Through the first three games of the season, the Canucks have been on the wrong end of lopsided shot totals twice, before managing to stay in the black against Winnipeg on Thursday. It’s no surprise then that most of their players have shot shares that are well below 50%. In fact, there are only four players that are above water in that regard, and only three players once we adjust for score effects. Naturally, all three of them have been playing on the same line.

As it turns out, rumours of the Sedins’ demise have been greatly exaggerated. The 37-year old twins that many assume are entering their final NHL season, along with their linemate and fellow old person Thomas Vanek, have the best underlying metrics on the team, and it’s not even close.

As a trio, they controlled 67% of shot attempts after score adjustment (which is impressive since the Canucks spent a lot of the first two games leading), 72% of unblocked shots, and a whopping 80% of shots on goal. The only area in which their on-ice numbers are poor is in terms of goals. They scored twice and been scored on twice at 5-on-5, but once adjustments are introduced, their goals-for percentage dips to 46%.

Now, we know that shots are nice, but goals are really what counts, so should we been impressed with their shot numbers if they are even, or sub-par, in goals?

Well yes, we should be, and that has everything to do with luck.

Consider that I mentioned that the Sedin line has controlled 80% of shots on net, and that we’re only three games in. The Sedins and Vanek have only been on the ice together for four shots against, with two of those slipping past Jacob Markstrom. That is an on-ice save percentage of .500, which is frankly ridiculous. Along with their very reasonable on-ice shooting percentage of 11.1%, the Sedins and Vanek have a PDO of .611. We can be pretty certain that Canuck goalies aren’t going to continue saving just half the shots they face when the Sedin line is on the ice.

Besides, that’s the benefit of expected goals. Expected goals take into account shot location (and a series of more complex data points) to project how many should have been scored assuming normal shooting percentages (and in turn, save percentages) given that location.

When the Sedins and Vanek have been on the ice, the Canucks have an expected goals share of 72% – in line with their other shots metrics.

Their relative metrics are even more eye-popping, which makes sense considering that the Canucks as a team have shot metrics in the 40’s, with their on-to-off-ice Corsi percentage difference at +27%, and their Shot of Goal percentage difference at +48%. The team is without a doubt better with them on the ice.

Now that we’ve established that their on-ice metrics are fantastically strong, we can explore some of the reasoning behind it. Obviously, the Sedins are fantastic players, and are capable of dominate for small stretches even in their twilight years, especially when paired with the right players. Consider that they held a Corsi-for percentage of 53% while playing with Loui Eriksson last season.

This isn’t all on the players though. So far this season, new Canucks head coach Travis Green has clearly taken great pains to make sure the Sedins are in optimal positions to succeed. Their ice time comes to mind first and foremost. In each of the first three games, the Sedins and Vanek have played less than 10 minutes at 5-on-5.

Over the last few years, popular opinion has been that the Sedins have been playing far too much. It’s been theorized that this has contributed to the injuries that they suffered (mostly in 2013-14 and 2015-16), and certainly wore them down over the course of the season. In each of the past two seasons, their rate production dipped noticeably over the course of the season (though the coach didn’t seem to catch on, and thus changed nothing).

So it makes sense that the Sedins are playing less. Playing as little as they have so far (roughly third line minutes) is perhaps a bigger drop off than any us expected, but it’s hard to argue with the results so far. The Sedin has been on the ice for two 5-on-5 goals for, with Henrik assisting on both of the them (goals by Vanek and Chris Tanev), which, combined with his conservative ice time totals, has given him the best point rate on the team: 4.07 points per 60 minutes.

If the Sedins can be kept fresh throughout the season, then perhaps they’ll be able to continue capitalizing on opportunities when they present themselves. That is even more likely to come to fruition if Green continues to deploy their shift starts as he has to this point.

No other forwards have taken more offensive zone faceoffs than the Sedins and Vanek so far this young season. Green has always been a strategic coach; even in the AHL, he was more than willing to replace players that had been on for only a handful of seconds depending on which end of the rink a faceoff was in.

This method of zone deployment is reminiscent of how former coach Alain Vigneault used to use the twins in their heyday. Back in their prime, Vigneault would provide them with zone start ratios that crept into the 60’s or even 70’s. These ratios were routinely among the highest in the entire league, and the Sedins used them to great benefit.

We have to be careful though, because the effect of zone starts can easily be overstated. About a year, I published a couple of articles under the heading Beware of What Zone Starts Are Telling You, in which I discussed both how coaches are more limited in influencing zone starts that people often assume, as well as how their effect on possession stats tends to be much less than people think.

With a coach as clearly intent on manipulating deployment as Green is, we can be very sure that their high offensive/defensive ratio is purposeful and not an anomaly. However, their offensive zone starts are somewhat higher than their offensive zone shift starts, which is indicative of taking multiple in-shift faceoffs in the offensive zone. This is also a good sign, as it means they forced play to end there.

As for the other warning, I think this one is still in effect: while the steady diet of offensive zone starts are certainly benefiting the Sedin line, it wouldn’t be fair to give deployment all the credit.

In fact, remember those adjusted stats I referenced at the top of the article, the ones that the Sedins are dominating in? Those are already adjusted for zone starts. Let that sink in.

What we have here is one of the great benefits to using both the eye test and underlying stats (please note that we’re emphasizing collaboration and not one or the other). The apparent lethargy of the 37-year olds in conjunction with the general lackadaisical attitude that Thomas Vanek has become known for has left a rather unappealing impression on the eyes. Many fans and media have taken notice of the fact that the whole Sedin line doesn’t look like it’s doing much. Some are still advocating for Vanek to be a healthy scratch.

Following the Ottawa game, Travis Green was asked about the appearance of not having an effect on the game, followed by a sudden goal.

“For 34 minutes, I didn’t think [Vanek] did much, then he scored the goal,” Province reporter Ben Kuzma mentioned. “Can you live with that?”

The question was posed specifically in regards to Vanek, but really it could apply to the whole line. Can you have a line that doesn’t look like it’s doing anything, as long as it pops in goals now and again?

The numbers should be able to answer this question. When you take a peek at them and find that 80% of shots on goal are coming off Canuck sticks when the Sedin line is on the ice, that’s a level of dominance that any coach should be more than satisfied with. Sometimes players can look like they’re doing a lot when they aren’t really getting anything accomplished. Other times, players looking like they’re struggling, but all the results are in their favour.

The latter option should always be the preferable one, even if it’s visually unappealing.

While the Canucks are struggling in several other areas (particularly on their supposed “shutdown” line), the Sedin line is one that shouldn’t be touched, seeing as virtually everything has gone right for them so far (aside from a little luck). The Canucks coaching staff seems to agree: it was the only line that wasn’t changed between the second and third game, as Brock Boeser entered the lineup and things were shaken up. So here’s hoping that Green can stomach the lack of razzle dazzle, and keep sending this trio out together (and in the same highly beneficial shift starts) as long as they keep achieving positive results. So far, it’s working wonderfully.