We’ve spent an awful lot of time this offseason talking about the Vancouver Canucks and their ability to stay under the salary cap. And with good reason! Through a bevy of off- and preseason injuries, GM Patrik Allvin and Co. have battled it out to keep out of “LTIR” and get themselves into the territory of accruing daily cap, and that’s going to matter this year.
Something we haven’t talked nearly as much about, but that is no less important to the Canucks’ ultimate fate in 2024/25, is the financial situation of those teams around them. Specifically, their main Pacific Division competitors are the Edmonton Oilers and the Vegas Golden Knights.
But perhaps we should have been giving those teams and their books more attention because, as it stands now, both are in at least as good or slightly better budgetary shape than the Canucks, and that creates a brand-new challenge for the Canucks to consider as they prepare for the campaign to come: keeping ahead of near-guaranteed in-season improvements from both the Oilers and the Golden Knights.
Let’s start down in Nevada. This news will come as a shock to many of you, but the Vegas Golden Knights have recently had a salary cap-related decision go heavily in their favour, despite it seeming to go against the spirit and letter of the law.
*Insert the GIF of Jesse Pinkman from Breaking Bad screaming “He can’t keep getting away with this!”*
As our own Michael Liu covered with appropriate bitterness earlier in the week, the NHL and NHLPA jointly decided that the situation with Robin Lehner was unique enough to warrant a unique solution. That solution was Lehner having his full contract paid out to him but with his remaining $5 million cap hit for this upcoming season removed entirely from Vegas’ books.
We’re not here to make any light of Lehner’s individual situation. It’s pretty obvious that he has a number of personal challenges in his life right now, and his achieving health and balance is really the only thing of any real importance here. We wish him nothing but the best on a journey far more significant than hockey.
In that sense, we are glad that Lehner will receive the full salary due to him.
But the “get-out-of-cap-hit-free” card that the Golden Knights were just handed is a different matter. That benefits them, not Lehner. And it’s simply a convenience that has not been afforded to any other team with a player out of the lineup for any other reason.
Look, the situation is unique enough that if it were any other NHL franchise, we could probably let it slide. But these are the Vegas Golden Knights, a team that has been flaunting the apparent optionality of the salary cap since their very inception.
This is the team that puts Mark Stone on LTIR whenever they need more cap space, only to have him mysteriously return to health in time for Game 1 of the playoffs, time and time again. This is the team that has entered the postseason with a total cap hit approaching $100 million in each of the past two years.
It hits a little different when the Golden Knights have yet another interpretation of the supposedly ironclad CBA fall in their favour.
Now, with Lehner’s contract off the books entirely, the Golden Knights found themselves a full $1,460,017 under the salary cap. And that’s with a full roster of 23 healthy skaters after the recent signing of former Canuck Tanner Pearson.
Already, that amount is set to accrue daily and could add up to about $6 million in accrued space by the Trade Deadline if it were maintained. The Knights could also increase their amount of retention by running with a roster of fewer than 23, something they’ve proven very comfortable with in recent years. Thus, the amount they have on hand by the deadline could be significantly more.
Or significantly less. Almost immediately, William Karlsson went on IR to start the year, a waiver claim was made to compensate, and the amount of daily accrual went down; it is projected now to result in “just” $2.7 million and change by the deadline. But Karlsson will return, and that amount of daily accrual will increase, and the Golden Knights will be able to manage their amount of accrual a little easier than the Canucks.
And that’s not even considering the LTIR shenanigans Vegas could pull from there on out. Nothing is stopping them from spending their accrued space, putting someone on LTIR after that – maybe Mark Stone, just a random example – and then using that relief space to acquire even more talent.
This sets the Golden Knights up to once again go big-game hunting around the 2025 Trade Deadline like they did when they picked up Tomas Hertl last year. This, from a team already sporting a centre rotation of Hertl, Jack Eichel, William Karlsson, and Nicholas Roy and a defensive top-three of Alex Pietrangelo, Shea Theodore, and Noah Hanifin.
That makes getting ahead and staying ahead of the Golden Knights an even greater challenge for the Canucks, even if they manage to beat the odds and maximize their own accrual.
As we flip things over to Edmonton, we thankfully don’t find another Vegas situation laden with inequitable advantages. But we do find another Canucks rival with room to improve throughout the season.
On the Oilers’ end, that flexibility does come at a cost, and that cost is the lengthy absence of Evander Kane. A few weeks back, it was announced that Kane would need double sports hernia surgery, a procedure that will keep him out of action for months on end.
Kane was placed on the Oilers’ opening-day roster and then placed on LTIR immediately thereafter.
The Oilers were then, as of opening night, about $53 under the cap ceiling with Kane on the books, and not yet having invoked any of his LTIR relief space. That’s just the smallest accrual amount, projected to grow to just $242 by the deadline if maintained. That amount can increase considerably if the Oilers send a few of their call-ups down and continue with a smaller roster at any point in the future.
But what it actually is was a setup to maximize the potential relief space gained from Kane’s placement on LTIR, “capturing” nearly his full $5.125 million cap hit in spending room that can now be spent at any ol’ time…so long as the Oilers are prepared to eventually make room for Kane’s return at some point thereafter.
Unless…Kane truly is set to miss the entire regular season. Though we’d still bet on his being ready for the playoffs in that scenario, his being out until the point at which they stop counting the salary cap would allow the Oilers to essentially replace him at some point this season with any combination of players making the same amount as him.
This gives the Oilers multiple paths at in-season improvements. They can send some more players down and attempt to accrue enough cap space for an in-season acquisition, and then, if that isn’t enough, they’ve got that Kane LTIR cushion to start spending.
And the Oilers need an upgrade! Their blueline is currently quite suspect. But as the Canucks prepare to challenge the Oilers for the Pacific crown in 2024/25, they’ll have to do so with the knowledge that the Oilers almost certainly will be adding a significant blueliner to their roster. With this many avenues to improvement on hand, it’d be surprising if they didn’t. And that blueliner could come with a cap hit of around $5 million, or more if retention is involved.
And that’s where we stand. As the Canucks explore (AND ACHIEVE!) avenues to stay under the cap and maximize their own accrual, they’ll hope and scrape to maybe wind up hitting the 2025 Trade Deadline with about $5 million in effective spending room. Meanwhile, their two biggest intradivisional rivals are having multiple avenues toward genuine upgrades of at least that much, if not more, appear before them.
This may not be an insurmountable challenge for the Canucks in 2024/25, but it is an additional challenge all the same.
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