Saturday’s Lottery Free Fall Shouldn’t Change Your Convictions About “Tanking”

The odds were always against the Vancouver Canucks picking in the top three of the 2017 NHL Entry Draft. And it has nothing to do with a league wide conspiracy to keep the Canucks in the league’s basement in perpetuity.

It’s really quite simple, and the math behind it was available before the ping pong balls even entered the spinning cage. The Canucks had a 65.8% chance of picking fourth or fifth and conversely a 34.2% chance of finishing on the podium.

So when Bill Daly flashed the card that revealed the New Jersey Devils as the winners of the final draft lottery, I shrugged, because really, what else was there to do?

Meanwhile, the city cried foul. Reactions ranged from “the system is flawed!” to “this is why you don’t tank!”. Make no mistake; people weren’t shy about telling me what an idiot I was for being an active member of #TeamTank. In fact, I’m still hearing about it.

The fact of the matter is, Saturday’s results shouldn’t have any impact on how you view the strategy of tanking. At no point has anyone suggested finishing 29th overall would guarantee the Canucks a top-three pick.

It was about guaranteeing the Canucks couldn’t fall any further than fifth in the event that they would lose three consecutive lotteries like they did on Saturday.

If the Canucks finish the season with 70 points instead of 69, they would be picking seventh rather fifth.

It’s also worth noting that, yes, finishing 29th bolstered the Canucks odds at a top three pick significantly. Unless you’re of the belief that the function of the lottery itself is preordained and the chief aim of down on their luck franchises is to finish in the exact location that aligns best with that setting, then the Canucks submarining the end of their season was absolutely worth it.

Suggesting the Canucks would have been better off had they finished 27th overall with 70 points as the Devils did is tantamount to saying they would be better off if the NHL picked their numbers.

Really, though, what was the alternative for the Canucks? They tried to compete this season. Oh, how they tried. A rebuilding team building towards the future doesn’t trade what amounts to three young assets for Erik Gudbranson, who is now one year removed from unrestricted free agency. Nor does a rebuilding team sign Loui Eriksson to a six-year deal.

It wasn’t until the March 1st trade deadline that Canucks general manager Jim Benning finally waived the white flag, dealing Jannik Hansen and Alexandre Burrows for futures.

For three consecutive seasons, the Canucks have done everything in their power to try and keep their ship afloat and remain in the playoff chase. And in spite of that, they’ve finished 28th and 29th in consecutive seasons.

The reality for the Canucks and their fans is that there really isn’t a choice but to leave a significant part of the franchise’s fortunes in the hands of a lottery system. Like it or not, this is where the Canucks are as a franchise now and likely will be for another few seasons hereafter.

It’s not unfair to the franchise. Nor is it something the Canucks can avoid. Canucks president of hockey operations Trevor Linden wasn’t wrong when he said “it is what it is”. It’s really that simple.

If there’s any consolation, I tend to think it’s more likely than not that the Canucks have a few more draft lotteries left in them. And if that’s the case, one would have to imagine that at some point they’ll win a draw or two.

Then again, maybe they don’t? The Canucks giving themselves the best possible chance in the draft lottery is about probability, not destiny. It always was.