Scouting the Dub – Prince George vs Vancouver
7 years ago
With the NHL past the mid season mark and many teams having just held their amateur scouting meetings, the 2017 NHL Entry Draft is starting to become a little more of a focus.
On Monday, the Prince George Cougars visited the Langley Events Centre for a date with the Vancouver Giants. There was quite a few scouts in attendance as it was the only Monday night game on the Calendar, and because Prince George boasts a newly highly acquired first round talent.
Nikita Popugayev (LW – Prince George #29)
Nikita Popugayev was the player that people had their eyes on. Recently acquired from the Moose Jaw Warriors by the Cougars, Popugayev is 6’6′ and over 200 lbs already.
He is a fascinating prospect because he is being ranked all over the place by the usual scouting services, with some having him as high as 7th overall and others having him in the 2nd round. He is currently ranked 18th amongst North American Skaters by NHL C.S.S.
On this particular night, you could see flashes of why he was so highly rated by some, and then later, you could see why there are some concerns.
Let’s start with the positive side, Popugayev has excellent vision, silky hands and can needle the thread with his passes. Multiple times on the powerplay, Jansen Harkins (Winnipeg Jets prospect) and Popugayev were just playing catch back and forth hoping to open a seam.
On the Cougars only goal, he flipped the puck out to his team-mate, which created an odd man rush that eventually led to the goal. It wasn’t a great pass per say, but it created separation between the Giants forwards and defence.
When he was engaged in a one-on-one battle, he would be able to deke his way out of trouble, unless the opposing player went at him physically, then Popugayev had issues.
There are some concerns about his work ethic and compete – which was apparent on the plays where he was engaged physically. He just didn’t seem to have that push back.
For myself, I have some concerns about his two step quickness and acceleration. His top speed isn’t bad, but it takes him a few strides to get going, and he can’t generate that speed after a quick stop or change in direction. That concern was a bit on display on the Giants lone goal, he just gets left in the dust by Dawson Holt, and don’t push hard through the neutral zone.
Popugayev didn’t see much ice-time after that goal.
He did score a nice goal in the shoot-out though, showing off those aforementioned nice hands:
pGPS looks extremely favourable on Popugayev, with 100% of his matches becoming NHL regulars, with N=2. Eric Fehr wasn’t a game breaker but was/is a serviceable NHL players.
With that being said, this is where all facets of scouting needs to be used in analysis. The eye-test brings up the aforementioned concerns about his skating, battle level and ‘pushing the pace’. Also as perviously mentioned, Popugayev was traded from the Moose Jaw Warriors to the Cougars at the deadline during his draft season. That definitely raises a red flag, as high end players are rarely moved during their draft season as they almost assuredly have one, if not two years, back in their league before turning pro.
A little investigation could provide some more insight into why, but a multitude of reasons would be worth nothing – such as not getting along with his teammates, he may go back to Russia, or other personnel concerns.
Not something to make you stay away from Popugayev completely, but worth speaking with people around the WHL.
At this moment, you can understand why Popugayev would see his draft stock falling a bit. But there will be a team who will be attracted to his potential as a big, high end, winger. It just takes one team.
Josh Curtis (RW – Prince George #10)
Another draft eligible player for the Cougars that played on Monday night was anger Josh Curtis.
Playing the majority of the game on the fourth line, Curtis didn’t really make an impact throughout the entire game, and his point totals for the season (21 points in 45 games) leave something to be desired.
When we use pGPS to look at Curtis, as we can see, the success rate is very low with 3.9% of his comparable players going onto becoming NHL players.
He was not ranked in the latest CSS rankings, and he probably gets passed over in the upcoming draft.
James Malm (C – Vancouver #14)
Another player that is currently unranked by CSS is centre James Malm for the Vancouver Giants, which is surprising based on his totals so far this season.
It’s likely attributed to his smaller stature as he measures in at 5’9″ and 179 lbs. But there might be something here, if he can commit himself. He is a very smart player who finds seams and effectively uses his line mates. His point totals don’t jump off the page, but when you watch him, you can tell that if he was playing for another team who had a better record and more of a supporting cast, that he would likely have more points.
With Tyler Benson and Ty Ronning out on Friday night, Malm lacked his two most consistent line mates.
When we use the pGPS light on Malm – it rates him extremely well with 21.6% of his 51 matches going onto becoming NHL regulars. That is an extremely favourable rating for any player outside of the first round. I’ve spoken about him in a previous edition, and he continues to be a player that I keep an eye on.
This isn’t to say that teams should be using high picks on him, but if he is still available in the sixth or seventh round of the 2017 NHL entry draft, he might be worth the flyer for a team. You can’t teach hockey sense and the ability to process the game, but you can help a player with their commitment to training and diet.
Teams regularly use their very late round picks on players who are fridges, why not apply that pick to a player who has a skill level that could very translate to the professional level. The data confirms what the eye-test sees. Malm seems to be worth a flyer for any team.
Other 2017 Draft Eligibles:
- Owen Hardy (#15 – VAN) – -1
- Dawson Holt (#19 – VAN) – One goal
- Brendan Semchuk (#27 – VAN) – +1
Notes:
- Canucks prospect Tate Olson had a decent game – he made quite a few good and heady plays with the puck. However there was some poor decisions and mis-reads on his part as well. He is currently occupying the second pairing spot, as well as PP and PK time.
- Buffalo Sabres prospect Brendan Guhle was far and away the best player on the ice. Regularly carrying the puck into the Giants zone without an opposition. A few end to end rushs, a nice play on the P.G. goal, and rarely beat in the defensive zone.
- Alex Kannok-Leipert (#43 for Vancouver) is someone to keep an eye on for the 2018 NHL Entry draft. He was extremely poised and confident with the puck. Playing in only his 6th WHL game, he was taking a regular shift, while being the go to man on the PP.
- There was a Canucks scout in attendance for this game.
