The Tom Willander contract standoff with the Vancouver Canucks is about to enter its second month.

This time, we’ve got to take our hats off to our colleagues in the media, who have apparently and absolutely nailed the reporting on this. From the get-go, it was rumoured that the holdup was a disagreement between Willander’s camp and the Canucks about the amount of performance bonuses that would be included in his contract.

At first, that may have sounded a little silly. First, Willander’s agent spoke on the issue and confirmed as much. Then, Willander himself spoke on it, and while he kept it vague, he was adamant that there was no dispute over playing time or burning a year off the deal or anything like that – just the bonuses.

But, hey, that’s only one side of the story. Perhaps the Canucks’ front office had a different perspective? But then, earlier this week, Jim Rutherford continued his media tour by talking candidly about the halted negotiations between the Canucks and Willander.

According to the POHO, the Canucks offered Willander a contract structured “same as what the 11th overall pick got last year.’’ Rutherford also noted that he thought, “It’s not like we’re being too hard on him, we think we’re being fair.”

Now, the fairness of these offers and statements is up for debate. But it can’t be argued that we’ve now got a rare and surprisingly intimate view into this back-and-forth…and it does seem to exclusively hinge on bonuses. Whether signing- or performance-related, bonuses are the only major difference in what an individual player can earn on their entry-level contracts.

In fact, if Rutherford’s statement can be taken as an exact truth, we know exactly what the Canucks are offering Willander. Which means we can begin a little opining on whether or not that’s the kind of final offer he deserves.

There’s a little ambiguity to be worked through here. When Rutherford says “same as what the 11^th overall pick got last year,” one wonders whether he means “last year” as in the most recent draft of 2024, or whether he means the year prior to Willander’s draft, which was 2022.

Either way, we know who was drafted at 11 overall in those years – Conor Geekie in 2022, and Sam Dickinson in 2024 – and we know what those players were eventually signed for.

But first, let’s talk maximums.

The maximum base salary for an ELC was $950,000 for players drafted in 2022 and 2023, like Geekie and Willander. It was increased to $975,000 for players drafted in 2024, like Dickinson.

As part of that maximum, ELC players are eligible to receive signing bonuses of up to 10% of their base salary. So, for Geekie and Willander’s draft class, that’s a max of $95,000, and for Dickinson, it was $97,500 – but those amounts count toward the $950,000/$975,000 cap.

Then come the performance bonuses, which are where things get complicated. Thankfully, these maximums kicked in as of July 1, 2022, meaning they apply the same to all three of Geekie, Willander, and Dickinson.

Performance bonuses are split into ‘A’ and ‘B’ level bonuses. A-level bonuses are worth $250,000 each, up to a maximum of $1,000,000, or four bonuses. That money is only earned and only goes against the cap when the bonus thresholds are hit. A-level bonuses can be earned for a wide number of things, and the thresholds vary based on the position the player plays.

For Willander, a defender, A-level bonuses are achieved for any of 10 goals, 25 assists, 40 points, top-four in ice-time, top-three in +/-, 0.49 points-per-game, top-two on the team in blocked shots, All-Rookie Team selection, All-Star selection, and All-Star MVP.

But remember, only the first four of those achievements, max, can count toward A-level bonuses.

B-level bonuses work differently. They are worth up to a maximum of $2,500,000, but that maximum amount of compensation is triggered if any of the related thresholds are hit. For a defender like Willander, those thresholds are being top-10 amongst NHL defenders in goals, assists, points, ice-time, or PPG, or by winning any of the Hart, Richard, Norris, Conn Smythe trophies, or by being selected to the year-end First or Second All-Star Team.

A-level bonuses must be maxed out before B-level bonuses can be added. So, if a player has just $1,000,000 in performance bonuses attached to their deal, they’re all A-level. That becomes important later.

Okay, so now that we know the boundaries of negotiations, let’s see what the other recent 11 overall picks received on their ELCs.

Geekie signed first in July of 2022, just a month or so after being drafted. His ELC came with a max base salary and signing bonus amount of $855,000 + $95,000 for a total of $950,000.

In terms of bonuses, Geekie only received A-level bonuses. In the first of his three-year ELC, those bonuses max out to $525,000. In year two, they’re up to $775,000. In year three, they rise to $1,000,000.

What that means is that Geekie doesn’t hit the maximum amount of A-level bonuses until the third year of his ELC, and never had any B-level bonuses on the table.

Dickinson also signed shortly after being drafted in July of 2024. He could be seen as a more direct comparison to Willander, as both are defenders.

Dickinson, too, received the maximum amount of base salary and signing bonus, which for him was $877,500 + $97,500 for a total of $975,000.

From there, Dickinson received essentially the same bonus package as Geekie, with a couple of upticks in value to match the rise in cap between 2022 and 2024. Dickinson received only A-level bonuses, with the maximum value set at $550,000 in year one, then $800,000 in year two, and then that maximum amount of $1,000,000 in year three.

For bonus structures like these, it works so that the first A-level bonuses hit earn the max amount ($250,000) and then the next A-level bonuses hit fill in the rest of the capped value. So, if Dickinson were to say, score 10 goals and earn 25 assists in his first ELC year, he’d earn $500,000 for those two A-level accomplishments. If he were to hit 40 points thereafter, he’d earn the remaining $50,000 of his maximum $550,000. If he hit a fourth threshold, he wouldn’t get anything extra, because he agreed to the max of $550,000 in that year.

And that brings us to Willander. If Rutherford’s word was authentic, and not metaphorical, it stands to reason that Willander has received an offer with maximum base salary and signing bonus, and then A-level bonuses of a little more than half the max in his first year, a little more than three-quarters of the max in year two, and the full max for year three. And that he was not offered any B-level bonuses of any kind.

We’ve heard, repeatedly, that the amount separating Willander and the Canucks right now is some ‘$200,000.’ This could mean a couple of different things. It could mean that Willander and his camp want more A-level bonuses included in years one or two of the ELC. Or, it could mean that Willander wants B-level bonuses attached to year three. From our perspective, the latter is more likely.

On the surface, it seems fair enough that Willander would be offered the same bonus package as the 11 overall picks that came both before and after him. But there’s also a key distinction here, and it’s in the timing.

Both Geekie and Dickinson signed within a month or so of their draft date. Willander did not. He’s skated in two NCAA seasons for Boston University since being drafted, and he’s developed quite well during those two years.

Some may argue that draftees are at their most valuable immediately following their selection. But then that only really applies to draftees in general. Those who are drafted and then continue to progress toward NHL-readiness could definitely be seen as more valuable. And most scouts seem to agree that Willander has displayed a high amount of NHL-readiness in his two seasons at BU.

Willander’s camp could be arguing that Willander’s two subsequent years of development have increased his value beyond where it was when he was drafted 11^th overall. Or, they may just see him as a better prospect than Geekie or Dickinson. Or, perhaps, some combination of the two.

But in looking into Geekie and Dickinson’s contracts, we can at least gain some valuable insight into the exact nature of these negotiations. The fairness of it all, and what Willander truly deserves, remains up for debate.

But the numbers seem fairly concrete and apparent.

At least now, we know where the Canucks have drawn their line in the sand.