Making Trades: Trading down in the Top 10

There is a slight possibility that the Canucks trade down a couple of spots while gaining some additional assets. It would be a prudent way to leverage their high draft position and recoup multiple futures. We obviously don’t know what will happen over the next few weeks, and things change very quickly.

I would likely lean towards staying at 5th and taking the best player available, but there may be a offer that they can’t pass up. 

Dan Murphy at Sportsnet confirmed early last week that the Canucks aren’t looking to trade down:

Then days later, Farhan Lalji of TSN, said that talks will intensify this upcoming week:

So, it’s clear that we don’t what will happen but the Canucks will do their due diligence.

With that, one very important caveat of this whole thing would that they need to remain in the Top 10. It’s fair to suggest that after the 12th pick, there is a drop off in player quality. Thus by staying within the top 10, the Canucks are able to have some control over who they take while still ensuring that they add one of the high end prospects.

Travis Yost at TSN did a very good job of trying to add value ratings to draft picks placing a value on each pick based on adjusted games played. It does provide some insight into what teams could offer to move up, but doesn’t factor the aspects of ‘supply and demand’ that is present leading up to the draft, nor does it give a perfect formula, as that is the expected value based on averages not the definitive value. So it’s something to consider when looking at the trade proposals, but like all stats/values, should be a piece of the pie.

We obviously aren’t privy to what is being offered, this is just an exercise to see if there is a fit somewhere and what the other teams have to offer.

Let’s take a look at the team’s following the Canucks, the Calgary Flames have been excluded as there likely isn’t a deal to be had for one draft spot.

Under newly appointed GM John Chayka, there is a possibility that Arizona looks to move up in the draft order. Both Auston Matthews and Matthew Tkachuk are Arizona born and both would represent a good PR spin for the desert dogs. I highly doubt that the Maple Leafs will trade out of first overall, unless it’s a crazy package that they can’t say no to. It’s possible that happens, but given how little that first overall pick has been moved in the past, I would expect it to remain in the Maple Leafs possession and they walk away with Auston Matthews.

That means that Matthew Tkachuk is another likely target, if the Coyotes are looking to move up, with the catch being that Tkachuk could go 4th overall. If Tkachuk is not taken by the Edmonton Oilers (or a team trading up to 4th), then suddenly Arizona could be interested in moving up to take the young winger. Matthew’s father, Keith Tkachuk played his best five seasons as a Coyote, so drafting his son would be a positive spin for on this team on the rise.

If the Canucks and Coyotes are discussing a trade, it’s safe to assume that their high end prospects and young players like Christian Dvorak, Max Domi, Dylan Strome and Oliver Ekman-Larsson are not part of the discussion. But Arizona possesses the 7th, 20th, 37th, 53rd and 68th overall picks in the first three rounds. They also have some very good second tier prospects like Christian Fischer or Ryan MacInnis that may be of interest to the Canucks.

So, if there is a deal to be had, there isn’t a lack of possibilities for the Canucks to drop a couple of spots in the draft. 

It’s quite common of the host team of the NHL Entry Draft to make a splash on the draft floor, so Buffalo is a team who may want to move up. Their system doesn’t have a specific need but could use a boost in both their forward and defensive ranks.

Like Arizona, the Sabres possess quite a few picks in the first three rounds that they could dangle to move up .

Not quite the same value as the Coyotes picks, but they do have the quantity there to package a few with hopes of moving up. Buffalo also has a few prospects that might be available such as Brycen Martin, Nicholas Baptiste or Eric Cornel.

Unless the Canucks are look for a bushel full of picks, I personally don’t see a fit, nor do I think that Buffalo has the desire to move up in the draft. More likely the Sabres would peddle those assets to get a ‘now’ player to wow the crowd at the First Niagara Center.

The Canadians are another team that may look to make a splash after a disappointing second half that resulted in them missing the playoffs. Quite a few bloggers and writers in Montreal have suggested that the  Habs should consider trading up to select Pierre-Luc Dubois. Like Arizona, from a PR perspective it would be favourable for the Canadiens to select a local grown prospect in the Quebec native Dubois.

Let’s be clear, if he is available, I feel that the Canucks should take Dubois. But that shouldn’t change the fact that the Canucks should listen to what is out there.

Currently Montreal holds the 9th, 39th, 45th and 70th overall picks. But they also have a bounty of prospects that could be offered including Abbotsford native defenceman Noah Juulsen, Charles Hudon, Michael McCarran, Nikita Scherbak, Martin Reway and Jacob De La Rose.

Some of those prospects are likely swinging for the fences as they are NHL ready, but moving up 4 spots is a fairly large jump in value. Thus the Canucks should be trying to maximize their return to the best of their abilities.

Your guess is as good as mine on what the Colorado Avalanche will do. There are rumours that they will trade everyone except Nathan MacKinnon. Suffice to say, they are a wild card.

The Avalanche do currently possess the 10th, 40th and 71st picks in the first three rounds, however it’s very plausible they will get some more picks back in any of the trades that they accomplish. However it would make more sense for them to flip those picks for NHL players, rather than moving up to select a different player. But who knows, for all we know, Colorado could trade all their picks.

From the Canucks standpoint, 10th overall is the largest step down and thus the most unlikely. By moving down to 10th, they are entering the territory of taking the best player left rather than controlling who they take. Thus it’s highly unlikely these teams come together on a deal involving their first round picks, unless it’s part of a large deal involving roster players.

We obviously have no idea what the Canucks are specifically targeting, but based recent track record of trades it’s safe to assume that they would like to ensure they get some ‘win now’ pieces too. Some of the teams above, Arizona and Montreal specifically, will be able to offer that while still allowing the Canucks to pick up additional picks.

It may depend on who is available at 5th overall, but it’s fair that a deal could be had, if the Canucks wanted to.

With GM Jim Benning at the helm, the Canucks have done extremely well on the draft floor and gaining more picks on the draft floor is a great way to ensure they get as many picks as possible. Dropping a few spots here and there, but gaining additional picks is a great way to take advantage of a frenzied market and leverage that to your advantage.