Predicting Jacob Markstrom’s Next Contract

Photo credit:Sergei Belski - USA TODAY Sports

5 years ago

In terms of contract negotiations, much of the attention surrounding the Vancouver Canucks this offseason will be paid to Brock Boeser and Alex Edler. The team’s likely MVP for the 2018/19 season also becomes eligible for a new contract when Free Agent Frenzy 2019 hits—and it’s probably time to start talking about it.

Jacob Markstrom’s contract doesn’t expire until 2020, but July 1 of this year marks the point at which he can begin discussing an extension with the Canucks. Coming off what could be a career-defining season, Markstrom’s camp is no doubt eager to begin negotiations as soon as possible—but GM Jim Benning has a number of things to consider before offering Markstrom a new contract.

Three Key Questions The Canucks Must Answer Before They Re-Sign Jacob Markstrom

Is He A Bona Fide Starting Goaltender?

Markstrom has been the Canucks’ most valuable player in 2018/19, and most would attest that he’s finally proven himself as a bona fide starting goaltender in the NHL. While the 29-year-old also served as the team’s starter last year, it’s fair to say that this is the first time in his career he’s been seen as a true number one netminder.

That being said, goalies are fickle beasts—and there’s a long list of supposed NHL starters whose careers have fizzled with little warning or explanation. The Canucks need to be damn sure that Markstrom is going to maintain his current level of play moving forward if they’re going to pay him like a starting goaltender.

Could Markstrom Still Be Starter When The Team Is Contending?

As it stands now, even the most optimistic of Canuck fans don’t anticipate truly contending for the Stanley Cup again until 2020/21 at the earliest. Markstrom will be 30 when that season begins. There are plenty of top-level goaltenders of that age—and older—around the league, but the trend is definitely skewing toward younger starters.

Of the top ten teams in the standings right now, only the Boston Bruins and Nashville Predators have a starting goaltender over the age of 30. If anything, it qualifies as food for thought before the Canucks commit to Markstrom for another three seasons or more.

Is Demko Still The Heir Apparent?

Of course, there’s also the question of Thatcher Demko. The 23-year-old remains one of the top goaltending prospects in the world—and although his 2018/19 numbers at the NHL level aren’t exceptional, there’s plenty of reason to believe they’ll improve.

If the Canucks brass still has faith in Demko to take over the starting role, there has to be a transition plan in place—and that has to be factored in before Markstrom is signed to a new contract. Anything longer than three years would seriously complicate the Demko situation.

What The Canucks Want

The Canucks would love to sign Jacob Markstrom to a two-year extension—though they’d probably settle for three—with a slight salary raise to something with a $4 in front of it. That would mean paying Markstrom like an average—but not elite—starting goaltender.

What Markstrom Wants

Markstrom and his agent will no doubt want him to be paid like the top-flight starting goaltender he’s been in 2018/19—especially if negotiations drag on into next season and he replicates this performance. They’ll be looking for a commitment of more than three years and a salary above $5 million—both of which would be a recognition of the Canucks belief in Markstrom as their starter moving forward.

What The Comparables Say

Looking for contract comparables is always easier when one is dealing with goaltenders—there’s simply a lot less of them to sort through. In order to narrow the field further, we’ll be looking specifically at starting or pseudo-starting goalies that have signed or re-signed NHL deals over the last three seasons.

We’ll be looking at those goaltenders’ stat lines for their most recent complete season at the time of their signing, as well as their overall career numbers. In addition to the usual suspects, take note of the Point Share column—which attempts to estimate how many of a team’s total points a goalie directly contributed with their play, as compiled by Hockey-Reference.com. To add context to these statshots, we’ll start with Jacob Markstrom’s own profile below.

All stats were current as of 4:00PM PST on April 2, 2019.

Jacob Markstrom

UFA in 2020

	Age	Record	Save %	GAA	Point Share
2018/19	29	28-22-9	.913	2.76	11.0
Career	————-	87-101-28	.909	2.81	35.6

Markstrom’s statline might not look all that impressive in a vacuum, but one also has to consider the defence that has been in front of him for the bulk of the season. Anyone who has watched Vancouver play this year can attest to his importance to the team—as evidenced by his impressive point share, ranked seventh in the league.

Jimmy Howard, Detroit Red Wings

Re-signed in 2019 for One Year @ $4 million

	Age	Record	Save %	GAA	Point Share
2018/19	34	22-20-5	.909	3.02	8.7
Career	————-	243-171-68	.914	2.54	87.6

The 34-year-old Howard signed a team-friendly extension with Detroit so he can continue his career one year at a time—and he can quickly be discarded as a comparable for Markstrom.

Mikko Koskinen, Edmonton Oilers

Re-signed in 2019 for Three Years @ $4.5 million

	Age	Record	Save %	GAA	Point Share
2018/19	30	24-20-6	.907	2.90	7.9
Career	————-	26-21-6	.904	3.00	8.0

One would have to think that Koskinen’s contract—as much as it was and still is belittled leaguewide—sets the bare minimum when it comes to Markstrom’s upcoming deal. Markstrom has outperformed Koskinen across every metric, and so the Canucks will have a tough time getting him to sign for any cheaper than this—though concessions have to be made for the “Chiarelli Factor.”

Pekka Rinne, Nashville Predators

Re-signed in 2018 for Two Years @ $5 million

	Age	Record	Save %	GAA	Point Share
2017/18	36	42-13-4	.927	2.31	13.2
Career	————-	338-187-70	.918	2.38	115.1

Rinne’s latest deal with Nashville is so team-friendly that it doesn’t deserve much discussion here. He’s also seven years older than Markstrom, so Rinne isn’t much of a comparable at all.

John Gibson, Anaheim Ducks

Re-signed in 2018 for Eight Years @ $6.4 million

	Age	Record	Save %	GAA	Point Share
2017/18	25	31-18-7	.926	2.43	13.2
Career	————-	118-77-28	.921	2.42	46.1

Despite the fact that Gibson is three years younger than Markstrom, his career accomplishments already dwarf the Canuck netminders. The term Gibson received is definitely a reflection of the age at which he signed his deal—it will carry him through the entirety of his prime—and so the Canucks probably don’t have to worry about Markstrom demanding an eight-year deal of his own.

Marc-Andre Fleury, Vegas Golden Knights

Re-signed in 2018 for Three Years @ $7 million

	Age	Record	Save %	GAA	Point Share
2017/18	33	29-13-4	.927	2.24	9.9
Career	————-	439-248-77	.913	2.55	140.3

Fleury’s contract is rich—especially when his age is considered—but he’s the face of the Vegas franchise and signed the deal after leading them to the 2018 Stanley Cup Finals. As it was with Rinne, Fleury is an older goaltender than Markstrom and a better one—so he doesn’t make for much of a comparable.

Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets

Re-signed in 2018 for Six Years @ $6.17 million

	Age	Record	Save %	GAA	Point Share
2017/18	25	44-11-9	.924	2.36	14.0
Career	————-	116-64-16	.915	2.66	38.2

Throw Hellebuyck into the John Gibson camp of goaltenders who were signed through their entire primes, and were compensated for it with term and salary. Hellebuyck’s numbers with the Jets speak for themselves—and he’s allowed them to become a true Stanley Cup contender. Markstrom will have to accept fewer dollars and years in his own contract.

Carter Hutton, Buffalo Sabres

Signed in 2018 for Three Years @ $2.75 million

	Age	Record	Save %	GAA	Point Share
2017/18	32	17-7-3	.931	2.09	6.2
Career	————-	80-63-22	.913	2.58	28.6

Hutton makes for an interesting comparable when it comes to Markstrom’s next contract. Like Markstrom, Hutton proved himself as a starting goaltender at a fairly late age—and he wasn’t able to get a team to fully commit to him even on the open market. Unlike Markstrom, however, Hutton only had a half-season as a starter behind him when he signed—which means that Markstrom should be in line for a much higher salary, and perhaps a longer term.

Antti Raanta, Arizona Coyotes

Re-signed in 2018 for Three Years @ $4.25 million

	Age	Record	Save %	GAA	Point Share
2017/18	28	21-17-6	.930	2.24	10.4
Career	————-	73-46-15	.920	2.34	26.8

Raanta makes for an excellent comparable to Markstrom. Raanta’s current injury troubles aside, he had one season as a starter and two as a top-flight backup when he signed his contract—less experience than Markstrom, but within the same ballpark. Their similar bodies of work might suggest similar contracts—but it would also be understandable if Markstrom felt he deserved slightly more than Raanta.

Craig Anderson, Ottawa Senators

Re-signed in 2017 for Two Years @ $4.75 million

	Age	Record	Save %	GAA	Point Share
2016/17	36	25-11-4	.926	2.28	9.2
Career	————-	278-233-67	.914	2.81	116.2

The less said about the happenings within the Ottawa organization the better. Anderson is too old to be a comparable for Markstrom anyway.

Carey Price, Montreal Canadiens

Re-signed in 2017 for Eight Years @ $10.5 million

	Age	Record	Save %	GAA	Point Share
2016/17	29	37-20-5	.923	2.23	12.6
Career	————-	320-224-68	.918	2.47	122.9

Price’s contract is truly in a world of its own. There really isn’t any a comparable deal to it elsewhere in the league.

Martin Jones, San Jose Sharks

Re-signed in 2017 for Six Years @ $5.75 million

	Age	Record	Save %	GAA	Point Share
2016/17	27	35-23-6	.912	2.40	9.9
Career	————-	153-97-23	.912	2.47	43.2

Jones is the goaltender that Markstrom’s agent should be pointing at when negotiations with the Canucks begin. Although Jones signed at a younger age than Markstrom will—and thus, Markstrom can’t expect to receive the same term—but he was also compensated with a rather generous salary. That probably had a lot to do with his playoff run in 2016, but aside from that Jones had a similar resumé to Markstrom when he signed.

Ben Bishop, Dallas Stars

Signed in 2017 for Six Years @ $4.92 million

	Age	Record	Save %	GAA	Point Share
2016/17	30	18-15-5	.910	2.54	5.7
Career	————-	200-112-32	.920	2.31	67.4

Bishop’s deal was signed on the open market of unrestricted free agency—which is the only thing keeping it from being a favourable comparable for Markstrom’s camp. In retrospect, the Stars probably shouldn’t have committed six years to a 30-year-old goalie—and the Canucks should avoid making the same mistake.

Scott Darling, Carolina Hurricanes

Signed in 2017 for Four Years @ $4.15 million

	Age	Record	Save %	GAA	Point Share
2016/17	28	18-5-5	.924	2.38	6.2
Career	————-	54-42-18	.908	2.72	18.5

Darling’s deal was signed in the frenzy of unrestricted free agency—and it’s also one of the worst contracts in recent memory. Nobody should want to emulate this one.

Final Prediction

The Canucks are rather fortunate that the list of favourable contract comparables for Jacob Markstrom is so short. Most of the goaltenders who have signed deals of a significant term and salary in recent years have been either far younger or far better than Markstrom. The exceptions to the rule—players like Martin Jones, Ben Bishop, and Scott Darling—may serve as positive comparables, but they’re also almost universally seen as regrettable contracts.

It would seem that GM Jim Benning would be justified to offer Jacob Markstrom a contract of no longer than three years and somewhere in the range of $4-4.5 million—and feel comfortable moving Markstrom at the 2020 Trade Deadline if he ends up demanding more.

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