The Vancouver Canucks will look to bounce back from a disappointing loss versus the Utah Hockey Club when they host the league-leading Winnipeg Jets Tuesday evening.

The Canucks have struggled to a record 14-13-7 on home ice this season, which has them fighting for their playoff lives after winning the Pacific Division with 109 points last season. They are 5-5-0 over the last 10 games, which has allowed Utah and the St. Louis Blues to gain ground in the race for the final Wild Card spot.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Similar to teams such as the Carolina Hurricanes and Toronto Maple Leafs, not too many observers are going to be entirely sold on the Jets as a true Stanley Cup favourite until they see them actually dominate the same way in the postseason. However, the Jets are making a pretty strong case that this season could be different than last, in which they put up 110 points before falling to the Colorado Avalanche in just five games in the opening round of the NHL Playoffs.

The Jets hold an absurd +81 goal differential, which is the best mark in the league by a wide margin. Washington ranks second at +69, while the Dallas Stars rank third at +51.

Connor Hellebuyck is a gigantic favourite (-20000) to become the first goaltender to win consecutive Vezina Trophies since Martin Brodeur in the 2006-07 and 2007-08 seasons. Unfortunately for the Canucks Hellebuyck, served as Eric Comrie’s backup on Sunday, and is expected to get the start as a result. He holds a +36.6 GSAx rating and .927 save percentage in 52 appearances this season.

Oddsmakers have had a hard time accounting for Hellebuyck’s level of dominance over the last two seasons, as the Jets have been consistently undervalued in his starts. Over the last two regular seasons Winnipeg is 75-34 straight up when Hellebuyck starts, and betting it to win each of those games would yield a 17.4% ROI.

While the Jets are entirely capable of winning low-event games with Hellebuyck in goal, they have also been one of the best offensive teams in the league. They rank third having scored 3.47 goals per game this season, and own the league’s best power play which has succeeded on 31.4% of opportunities.

As we typically see from teams in the midst of highly successful seasons, head coach Scott Arniel has rarely had to alter his offensive lines, and has almost never strayed away from his dominant top-line of Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi. They have combined for 98 goals this season, which equals 52.97% of all the goals scored by Vancouver’s entire roster.

GM Kevin Cheveldayoff ultimately had a pretty quiet trade deadline compared to inter-division rivals Colorado and Dallas, bringing in Brandon Tanev and Luke Schenn for modest prices.

While it was a modest deadline, Schenn should provide a pretty significant upgrade over Logan Stanley, who’s play has been arguably the one consistent weakness among the Jets roster. Stanley holds a -4.7 xGoals Above Replacement rating this season per Evolving Hockey, which certainly matches the eye-test.

Neal Pionk is listed as week-to-week with a lower-body injury, and will remain sidelined in this matchup.

The Canucks failed to generate anything substantial offensively in their critical matchup versus Utah on Sunday night, and will now be desperate to bounce-back get things right against the league’s best team. Vancouver generated only six high-danger scoring chances versus Utah, scoring only once where it counts in the form of a power play tally from Quinn Hughes.

Hughes led all Canucks skaters with five shots on target, and held a 55.91% expected goal share in a whopping 29:49 of time-on-ice. He’s recorded three points in three games since returning last Wednesday, and has done all he can to drag his side into the fight.

Aside from Hughes, it’s becoming more difficult to come up with positives to point towards surrounding the Canucks game right now.

Filip Chytil’s absence leaves a huge hole at the critical centre ice position. While Pius Suter is a capable centre, he is ideally suited for a third-line role and is now slotted further up the lineup card. Nils Aman is a highly unconvincing option at 3C, and will skate alongside Dakota Joshua and Jonathan Lekkerimäki in this matchup.

Nils Höglander, Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser will be reunited on the top-line, as head coach Rick Tocchet desperately looks to find more production.

As we get closer to the completion of the regular season, it is becoming more fair to question the offensive tactics of Tocchet’s side, and question his ability to make adjustments. Since December 1st the Canucks have scored just 2.49 goals per game, and while personnel is obviously a concern, few would have predicted this roster could be this bad offensively.

Kevin Lankinen has been confimed as the Canucks starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a .904 save percentage and 2.54 GAA in 43 appearances this season.

The Jets have been among the NHL’s most profitable betting sides over the last two seasons, and have generally not commanded as much market respect as they seem to deserve. They have supported Hellebuyck with solid defensive play, and feature a great balance of elite talents and strong role-players.

This matchup is far more important to the Canucks, and they should offer a much higher level of desperation as a result. Still, the fact that Vancouver should be the more motivated side is not enough for me to believe this game should be priced this evenly.

The Jets have been one of the most productive sides in the league, which provides them an avenue to win games the times that Hellebuyck actually allows more than two goals. Not overthinking things and simply betting Hellebuyck to win his starts has been a tremendous betting strategy the last two seasons, and at -155, we have a reasonable price to stick with that strategy.