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Comparing trades is like comparing snowflakes
alt
Patrick Johnston
Mar 3, 2012, 15:39 ESTUpdated: Mar 3, 2012, 15:21 EST
So the next great Linden is gone. The boy named after salmon is no more. Cue the next cliche.
Comparisons get made all the time, and two have already emerged – the Cam Neely trade and the Markus Naslund trade. But is either really a good comparison?
On Friday, Jonathan Willis had a look at the Naslund trade and showed us why every trade is like a snowflake. Trying to find patterns is good, but they aren’t always there. Let’s take a look at another trade which some might want to compare to Zack Kassian for Cody Hodgson.

CAM NEELY AND A FIRST ROUND PICK (GLEN WESLEY) FOR BARRY PEDERSON

At the age of 21, future hall-of-famer Neely was traded from a team that had won 23 games in 85-86, to a team which won 39 games in 86-87. He went from playing 2nd and 3rd line minutes for the Canucks to mostly 1st line minutes for the Bruins. With his increased ice time, Neely took to shooting, going from 113 shots in his last season with the Canucks to 206 shots in his first with the Bruins. His shooting percentage ‘sank’ to just 12.4 per cent in 85-86 but rebounded to 17.5 per cent in Boston (his career mark is 18.4 per cent). Neely needed the ice time – the Canucks in the mid-80s weren’t known to be the most astute organization in the world, so we shouldn’t be surprised they didn’t take the ‘risk’ on Neely.
 
Age
Team
 
GP
G
A
Pts
 
+/-
PIM
EV
PP
SH
GW
SH
SH%
1983-84
18
VAN
NHL
56
16
15
31
 
0
57
13
3
0
1
87
18.4
1984-85
19
VAN
NHL
72
21
18
39
 
-26
137
17
4
0
1
138
15.2
1985-86
20
VAN
NHL
73
14
20
34
 
-30
126
8
6
0
3
113
12.4
1986-87
21
BOS
NHL
75
36
36
72
 
23
143
29
7
0
3
206
17.5
1987-88
22
BOS
NHL
69
42
27
69
 
30
175
31
11
0
3
207
20.3
Coming the other way was Barry Pederson, a still-young centre, just two seasons removed from putting up 116 points as a 22-year-old. However, he just would never be the same. He’d had two major shoulder surgeries in 84-85 to treat a benign tumour. In one surgery, muscle had to be removed.
 
Age
Team
 
GP
G
A
Pts
 
+/-
PIM
EV
PP
SH
GW
SH
SH%
1981-82
20
BOS
NHL
80
44
48
92
 
27
53
27
13
4
7
197
22.3
1982-83
21
BOS
NHL
77
46
61
107
 
38
47
30
15
1
10
212
21.7
1983-84
22
BOS
NHL
80
39
77
116
 
27
64
26
10
3
7
236
16.5
1984-85
23
BOS
NHL
22
4
8
12
 
-11
10
2
0
2
0
35
11.4
1985-86
24
BOS
NHL
79
29
47
76
 
19
60
17
12
0
6
192
15.1
1986-87
25
VAN
NHL
79
24
52
76
 
-13
50
18
6
0
3
184
13.0
1987-88
26
VAN
NHL
76
19
52
71
 
2
92
14
4
1
1
163
11.7
1988-89
27
VAN
NHL
62
15
26
41
 
5
22
7
7
1
0
98
15.3
Clearly this reduced him as a player. In his first full season back, he was still a point-a-game player but he now had to battle Ken Linseman for the no.1 centre spot. What’s more, his shooting percentage fell from a pre-injury 16-22 per cent to 12-13 per cent. His shot total declined from 236 in 83-84 (his last season pre-surgeries) to 184 in his first season with the Canucks.
As a trade, it wasn’t terrible – Pederson appeared to be a known quantity, while Neely presented risks (but loads of potential). If it had been one for one, it might have been a little more tolerable, though still pretty bad. It’s giving up a quality first round pick, the fact that Pederson’s production fell off a cliff and the player that Neely ultimately became that made this trade a complete disaster.
When the trade was made, the risk of giving up Neely was known. Would a trade like this happen today? It’s hard to imagine it. In any case, this is not the same trade as the Hodgson for Kassian swap.

AGAIN, KASSIAN IS DIFFERENT

For a start, he’s not the prospect in this trade with an auspicious injury history. He’s not the offensive talent that Cody Hodgson is, we know that, but what Kassian does have are the hands that Stojanov was thought to have had. Kassian ripped up the AHL in the first half of this season. There is no reason to think his development curve will stall and that he won’t be a legitimate goal scoring threat in the NHL level at some point.
Will he be a first liner? That’s unclear. Will he be a 20-goal scorer? Probably; certainly there’s little reason to think he won’t (of course there’s no clear reason to think ‘yes’, other than his past prowess). Most importantly: unlike Stojanov and Pederson; Kassian been healthy so far in his career, even with his moments of recklessness and poor judgment.