Why Alex Biega Was Late to Break Through

Not to be outdone by the Pittsburgh Penguins and Tom Sestito, the Vancouver Canucks announced a contract extension of their own yesterday, coming to terms on a two-year, one-way pact with Alex Biega, valued at $1.5-million.

It was the first one-way contract of Biega’s professional career and the dollar value in year one is $30,000 more than the combined AHL level income of his previous four deals combined – accounting for five plus years of professional hockey. This, at 27-years old, as a former fifth-round selection of the Buffalo Sabres. Safe to say the Biega family thoroughly enjoyed yesterday.

Just what took this underdog story so long to develop, anyways? By all accounts, Biega has been a steady – if unspectacular – blue liner at the AHL level for much of his professional career. Makes one wonder…

The league’s brain trust are likely more intelligent than you or I give them credit for. I can’t say with any degree of certainty that it’s a widely accepted fact in front offices that the general peak years of a hockey player fall in the 23-27-year-old window – 24 being the crown jewel. They are likely wise, though, to the law of diminishing returns and the decreased likelihood beyond a certain age that any player can crack the NHL in a substantial way.

Think of it as a cutoff. My rule of thumb is that a player ceases to be a prospect at 23-years old. Beyond that, they’re AHL depth or a journeyman. Even that seems generous. In Biega’s case, opting to go the University route for his developmental years meant entering the professional ranks at 21-years old. I don’t think that the number I came to is the one used by talent evaluators, but it’s certainly in their ballpark. By this metric, Biega was likely given a two-to-three year window to stand out from his peers and demand a call-up with his play.

Separating oneself from his peers is especially difficult when your set of skills aren’t necessarily represented on the scoresheet. As a defensive defender, Biega doesn’t really have much going for him beyond the archaic +/- ratings. Long-gone are the days when this stat carried any weight – which is likely for the best. 

So, again, as Biega marinated in the AHL and strayed further from the immediate plans of the men who held his contract, the inability to point to any one number or stat as standing out in a positive light didn’t help. If Biega were to make it, it would be based entirely on qualitative analysis. If Biega happens to have a bad night when the teams pro-scout is in town – or worse, the general manager – that will taint their perception of Biega going forward.

It also doesn’t help Biega’s cause that he’s on the undersized end of the spectrum, at just 5’10. Usually, size and thundering hits are associated with players in Biega’s role. He doesn’t really have either of those things going for them, whether they really matter or not.

Think about some of the interviews Jim Benning has done of late. The question du jour relates to how the Canucks will spend their first-round selection; not their second, third, fourth or fifth. Just the first. There’s a reason for this. After the first round, the odds are so heavily stacked against finding an NHL player that to the average fan it’s not even worth figuring out the names of some of these picks.

As teams move further and further from the first-round, so too does their investment in the player shrink. A first-round selection will be granted considerably more leeway and given many more opportunities than a fifth-rounder, based on merit or otherwise. Given that Biega was a fifth-round selection, it was pretty easy – convenient, even – to lose track of him. 

I’m still not entirely sure Biega is an NHL defenceman. Certainly not a top-six defenceman, anyways. The underlying metrics are ghastly and as a defensive defender, these are the metrics which will best showcase his ability. What isn’t up for debate is what a fantastic story this is.

On another level, it raises questions about just how much investment a player of this ilk is worth. Or rather, how much patience they should be granted. Likely, Biega is an exceptional case and this shouldn’t be an earth-shattering development in the way that general managers make their decisions. It’s certainly food for thought, though.