Not to be left behind in the opening salvo of trade deadline deals, the Canucks launched a volley of their own, acquiring Markus Granlund from the Calgary Flames in exchange for Hunter Shinkaruk.

The move reunites Shinkaruk with what looked to be his presumptive home, just minutes before the Canucks selected him with the 24th overall pick in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft. For Granlund, it’s representative of a fresh start, not all that dissimilar to the one the Canucks granted his former, now current teammate, Sven Baertschi. 

Shinkaruk’s rising popularity, scoring touch and all-around likeability made the deal a difficult one for Canucks fans to stomach. At first glance, the trade represents a risk-averse maneuver, bent towards turning a high-ceiling, high-risk prospect into a surefire, bona fide NHL forward with a lower ceiling.

You can’t put a price on peace of mind and the Canucks think they’ve bought a slice by taking another fringe forward off the peripheries of their divisional rivals lineup. The cruel irony being they’ve placed a damage deposit on a deal that can come back to haunt them for years to come. 

Shinkaruk was the fifth-ranked prospect in the Canucks Army Prospect Profile series this summer and it’s hard to imagine his stock has gone anywhere but up since. After a tumultuous first pro season with the Utica Comets, Shinkaruk has turned the corner and developed into an AHL All-Star and near point per game scorer under Travis Green. 

Two years removed from a devastating hip injury – which required surgery and stole a year of development – Shinkaruk appears to be developing into the high-end finisher he was projected as. The Comets leaned heavily on Shinkaruk, deploying him on their first line and first unit power play. 

This brings us to the Canucks primary concern regarding Shinkaruk’s game, which was where the goals were coming from. Canucks general manager, Jim Benning, touched on this when speaking to Jason Botchford of The Province…

It’s odd commentary on a number of levels, but not without some footing in reality. Would a goal by any other shot location not ring as sweet, though? It shouldn’t matter where the goals are scored, so much as the quantity. To that exact end, Shinkaruk’s proven himself a serviceable forward in the professional ranks with his sophomore season. Shinkaruk’s lower body strength has improved enough to counter his size too, which makes him a force on the puck.

Where fact meets fiction is the environment Shinkaruk is succeeding in. A quick gander at Shinkaruk’s even-strength primary point production at the AHL level reveals he’s not in the top-100 players on a per game basis. In fact, power play points account for nearly 50% of his production.

It’s fair to wonder what extent team effects are muddying the bigger picture, though. Shinkaruk’s had a rotating cast of setup men at center, none of which scream offensive dynamo – much less NHL talent. It’s possible, likely even, that with Cal O’Reilly as his center this season, we’re talking about a player well above a point per game at the AHL level. 

Based on Shinkaruk’s glowing junior resume and relative success to this point in his young professional career, the odds are stacked in his favour of developing into an NHL forward – all things being relative. In fact, Shinkaruk has as good a chance as any in his age group of developing into an impactful NHL player.

The symbiotic relationship between ceiling and floor is becoming plain to see. If all signs point to Shinkaruk as carrying a high-threshold for offensive production, it’s not the end of the world if he misses in that role. The thing about an average-to-above average checking forward is that they are generally a first round “bust”.

A betting man might avoid putting all his chips on Shinkaruk becoming the former, but it’s a risk worth carrying, even if it jeopardizes the latter. Scoring can’t be taught.

The younger brother of Mikael Granlund, Markus comes to Vancouver at 22-years old, with a scoring history of his own on which to hang his hat. The Flames plucked Granlund from the Finnish men’s league, Liiga, with the 45th overall selection in the 2011 Draft. Granlund plied his trade there another two seasons, before making the jump to North American hockey with the Abbottsford Heat in the 2013-14 season. 

That Granlund played professionally in his draft year – if only for two games – bode well for his likelihood of NHL success; as did his every stay in the AHL. As a key cog on a powerhouse AHL side, Granlund was third in team scoring at just under a point per game.

Granlund has struggled to translate this success to the NHL level since. Not for a lack of opportunities either. Granlund has suited up for 86-games at the NHL level, posting 28-points in that span. Those numbers don’t jump off the page, but it’s a roughly third-line pace over the course of a full season.

It’s suiting that Granlund has produced offence at such a modest pace, given that even the most optimistic prognosticators will tell you that’s his ceiling. Granlund’s game is predicated on intelligence and his ability to slow the game down more than anything. His speed won’t jump off the screen, nor will his shot or offensive knack. This modesty plays as a positive on his side of the red line though. 

The Canucks hope they develop Granlund into a swiss army knife, using him on either the left-wing or at center, depending on what the situation calls for. That kind of positional dexterity likely played a role in the Canucks targeting Granlund. When Benning won the Stanley Cup with Boston in 2011, he did so icing a team with six natural centers in the lineup.

Granlund could, in theory, develop into a top-six forward at the NHL level. Anything is possible. Granlund is 23 on the other side of April though. Forwards generally peak in the age 24 season and this is a player that’s not a full-time NHL forward at 23. It’s highly unlikely this is a top-six forward, but this probability isn’t destiny anyways. 

This acquisition raises familiar flags in and around the Canucks front office. That they felt the need to complete this trade now indicates they are willing to weigh long-term benefits, for short-term certainty, in an effort to chase the playoffs. Granlund can play now and I can’t imagine the Canucks have any plans to the contrary, especially in the wake of losing Brandon Sutter for the remainder of the season.

The Canucks took another .45 out of the chamber and loaded the buckshot aiming for a high-end prospect. The thing about approaching a prospect pool by volume is that eventually there isn’t enough space. The Canucks can land another nine Granlund’s and won’t be any closer to contention. At some point, they have to hit for the fences.

In my estimation, Shinkaruk had the highest offensive ceiling in the Canucks prospect pool. He likely has the highest with Calgary, too.

If the Canucks felt the fence against their backs with Shinkaruk, imagine how they’ll feel when they take a gander at their center depth. Ahead of Granlund are Henrik Sedin, Jared McCann, Linden Vey, Brandon Sutter and Bo Horvat. Do they give Granlund the winger spot they apparently didn’t have for Shinkaruk?

That’s a problem that will bear down on them as early as next September. Granlund’s waiver eligibility will force their hand one way or the other, as they will run the risk of losing him for nothing if he can’t crack a healthy Canucks roster. Is that a scenario this management group can afford in a post-Frankie Corrado landscape?

Vancouver might have acquired a third line forward, entering his physical peak, on a team controlled contract for the foreseeable future. It cost them a lottery ticket with a higher pool than the sum of its cost might suggest. Rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic and sinking lifeboats for the trouble.