Monday Mailbag: Goldobin Trade Talk, Lukas Jasek’s Ceiling, and Trading For Luongo’s Contract

The obvious answer would be to trade someone, but since the need to create space exists mainly at forward, there don’t appear to be a lot of options. Pettersson, Boeser, and Horvat obviously aren’t going anywhere, Brandon Sutter probably isn’t getting moved until his limited NTC kicks in, Beagle and Roussel aren’t getting moved in the first year of their deals, and I highly doubt Markus Granlund or Tim Schaller is going to generate much interest. That basically just leaves Sven Baertschi and Nikolay Goldobin as possible trade bait. We’ll get to Goldobin later, but I could see Baertschi generating some interest from a few contending teams. The question is what the return would be and whether or not the Canucks would pull the trigger. I think it’s more likely they just waive someone. Granlund seems like the most likely candidate at the moment.

The benefit would be significant. Barring an unforeseen development, it’s the only way they can avoid the cap recapture penalties (which are pretty hefty).

It would be a fascinating trade to witness, because both sides would have an incentive to get the deal done. Cap space is something that obviously matters to the Canucks given that their ownership has generally been willing to spend to the cap throughout their tenure in Vancouver. The Panthers, on the other hand, are a budget team, and have made deals in the past to avoid spending too much. Vancouver probably benefits more from the trade than the Panthers do, given that his base salary drops to about $1.3 million next year, but it’s hard to envision a scenario where they wouldn’t take the Canucks up on an offer to pay a player that isn’t going to be on their active roster anyway.

Having said that, Luongo has given every indication that he’s going to play out the remainder of his deal, and I’ve spoken to a lot of folks on the Vancouver beat who believe him. Guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

I’m going to lump all the Goldobin trade questions together to avoid repetition. There are four angles to cover here:

Let’s start at the beginning. A Goldobin trade feels imminent to me given the way he’s been utilized by the coach and rumblings I’ve heard from a few people who are much closer to things than I am. Then again, i felt the same way about Ben Hutton, and here we are. Hutton was a player the Canucks gave every indication they wanted to move on from, but it appears as though a market never seriously materialized, and they’ve been accidentally rewarded. I wouldn’t discount the possibility that this could happen with Goldobin, too.

As far as what his value is, I’d assume something like a third or fourth-round pick, an equivalent prospect or a fringe NHLer. Sven Baertschi was a similarly maligned but talented young player when the Canucks acquired him for a second rounder in 2015, (in fact, Goldobin actually has a more established track record in the NHL than Baertschi did when he was acquired,) so that is what Goldobin ought to be worth in a just universe. There’s also a distinct possibility the Canucks could flip him for another promising young player who hasn’t earned the trust of his organization, and that’s probably the closest thing to an ideal scenario as you’re going to get for both parties.

As far as what the Canucks will actually get for him in return should they decide to move on, my guess would be a safer but ultimately less dynamic young player with significantly less upside. That’s generally been the team’s M.O. in the past with deals like this. Sometimes it’s been a marginal win (Granlund), other times a marginal loss (Clendening). One thing is absolutely certain, though: no matter what the return is, the arguments that will be had about it will be absolutely exhausting.

This is actually kind of a complicated question to give a good answer to, given that it would require a deep understanding of the history of the NCAA vs that of USports, Canada’s equivalent. I don’t really have time to get into any of that, so the best I can do is just describe the two leagues as they currently exist.

The NCAA just has way more to offer a collegiate athlete. College sports are an absolute cash cow in the United States and as a result the league has grown to encompass way more teams playing at a much higher level than in Canada. The United States also just has more world-class schools than Canada does, as you might expect in a country that’s roughly 10 times more populous. Perhaps most importantly, the best Canadian players all play in the CHL, which puts USports at another disadvantage given that the best talent will remain in that league until they are 19-21 years old.

I’m not an expert on university-level sports by even the wildest stretch of the imagination, but these are my best guesses. Basically, the two leagues evolved differently and have very different relationships with their respective countries’ junior leagues, and are also significantly influenced by conditions that are unique to their respective countries.

I’m reluctant to put a ceiling on Jasek at this stage if only because he spent so much time riding the pine in his home country and this season is the first real chance we’ve had to get a serious look at what he can do, The early returns are looking pretty good. He has 18 points in 33 games as a 21-year-old rookie with the Comets, which is quite impressive. For comparison, Jonathan Dahlen has 20 points in 37 games, which is a nearly identical scoring rate when pro-rated for a full season. Jasek doesn’t have anywhere near the same level of pedigree and is only four months older, so how outlandish would it be to suggest that they have similar ceilings at this stage? I honestly have no idea and I don’t think many others will until we have at least a full season to judge him on. He looks like he could be a player, though. That couldn’t have been said with any level of confidence a year ago.

If his production stays at roughly the same level it’s been throughout the season, the conversation starts with a first-round pick. Defensemen with his pedigree don’t grow on trees, and are rarely made available without the expectation of a significant return. As far as his next contract goes, I don’t see how it could be any less than two years at five million dollars, and that would be an extremely team-friendly deal. I guarantee there’s a team out there willing to give him at least another year.

I’d be comfortable predicting that he could replace any one of the Canucks depth forwards without the team feeling any impact whatsoever. That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement, but we’re talking about a guy the team signed as a CHL free agent, so it’s a big win nonetheless.

I’m not going to make very many friends with this answer, but it’s still the Oilers. Until we see either team take a huge step forward when it comes to the supporting cast, tie goes to the team with the best player in the world, and that’s not Vancouver (as good as Pettersson has been). If Peter Chiarelli were fired tomorrow and replaced with an average general manager I don’t think we’d even be having this conversation.