The Vancouver Canucks will look to play the role of spoiler when they host the Minnesota Wild Saturday evening, as they begin a season-ending three-game home stand.

The Wild are limping towards the finish line with a record of 3-5-2 over the last ten games. After dropping an important matchup last night versus the Calgary Flames, they hold a three-point lead over Calgary heading into the final three games of the season, having played one more game.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Dealing with one of the league’s worst injury situations has provided the Wild with a significant excuse for their ugly recent results. However, they were at close to full strength in last night’s critical matchup versus the Flames and were still heavily outplayed in a 4-2 loss. Calgary outshot Minnesota 32 to 18 and led 3.88 to 1.81 in expected goal share.

On December 1st, the Wild held the best winning percentage in the NHL based on their record of 16-4-4, but have played to a 20th-ranked record of 27-26-3 since that point.

They have dealt with a string of significant injuries, as Kirill Kaprizov has played just 39 games, while Joel Eriksson Ek, Jonas Brodin, Mats Zuccarello, and Jared Spurgeon have also missed significant periods of play.

It is becoming far more difficult to say the Wild’s regression revolves entirely around the skaters who have been missing from the lineup, though. They are 10-11-3 since the 4 Nations Face-Off and hold an expected goal share of just 47.72% in that span. After being one of the stingiest teams in the league defensively early in the season, they have allowed 29.27 shots against per 60 since the break.

The Wild pulled number-one goaltender Filip Gustavsson in the third period of last night’s game after the Flames earned a four-goal lead. Gustavsson did not play badly by any means, and now that he has been confirmed as tonight’s starter, it’s clear that the team was attempting to keep him fresh for this game.

Gustavsson holds a +15.7 GSAx rating and a .914 save percentage in 56 appearances this season.

Though neither team had anything on the line, the Canucks were impressive in their upset victory over the Colorado Avalanche on Thursday evening. It was an evenly contested game in which the Avalanche outshot the Canucks 30-to-32 and held a 13-to-11 edge in high-danger scoring chances.

Elias Pettersson (D) was once again among the Canucks best skaters and continues to earn the trust of head coach Rick Tocchet as he gains valuable experience at the NHL level. Pettersson finished the game with a team-high 80.07% expected goal share and also poured in a team-high of five shots on goal.

Based on Thursday’s performance, it would be surprising to see Tocchet adjust his lineup entering this matchup.

Kevin Lankinen will likely get the start tonight as Rick Tocchet mentioned that Thatcher Demko is sick. Which would make sense, as the club called up goaltender Nikita Tolopilo this morning. With Tolopilo, Ty Mueller was summoned from AHL Abbotsford and will make his NHL debut tonight.

Lankinen has a 25-15-9 record on the season, with a 2.63 goals against average and a .901 save percentage.

In theory, the Wild should be the significantly more motivated side in this matchup as they look to avoid missing the playoffs with an all-time collapse, while the Canucks will also be doing a favour to one of their greatest rivals with a win. However, the Canucks clearly didn’t lay down in Thursday’s matchup versus the Avs’, and it’s unlikely that they won’t still compete their hardest on home ice in this matchup.

The Wild’s play has fallen off so significantly that it seems entirely reasonable to think Vancouver is a slight betting favourite in this matchup. It feels like a volatile spot to try and gauge a potential outcome in terms of a side, but from a general outlook, the prices on sides look fair to me.

Backing Suter to record a point at -128 does look to provide some value. Suter has played at a better than point-per-game pace for a fairly large sample and remains on the top line and top power play unit currently. The Wild have taken significant steps backward defensively, and playing them on night two of a back-to-back provides Suter with a pretty strong matchup to stay hot.