The Vancouver Canucks have a problem. Actually, that’s a wild understatement. The Vancouver Canucks have a multitude of problems.
The problem that’s caught the attention of both local and national media is the internal rift between J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson. Outside of hockey, there are several ways to solve problems. Within hockey, there are usually two solutions to every problem. The first is to fire the coach. The second is to get rid of the player. The Canucks will not be getting rid of Rick Tocchet any time soon. That leaves option number two as the most logical step.
Now, all this assumes Miller and Pettersson can’t solve their problems. As much as everyone calls for the two to act like adults, there are certain situations where you are just around someone you revile and the only way to go on with your life is to cut them out of it. If one or both are insisting that’s the case, then there really isn’t any other logical option than to trade one of them.
Once a commitment is made to trade one or both of them, the next step would be to solicit offers. I don’t know about you, but I’m not a General Manager of an NHL team. I’ve never worked in the front office of a major sports organization. I’m not even a connected hockey insider who can call up management teams or agents and ask questions. I can look through past trades, offer up some comparables, and use those as a baseline for what a trade of either player would look like.
One stumbling block in finding comparables for both players is that they are each in rare situations regarding their age, production, and contract status.
J.T. Miller
He’s 31 years old, turns 32 in March, and has averaged more than a point per game in the regular season since joining the Canucks. He is signed for five more seasons at an $8M cap hit with a full no-movement clause for this season. His no-movement clause becomes a 15-team no-trade clause in the last three seasons of his contract. He takes up 9.1% of the salary cap. It’s rare for a player as productive, on a long-term contract, and in his 30s to get traded. Though, there is a very recent example: Tomáš Hertl.
Tomáš Hertl, a third (2025), & a third (2027) for David Edstrom & a first (2025)(Hertl retained at 17.05%)
Hertl was traded at last season’s trade deadline. He was one year younger than Miller is now and had six seasons left on his contract. Like Miller, Hertl is a centre and has a full no-move clause. However, there is one stark difference between the two: Miller has been a far more productive player since coming to Vancouver than Hertl has been during the same time frame.
Prior to being traded, Hertl averaged 0.78 points per game (PPG) in the 307 games he played since Miller joined the Canucks, a significant drop from Miller’s. Over the same time frame, Miller has played 364 games with a 1.10 PPG. This should reflect a substantial value difference between the two players, and Miller should have quite a bit more value and not require any retention in order to garner a greater return than Hertl.
Edstrom was the last player selected in the first round of the 2023 draft, and the first-round pick the Sharks acquired from the Golden Knights in 2024 was 27th overall. Both are good assets, but neither, or an equivalent, would have any particular interest to the Canucks. As it turns out, neither were actually that highly thought of by the Sharks either, as both were flipped – along with goalie prospect Magnus Chrona – to the Nashville Predators for goaltender Yaroslav Askarov and other minor pieces.
Still, this is the best recent comparable. It’s not necessarily useful in constructing an accurate trade proposal but stands as a firm floor when figuring out trade value. Miller is a better player with a lower cap hit for fewer years than when Hertl was traded. Therefore, will have a greater return in asset value.
Elias Pettersson
While trading a young point-per-game centre right as their long-term contract kicks in is rare, it has happened before. There are four good examples of this, and while three of them happened over 10 years ago, the general framework of the trades is still relevant.
The parameters for Pettersson are pretty basic: Mid-20s, signed to a long-term contract, no trade protection (in the first year), plays centre, and close to Pettersson’s production. Of all the trades listed below, Pettersson takes up the highest percentage of the cap at 13.2%, but he also has the highest points per game (0.99 PPG) of all these players.
Jeff Carter for Jakub Voracek, a first-round pick (2011, 8th overall, Sean Couturier) and a third-round pick (2011, 68th overall, Nick Cousins)
The first comparable we’ll look at is Jeff Carter getting traded from the Philadelphia Flyers to the Columbus Blue Jackets. Carter had signed a massive 11-year extension the season prior, but the Flyers traded him before it began.
Carter and Pettersson’s goal scoring is indistinguishable from each other (181 goals for Carter vs. 180 goals for Pettersson), but Pettersson’s playmaking far outpaces Carter. Additionally, Carter’s points per game is the lowest of Pettersson’s comparables at 0.74 PPG. At the time of the trade, Carter’s cap hit took up 8.2% of the salary cap.
Vorcak, at the time, was a 22-year-old with three full NHL seasons under his belt while averaging about 46 points a season. He was a former seventh-overall pick and very highly thought of. The first-round pick was eighth overall in the 2011 draft, and the Flyers took Sean Couturier. This was quite a good return, given that these two assets held a lot of value.
Sticking with Jeff Carter, he’s also the next comparable. Columbus traded him to the Los Angeles Kings just 39 games into his Blue Jackets tenure.
Jeff Carter for Jack Johnson & a first-round pick (2013, 27th overall, Marko Dano)
At the time, Johnson was considered a highly talented but flawed young defenceman. The actual value of a first-round pick is attributed to where the pick is slated in the first round. A later-round pick, as this was, magnitudes less valuable than even a mid-first-round selection. Ultimately, the Blue Jackets gave up far more to get Carter than they did when they traded him away only a few months later.
Carter struggled with injuries in his brief time with the Blue Jackets, breaking his foot and separating his shoulder. This is relevant as Pettersson is currently injured and has publicly stated he’s figuring out how to play through knee tendinitis, which has been bothering him. Recurring injuries can depress a player’s trade value.
Related to both Jeff Carter trades is the move that sent his former, then eventual future, teammate Mike Richards to the Kings.
Mike Richards & Rob Bordson for Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn, & a second-round pick (2012, 61st overall, traded with a 2013 3rd for Nicklas Grossman)
Richards had a similar 0.77 PPG but shined with a 0.80 PPG in the playoffs. He was three seasons into a 12-year contract he signed with the Flyers. He had a slightly higher cap hit than Carter, taking up 8.9% of the salary cap, and is closer, statistically, to Pettersson.
Simmonds was a 23-year-old winger who had already played three full seasons in the NHL and averaged around 32 points in those seasons. Schenn was considered one of the top prospects in the world and had immense trade value. These were the two core pieces going to the Flyers. Both were extremely valuable young players who were expected to make an impact in the NHL in very short order.
The last comparable is the most recent and closest to Pettersson, statistically: Jack Eichel.
Jack Eichel & third-round pick (2023, 77th overall, Mathieu Cataford) for Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs, a first-round pick (2022, 16th overall, Noah Ostlund), and second-round pick (2023, 64th overall, traded with a 2024 5th for Jordan Greenway)
Eichel, like Pettersson, had injury concerns that created a disagreement with management and was very close to a point-per-game player over the course of his career. Eichel’s contract took up 12.3% of the salary cap but only had five years remaining compared to Pettersson’s seven years.
At the time of the trade, Tuch was 25 years old and coming off two full, very productive seasons in Vegas and two more injury-plagued seasons where his production waned. Krebs was a well-thought-of former mid-first-round pick who had a cup of coffee in the NHL over two seasons and was just starting his professional career. The first-round pick was also quite valuable as it was slated to be in the middle of the first round rather than at the end.
However, none of the assets acquired by the Sabres were seen as elite talent. This was a reflection of the standoff between Eichel and the Sabres over his neck injury. Eichel wanted disc replacement surgery, something that had not been done on an NHL player, and the Sabres wanted to take a more conservative approach. This led to Eichel requesting a trade.
The market for Eichel was smaller than it normally would have been because other NHL teams shared the Sabres view on the surgery. With Pettersson, there may be concerns with his knee tendonitis, but it is not widely viewed as debilitating.
What all this means
It’s pretty unprecedented for players of Miller and Pettersson’s calibre to be on the trade block in any capacity.
Even if the Canucks are only soliciting offers for possible future purposes, neither player requesting a trade is quite different from how trades usually happen in the NHL. However, both Pettersson and Miller should be more valuable than their comparables. They both have produced at a higher pace than their trade contemporaries.
One thing to consider for Canucks fans looking to trade them, both the Kings and Golden Knights quickly went on to win the Stanley Cup after trading for Carter, Richards, and Eichel. The team giving up the best player almost always loses the trade. So, when crafting trade proposals, these are decent baselines to use, but be aware: It is rare for the selling team to come out on top.
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