Trade Market: Slightly-Used Former 3rd Overall Pick Edition

In the grand scheme of his brief career with the Vancouver Canucks, Erik Gudbranson is having a pretty good 2018/19 season. He’s limited his defensive miscues, is bringing consistent physicality, and has become the NHL’s undisputed king of uppercuts. Unfortunately, all that glitters is not Gud.

As CanucksArmy’s own Jackson McDonald pointed out last week, Erik Gudbranson has had the league’s worst Goals For Percentage in the entire NHL during his time with the Canucks—meaning his opponents score at nearly double the rate of his teammates when he’s on the ice. He hasn’t improved at all in that regard this season, and in fact he’s already been on the ice for more goals against through 42 games this year than he was across 52 games in 2017/18.

As such, it’s understandable why some fans are already warming up the car to drive Gudbranson to the airport. The fact of the matter is that the Canucks are going to have to move a defender or two to make space on their roster for upcoming prospects eventually. The organization seems to be leaning toward keeping both Alex Edler and Chris Tanev in the fold, which means that Gudbranson—along with expiring UFA Michael Del Zotto—is the most likely to move.

What makes a potential Gudbranson trade even more enticing are consistent reports of his desirability around the league—in spite of what the fancy stats would have you believe. The rumors of Dale Tallon desperately wanting Gudbranson to return to Florida continue to make the rounds, but the general consensus among those in the know seems to be that multiple NHL GMs would welcome Gudbranson’s services on their team—and that brings us to the latest edition of Trade Market: Slightly-Used Former 3^rd Overall Pick.

To qualify for this edition of the Trade Market, a team has to lack depth in the bottom-four of the defense—preferably on the right side. It would help if the team’s top-two D were strong, as Gudbranson definitely works best in limited minutes. Gudbranson’s contract continues for two seasons beyond this one, so a potential trading partner need not be a Stanley Cup contender at this very moment, but they should at the least be heading in that direction.

One can only have so many Erik Gudbransons in the lineup at a time, so any rosters that already contain multiple “meat and potatoes”-type defenders should be avoided. Cap space isn’t a dire concern at this point in the season, but Gudbranson’s $4 million cap hit does preclude any teams in an Edmonton Oilers-esque, “literally no cap space at all” situation from acquiring him.

 

The Sabres are well on their way to contention, but they might not be ready to make noise in the playoffs quite yet—which makes them a perfect landing spot for a player with term like Gudbranson. Aside from Rasmus Ristolainen, the Sabres are weak on the right side, aside from some spurts of solid play by the very Gudbranson-esque Zach Bogosian that almost certainly won’t be sustained.

The only mark against Buffalo in this Trade Market is that they’ve already got at least one Gudbranson-type in the aforementioned Bogosian, and Marco Scandella can probably be placed in the same category. If the Sabres trade for Gudbranson, they’ll probably also ditch one of those defenders.

 

The Avs are a team with a dynamic offense who are being held back in the standings by a lack of depth and an overall lack of luster on the defensive end of things. Colorado already has a rather physical backend, but the established heavy hitters like Erik Johnson, Nikita Zadorov, and Ian Cole are of the more mobile variety—which makes Gudbranson’s talents supplementary to their own, instead of redundant.

The Avalanche are currently dressing rookie Ryan Graves on the right side, and there aren’t any obvious callups waiting in the wings, so there’s definitely a spot for Gudbranson to potentially fill.

 

Between the frequency of trades between the two franchises and Dale Tallon’s reported interest in reacquiring Erik Gudbranson, the Panthers are the most obvious candidate for a deal. The Florida blueline is noticeably lacking in physicality—illegal wrestling moves aside—and Gudbranson could easily push a player like Mackenzie Weegar out of the lineup.

There’s no question of whether or not he’d fit in with their team culture, as he’s reportedly the one most responsible for establishing it. A Gudbranson trade to Florida makes a lot of sense.

 

Despite the loss of John Tavares, the Islanders are holding down a wildcard spot in the standings, and the presence of Mathew Barzal likely means that they’ll continue to flirt with contention for the foreseeable future.

The New York blueline is definitely one that gets the job done via committee, and Gudbranson could possibly prove to be a moderately valuable addition to that committee. And, hey, they did pick up Luca Sbisa this season, so there’s precedence for this sort of move.

 

The saga of the Leafs blueline woes are well-documented and over-discussed, but anyone can see that their right side needs some significant work. The forward-thinking GM Kyle Dubas doesn’t seem like the type to pursue an “old school” talent like Gudbranson, but coach Mike Babcock wields a lot of influence in Toronto—and he’s got a long history of employing guys like Roman Polak at the bottom end of his defense corps.

While the internet would surely collapse under the weight of the thinkpieces that would result from a Gudbranson-to-Toronto deal, that’s a sacrifice the Canucks have to be willing to make.

 

This is a tough question to answer. Last time he was traded, Gudbranson returned Jared McCann and a second round pick. He’s still well within his prime at 27 years old, and his level of play in Vancouver hasn’t been drastically different from what it was in Florida—so it’s tempting to say that his value remains somewhere within that ballpark. However, that trade looks like an overpayment with the benefit of hindsight, and so the real answer is probably far less substantial.

In reality, the Canucks can probably expect to receive offers of one or two pieces of medium value—think late second or third round draft picks and prospects of a “B” quality or worse. GM Jim Benning—the same individual who traded for Gudbranson in the first place—can count on incurring an overall loss when it comes to the management of Gudbranson as an asset, but worrying about that at this point is a sunk cost fallacy. A late second and a longshot project  represents a more-than-adequate return for Gudbranson, and any such offer should be jumped on.