Waiver priority and Players on the wire
6 years ago
The waiver wire has been active over the last couple days as teams look to get their rosters down to 23 before Tuesday’s deadline. There have been some intriguing players, which I will cover down below, that have fans wondering if the Canucks should place any claims.
I had covered the Waiver Priority last year here, but to save reading through the whole thing again, here is a quick breakdown with the article from the CBA and a quick summary:
To summarize what is said there, in the event that multiple clubs place a claim, the Waiver priority is as follows:
- Lowest winning percentage of points at the time of the claim during the regular season.
- If a claim is placed before November 1st, the previous season’s regular season standings are used.
- In the event that the clubs have the same winning percentage of points at the time of claim, the team with the lowest winning percentage would receive the player (excluding games won in shootout).
- If still tied, then fewest number of points against each other.
- If still tied, then the team with the lowest differential between goals for and goals against will receive the player.
That means that the Canucks will remain second on the waiver priority list from now until November 1st. From what I can gather, Vegas will be 3rd on the list.
Trevor Carrick
Now, the players in question are two defencemen. One cleared waivers today and the other was placed on waivers earlier this morning. The first being Carolina Hurricanes defenceman Trevor Carrick.
Carrick had two very seasons in the AHL in 2014-15 and 2015-16. Unfortunately, he had a dip in production this past year. He was expected to push for a spot out of camp but clearly didn’t. He was placed on waivers yesterday and will now be assigned to the AHL. This happened because he was beaten by some top prospects like Jake Bean and Hayden Fleury, both of whom were recent first round picks for the Canes.
He averaged 2.16 shots per game last season and posted an abysmal 3.25% shooting percentage. Prior to that, Carrick averaged 2.23 SH/GP in 2015-16 and 1.78 SH/GP in 2014-15. The difference was that he wasn’t being used on the PP as much this year and thus his production dipped from 16 PPA in 2015-16 to 4 PPA in 2016-17.
Despite the dip in scoring, Carrick still has a decent pGPS percentage with 25.9% of comparable players going onto becoming NHL regulars. It’s a whole mess of names, but there are some intriguing options in there.
Looking at the career arc of Carrick, we see that he was around 10% for his draft year, which is a decent percentage for the 4th round pick that was used to select him. He then quickly ascended to 49.5% of comparable players becoming NHL regulars during the 2015-16 season.
Carrick isn’t a game breaker but was an interesting player on the waiver wire, that could’ve been a worthwhile pickup for any team. There are some defensive flaws to his game that have to be taken into consideration, and is likely why he was passed over. Just because Carrick is starting the year in the AHL, doesn’t mean he will end the year there. For the Canucks though, he isn’t someone that would make sense from a number’s perspective.
For the Canucks though, he isn’t someone that would make sense from a numbers perspective as they would’ve been required to keep him in the NHL or place him on waivers again to assign him to Utica.
Ville Pokka
Ville Pokka was placed on waivers by the Chicago Blackhawks on Friday and is someone the Canucks should be interested in. From all reports, Pokka was someone that was discussed as a possible acquistion for the Canucks at the 2016 trade deadline.
Pokka was originally drafted by the New York Islanders, and was then moved to the Blackhawks for Nick Leddy. The young Finn had a good AHL career and was poised to secure a spot with the Blackhawks this year.
Image: HockeyDB
Pokka is a heady player who moves the puck well while playing a good 200-foot game. He has always just been on the cusp of cracking the NHL.
He led the IceHogs in defenceman scoring while averaging 2.42 shots per game. His primary assists, primary point, points per game, shots per game and estimated time on ice were all at a first pairing rate in the AHL last year.
Same theme for Pokka as we saw with Carrick, about 1/4 players went onto becoming NHL regulars. But Pokka was higher in PPG and with comparables like Radko Gudas and Francois Beauchemin being his closest successful comparables.
The dip in his year over year pGPS is clear – as it fell with his production. But the previous years show extremely high success rates and very noticeable expected points per 82 games of 30+ points per year when in the AHL and 40+ points per year in his Liiga years. It’s clear why Pokka has been a fairly highly rated prospect since he was drafted.
A quick search on Twitter shows that many fan bases think that Pokka is worth the gamble, and I would tend to agree. For the Canucks, it’s a numbers game again. They are already pushing the top of the 23 man roster limit and adding Pokka would mean that two of Alex Biega, Andrey Pedan, and Patrick Wiercioch would have to hit the waiver wire to make room.
The Canucks currently have 47 contracts on the books for the 2017-18 season, so there is some space under the 50 contract limit. But as mentioned above, they are going to be right up against the 23 man roster limit.
Obviously, Carrick wasn’t good enough to make the move, but maybe adding Pokka makes sense enough to make that extra transaction and give themselves more organizational depth. Obviously, both players had a dip in the last season, but that should be compared with the rest of their track record. Both of which have fairly strong resumes to their name.
A lot of prospects just can’t quite make that next step, and that may be the case with Pokka and Carrick. But it’s still a thought process to explore with every player that becomes available. Can a player improve the current group now and in the future? Does the cost to add him, through other moves, make it worthwhile?
Either way, it’s good to know that until October 31st, the Canucks will have 2nd highest priority on any player that finds through way onto the waiver wire.
