the accumulation of assets should be paramount in the minds of the front office.
So far, Benning has backed up the notion that he has a good eye for young hockey talent, so personally, I would want to give him as many picks as possible.
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