**If you want to add a player or two from the decent to the dominant player, I’m sure you can, but it won’t affect the amount of actual NHL players each draft year provided.***

 

Of course this isn’t a perfect system, because you will have guys who played 800 games and didn’t produce many points, and might have averaged only 13 minutes a night, lumped in with guys who played 1000 games and scored a fair amount of points. I’m sure we could try to come up with a formula to rank the importance of certain players by using salary, ice-time, points, special teams play and quality of competition, but unless you are a magician I doubt you’ll find a formula that we’ll all agree with.

 

This is just a guideline, and after seeing the results it seems clear that draft picks, outside of the first round, are over-valued in my opinion. The great news is even after reading this we will all still debate that if Mike Fisher is worth a first and more then Dustin Penner must be worth a first and at least a second.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1^st ROUND (27 picks)
5…   Busts
3…   Short Lived
18… Decent players
1…  Dominant player (Vincent Lecavalier)
 

22… Busts
3…   Short Lived 
6…   Decent players
  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

During this ten year span there was 2703 picks, — I don’t say players because Jarret Stoll, Matt Lombardi and Lance Ward were drafted twice, and I’m sure there is more, but I didn’t catch all of them. I only counted Stoll and Lombardi once in the final tally of decent players. Ward was a short-lived player — so I’m going to say there was 2700 for argument sake.

***Feel free to let me know which other players were drafted twice, and I can re-adjust the stats, although, unless there are many, the percentages won’t change that much, if any.***

In total, there was 2700 players drafted and only 439 of them (16.2%) turned into NHL players.

Thirty six of them are dominant players, which equates to only 1.3% of the drafted players.
403 of them became decent NHLers, which amounts to 14.9% of the draft picks.

Here is a breakdown of the each round during this ten-year span.

25 became dominant players.   (8.8%)
148 turned into decent players. (51.7%)
113 were short lived or busts    (39.5%)

4 became dominant players.  (1.2%)
70 turned into decent players. (21.5%)
252 were short lived or busts. (77.3%)

2 became dominant players.   (0.6%)
47 turned into decent NHLers. (15.2)
259 were short lived or busts.  (84.2)

27 became decent players.      (8.6%)
288 were short lived or busts.  (91.4%)

1 became a dominant player.   (0.03%)
22 turned into decent players.  (6.8%)
302 were short lived or busts.  (92.9%)

1 became a dominant player.   (0.03%)
26 turned into decent players.  (8.8%)
268 were short lived or busts.  (90.9%) 

2 became a dominant player.   (0.06%)
28 turned into decent players.  (9.1%)
268 were short lived or busts.  (90.3%) 

1 became a dominant player.   (0.04%)
19 turned into decent players.  (7.1%)
247 were short lived or busts.  (92.5%) 

16 turned into decent players.  (5.9%)
255 were short lived or busts.  (94.1%)  

It seems pretty clear that after the first round (60.5%) your chances of finding a decent NHL player become increasing lower. A second round pick will give you a 23.7% chance, you’ll have a 15.8% in the 3rd round, only 8.6% in the fourth, 7.1% in the fifth, a little boost up to 9.1% in the sixth and 9.7% in the 7th round.

None of these numbers are shocking, but when people suggest that getting a 2nd rounder for "fill in the blank" is a good trade, keep in mind that you essentially have a one in four chance of turning that pick into a player. I understand that when a team is trading away an UFA that getting something is better than nothing, but unless that something actually pans out, the draft pick, in many cases, turns out to be a whole lot of nothing.

***For those who suggest I should have used players drafted in the first 30 picks in 1996-1999 to ensure it was an even 30 players for each first round, I get your point. However, the 2nd to 7th rounds in many years have a different amount based on compensatory picks so you can’t use a set 30 picks for each round.***

If you are curious how the Canadian teams matched up v. one another during this ten year span here is a quick look at them.

Ottawa had elven first rounder out of their 92 picks, and three were in the top-ten. Their best pick is between Marian Hossa, 12th overall in 1997 or Jason Spezza, 2nd overall in 2001. They have done very well with their first round picks: Hossa, Spezza, Chris Phillips (1st), Martin Havlat (26th), Anton Volchenkov (21st), Tim Gleason (23rd), Patrick Eaves (29th) and Andrej Meszaros (23rd). They’ve produced 18 decent players and two dominant players out of their 92 picks for a solid 21.7% success rate.

Vancouver had 88 picks, ten in the first round with three in the top ten, and produced three dominant players along with eight decent ones. Their best picks were the Sedin twins 2nd and 3rd in 1999, but Ryan Kesler, 23rd overall, in 2003 was a quality pick as well. Their overall success rate is 12.5%, but with three dominant players they would grade out fairly well.

Montreal had 20 of their 94 picks turn into decent players. Andrei Markov, 6th round 1998, would most likely be their best pick. They’ve had three top-ten picks, Carey Price (5th, 2005), Andrei Kostitsyn (10th, 2003) and Mike Komisarek (7th, 2001) and eleven overall. They never hit a grand slam with any of their picks, but they sit with a respectful 21.2% success rate of turning picks into players.

Calgary called out 98 names, ten of them in the first round and three in the top ten. Their highest pick was 6th, twice, and they blew it both times on Rico Fata and Daniel Tkaczuk in 1998 and 1997 respectively. Their best pick was Dion Phaneuf, 9th overall, in 2003. They’ve seen 13 of their picks (13.2% success) become decent NHLers, but none have been very productive offensively. Derek Morris has the most points of any of their picks during this span with 382 in 927 games.

During this span the Leafs didn’t seem to believe in holding onto first round picks. Out of their 92 picks, only six came in the first round, 10th, 17th, 21st and 24th three times. They did okay with Nik Antropov (10th, 1998), Brad Boyes (24th, 2000) and Alex Steen (24th, 2002), but they have since traded all three of them away along with their other first rounders, Carlo Colaiacovo and Tukka Rask. Their other first rounder, Luca Cereda (24th, 1999), never played a game in the NHL. So essentially the Leafs don’t have one first rounder from this ten-year span still in the organization. Out of their 12 picks (13.0% success rate) who became regulars in the NHL, Kaberle was clearly their best selection.

Edmonton has produced 12 decent players out of 105 picks. They had twelve first round picks, the highest being sixth where they took Boyd Devereaux. Their best pick was Ales Hemsky, 13th overall, in 2001 and they had an 11.4% success rate in this time frame. Ask any Oiler fan and they will tell you their drafting was a big reason why, outside of the surprise Cup run in 2006, they were a bubble playoff team during this decade.