As the Vancouver Canucks enter Tuesday’s matchup eight points back of the Minnesota Wild with just four games left to play, it’s now a foregone conclusion that they will come up short of earning a playoff berth this season.

There are still plenty of players on the roster with something to prove in the season’s final five games, which should help the team continue to compete hard as it finishes up a lost campaign.

The Dallas Stars, meanwhile, will be looking to sharpen their game as they head towards what could be a lengthy playoff run. Dallas is 28-8-2 on home ice this season and 7-1-2 in its last 10 matchups.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Victor Olofsson’s late-game-winning goal in Vancouver’s matchup with the Vegas Golden Knights on Sunday likely ended the team’s hopes of earning a playoff berth after an admirable fight to the finish line. The Canucks were outshot 35-21, but the high-danger scoring chances were relatively even as Vegas held a 10-9 edge.

Nils Höglander returned to the lineup on Sunday and played well, finishing with a goal and two shots on goal in 16:20 of time-on-ice. Höglander skated on the top line alongside Pius Suter and Brock Boeser on Sunday, and the unit was effective, playing to a 58.4% expected goal share and +1 goal differential.

While he’s obviously well motivated heading towards free agency this summer, if this is the end of Boeser’s tenure as a Canuck, he is certainly going out in style, as he has recorded a team-high 11 points over the last 10 games. He also leads the team with 26 shots on goal in that span, averaging 16.15 shot attempts per 60 minutes.

While with Höglander back in the mix, the Canucks lineup is healthier than it has been recently, it is still without several key pieces who will likely miss the rest of the season. Elias Pettersson (F), Filip Chytil, Tyler Myers and Nils Aman will all be sidelined for this matchup.

Thatcher Demko has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. Since returning from injury on March 24th, Demko is 3-2-0 with a .892 save percentage.

The Dallas Stars could be one of the league’s most intriguing teams to watch heading into the stretch. While they are 9-3-3 over the last 15 games, they have not looked nearly as convincing as that number suggests. Perhaps it’s hard to dig in and play an entirely sharp defensive game when you are finding ways to win so many without doing so, but the Stars have not looked like a good defensive team for a fairly large sample of play.

They were visibly bad defensively in recent wins over the Seattle Kraken, Calgary Flames, and Edmonton Oilers before finally getting a pair of deserving losses over the weekend versus the Pittsburgh Penguins and Minnesota Wild. The right side of the defence core does look quite weak, and with Miro Heiskanen out of the lineup, it has become much more of a flaw.

Over the last 15 games, the Stars have allowed 3.51 xGA/60 and a league-high 32.32 shots against per 60. They have received the second-highest save percentage in the league from Casey DeSmith and Jake Oettinger in that span and rank third in shooting percentage.

While the Stars have a quality goaltending tandem and more than enough offensive talent littered amongst the top three lines to finish chances at a higher than average rate, it’s unlikely the team will make a deep playoff run if it continues to defend like it has recently. Especially as they are currently staring down a tough matchup with the Colorado Avalanche in Round One.

Casey DeSmith has been confirmed as the Stars’ starter in this matchup. With a +16.6 GSAx and .921 save percentage this season, DeSmith has arguably been the best backup goaltender in the NHL.

As the Stars look to snap a two-game losing streak and keep some pressure on the Winnipeg Jets atop the division, it is no surprise to see that Dallas does appear to be a very popular bet on tonight’s slate. However, the Stars have clearly not been playing at the level their record suggests recently, and they were due for some losses.

The Stars’ defensive core is relatively flawed on paper compared to many contenders and has struggled for a relatively large sample of play. At -210, I see no value in backing Dallas, as that seems to be a steep number to back a team that has had to rely on incredible goaltending and unsustainable finishing rates to beat some pretty bad teams lately.

This does look like another good opportunity to target Boeser to record over 2.5 shots on goal, a prop that went 2-for-2 for us last week and continues to seem undervalued. This prop was priced at +110 over the weekend versus the Ducks and is now up at +140 based on how much more difficult this matchup is on paper.

However, considering that Dallas has allowed more shots against than any other team over the last month, +140 seems to be an overadjustment to what is perceived to be a hard matchup. Boeser has gone over 2.5 shots on goal in four of the last five games, and at +140, we are getting a good price to back that trend continuing as he takes on an overvalued defensive side.