To sign Brock Boeser or not to sign Brock Boeser? That question is likely just one of many on Patrik Allvin and Jim Rutherford’s minds that keep them both up at night. That debate had me pondering what I would do if I were in their shoes until the projected deal of 7 years at $8 million annually ran across my Twitter/X feed. I then had no doubt which side of this debate I landed on. In the famous words of Randy Jackson: “That’s gonna be a no for me, dawg.”

There’s no denying that Brock Boeser can flat-out let it rip. The American winger is as natural of a goal scorer as they come, but coming off a career year, the sniper’s numbers have come crashing back to earth. Some may blame the Canucks’ dysfunction for Boeser’s off year, but I think it tells a larger story. That tale? Boeser’s ceiling is only as high as his linemates propel him and his team’s power play soars.

Boeser’s game is predicated on getting off his wicked shot. His footspeed limits how often he gets off his howitzer, meaning he relies on his spatial awareness in the offensive zone to sneak behind defenders for open looks instead of creating on his own. Boeser is at his best when the Canucks’ power play is firing on all cylinders.

He’s scored 69 of his 195 career goals on the power play. That’s 35% of his markers coming on the man advantage. There’s no doubt Boeser excels in these situations when the Canucks can slow play down, work the puck around, and play possession hockey, but when the other team isn’t at a disadvantage, and things are on even terms, his play dips drastically.

Boeser’s flaws are exacerbated at even strength. The eye test shows a player who doesn’t have the speed to separate and create chances on his own. A player who pops off the screen when on the powerplay disappears far too often at five-on-five.

His underlying stats tell a similar story. His CF% at even strength was 50.5 in his career year last season and is at 50.0 just halfway through this year, according to Hockey Reference. Those are solid but just average numbers for a player set for a massive payday.

Boeser’s play at even strength is one of the multiple red flags that make me skeptical of extending him. His -10 rating through 42 games has him on his way to finishing with the second-worst plus-minus of his career. Mind you, this is coming with a higher oZs% of 67.4%, higher than last year’s 64.0.

This is an indication of his inability to elevate his own line. With all the drama around the team and his fellow top-six forwards not playing elite hockey, Boeser hasn’t stepped up to fill that void. To me, an $8 million player should be able to do so.

He’s also giving the puck away more than he has in over three seasons. Finishing with just 21 giveaways each year from 2021-2024, Boeser already has 24 giveaways just past the halfway point this season. Trends like this will likely continue as Boeser’s skating and ability to separate deteriorates, which makes the term of his projected extension quite worrisome.

Boeser scores the majority of his goals in high-traffic areas in the high slot or right in front of the net. Other goal-scorers have lost their speed and are still finding a way to get to those spots using their strength, like John Tavares. Boeser lacks that aforementioned size and strength and, as it is, can’t afford to lose another gear. When Father Time makes that a reality, I foresee the sniper struggling to get to his favourite areas consistently, and his goal totals will show for it.

Boeser isn’t getting any faster, stronger or younger. If the eye test and his underlying stat trends continue by year three or four of his new deal, coaches will need to protect Boeser at even strength, and you’ll be paying him $8 million a year to be a power play specialist. Boeser had his career year last season, but it’s hard to envision him ever hitting the 40-goal mark again.

Players like Boeser are becoming less effective as the game gets faster and more skillful by the year. The Canucks would be wise to move on before the deadline rather than holding onto him for a potential playoff berth and losing him in the offseason for nothing in return. Front offices of true contenders will likely covet Boeser’s scoring ability. The team’s front offices should take full advantage of that and take the best deal on the table.

That trade doesn’t necessarily have to be for a prospect or draft pick. If the Mikko Rantanen trade taught us anything about the current state of the market, it’s that teams are willing to swap players at the top of their game for one another. This gives Canucks management plenty of options in a potential deal.

Patrik Allvin and Jim Rutherford can decide whether the former or the latter is the right call for the franchise. What they can’t do is choose to sign a future powerplay specialist to a contract of 7 years at $8 million dollars annually.