Why a hot market for Rangers’ Cam Talbot could result in the Canucks trading Eddie Lack
8 years ago
Photo Credit: Marc DesRosiers/USA TODAY Sports
The Vancouver Canucks discussed their goaltending situation at pro-meetings last week, and it would seem that they’ve decided to keep Ryan Miller and deal one of their two less experienced netminders Jacob Markstrom or Eddie Lack.
“Markstrom is ready to be an NHL goalie now,” Benning said in a radio appearance on TSN 1040 on Wednesday, via Ben Kuzma of the Vancouver Province. “I want to keep Ryan and we’ll decide on either Lack or Markstrom.”
You’ll notice a key formulation from that quote is that “we’ll decide” is in the present tense, as if a decision hasn’t been made yet. It makes sense: why would you decide to trade one goaltender instead of the other if you haven’t explored specifically what the market will look like? When you’re looking to decide between which of two assets to liquidate, it’s tough to do a cost-benefit analysis without knowing the precise market value of what you’re holding.
So we know, or at least strongly suspect, that at the moment the Canucks haven’t decided which one of Lack or Markstrom to deal. We tend to believe that the club would rather keep Lack all things being equal, but of course, all things aren’t equal.
Lack is an unrestricted free agent following this upcoming season, and if you’re keeping him, you’re likely keeping with an extension that could cost $4 million per year or so. That leaves the Canucks in a situation where they’re carrying a tonne money in goal between Miller and Lack for the 2016-17 season. Markstrom is cost controlled, meanwhile, for another few years.
So Markstrom has the salary cap structure angle working in his favour, whereas Lack has the ‘is clearly a dependable NHL goaltender and maybe could have NHL starter upside’ angle working in his. What it may come down to is market price, and apparently one goaltender generating a tonne of interest is Cam Talbot.
Here’s what Darren Dreger of TSN said of the trade market for goaltenders during an appearance on TSN 690. The transcript comes to use courtesy the all-hearing ears of Mr. Chris Nichols and todaysslapshot.com:
It’s a tough market. It really is. You know who the teams are who are somewhat desperate, frankly, for goaltending. To me, I see two at the top of the list and that’s Edmonton and Buffalo. I know Peter Chiarelli is working pretty hard to nail down a goalie and he’s got Cam Talbot of the New York Rangers in his crosshairs. Robin Lehner, to some degree, out of Ottawa. Maybe John Gibson from the Anaheim Ducks. Eddie Lack is definitely in play and the list gets a lot longer than that.Now, we’re not talking about game-stealers, but Edmonton and Buffalo are in a different scenario here. Those are teams that can afford a relatively young goalie. But Cam Talbot, what is he – 26, 27 years of age. That’s usually the time where a goalie shows his development and where he’s at. Do they get much better past 27? Yeah, potentially. But you’ve got a real strong indication of where they’re headed by that time, and that’s why Talbot is so highly-regarded.But beyond that, I don’t hear any bigger names from a goaltending perspective. But even those players – the New York Rangers, based on the interest they’re getting in Cam Talbot, they’re just giggling in the background. They know he’s a good goalie. They know that. But they’re going to hit a home run on rate of return.So in terms of the market, that’s about where it’s at for the goalies.
The key part of Dreger’s spiel here is where he discusses why a player like Talbot makes more sense for teams like Edmonton and Buffalo. The argument is that Talbot isn’t much of a question mark. He’s a young veteran and you sort of know what you’re getting.
That pretty much applies to Lack too, no? Lack is a bit younger than Talbot, but he has more NHL experience. Talbot’s NHL performance is better as he’s managed a save percentage north of .930 in under 60 games of work while facing fewer than 1600 total shots. Lack has played more though and in tougher circumstances between a far worse defensive team. In 82 games the Swedish netminder has managed a .917 save percentage.
Talbot’s numbers at the NHL level are superior, but that stellar performance has been done over a small sample of games played and shots faced. So the body of work we’re left to evaluate is smaller than Lack’s. In other words we probably know a bit more about Lack’s true talent level than we know of Talbot’s.
It’s also worth pointing out that Lack was elite in over 110 games in the American League. His .923 AHL save percentage compares favourably to Talbot’s .914, which the Rangers backup posted over a similar sample of work.
Honestly if I’m looking at Talbot and Lack, I think Lack is at worst a close comparable, and really, I think there’s an argument to be made that he could be the better goaltender.
If Dreger is right and the Rangers are going to be able to hit a home run with Talbot, largely because he’s seen as a safe bet, then you’d expect the same rough logic to apply to Lack.
If the market for Lack is active, and the Canucks are able to recoup a decent asset for the personable 27-year-old puck stopper, it might tilt the arithmetic in favour of retaining Markstrom.
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