Mailbag Part Two: Goldobin’s Next Contract, Josh Ho-Sang, and Duty Now For the Future

I think Sven Beartschi is a reasonable comparison to make. After a breakout season in 2015-16, Baertschi signed a two-year deal paying him 1.85 million per season. Goldobin is looking like he could be on his way to establishing a better track record at this stage of his career that Baertschi, but I still think a short-term deal somewhere in the neighbourhood of 2 million AAV is the most likely outcome. Ask me again when the season is over and my answer may be different.

Unfortunately, there isn’t really a catch-all single stat to measure player or team quality. At the team level, Corsi is the best indicator of which teams are playing the best two-way hockey, but since there’s more than one way to skin a cat, it’s not always predictive of team success. Expected goals are an interesting step in the right direction, but unfortunately the best model is no longer active and the models that are currently available in the public sphere have yet to prove they hold significant predictive value.

The best thing to do is to familiarize yourself with the strengths and weaknesses of things like shot shares (Corsi, Fenwick), rate stats (P/60, G/60, FA/60, etc.) and to do your best to keep up with the great work that’s being done tracking microstatistics by people like Corey Sznajder. Once you do that, then you can consider what a player is being asked to do, and use these statistics to consider whether or not they are playing well within their prescribed role. For example, in some instances, you may be better off judging a shutdown defender based on the rate of shots they’re conceding (FA/60) as opposed to the sum total of the shots being conceded and created when they’re on the ice (Corsi, Fenwick) in some instances. It’s also important to look at how players perform at different strengths. A player like Brandon Sutter, for instance, doesn’t always bring a lot of value at even strength, but helps his team on the penalty kill.

To learn more, a great place to start is Rob Vollman’s Stat Shot, which is billed as the ultimate guide to hockey analytics.

As far as bad statistics go, just don’t listen to anyone who’s trying to sell you on the importance of plus-minus or on-ice save percentage. They’re peddling snake oil.

Teams are moving away from the 2D formation and rightfully so, it’s proven to be less effective. You’re correct in pointing out that they allow too many scoring chances, though. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Canucks have the sixth-worst scoring chance-differential on the power play. That has a lot to do with how much time Derrick Pouliot, who has far and away the worst rate of scoring chances against on the power play among Canucks defenders, has spent manning the point. At this point, I’d say it’s Alex Edler’s job to lose. I wouldn’t mind seeing Troy Stecher get an opportunity, too. Either way, anyone who’s playing the point this season on the first unit is essentially keeping the spot warm until Quinn Hughes makes the team.

I highly doubt it. I’d imagine it’s going to take some serious injuries in the top six before we see Reid Boucher again. I also wouldn’t single out Eriksson or Granlund as the ones to go. For me, that conversation has to begin with Tim Schaller, who’s brought absolutely nothing to the Canucks lineup so far this season.

As I mentioned earlier this week, I think the Nylander contract is good news for the Canucks. I’ve heard 8 million dollars bandied about a lot over the last few months as a possible AAV figure for Boeser’s second contract, but now that a reasonably comparable player has signed for under 7 I don’t think that’s happening. In Pettersson’s case, I think it’s far too early to say. There’s a good chance by the end of this ELC he’s consider a cut above the other two.

The Jets are the more complete team at the current moment, but the Leafs are slightly better positioned long-term and play in an easier division. It’s a toss-up right now. I’ll give it to the Jets but that may not last long.

I’d be in favour of it, for the right price of course. With Lou Lamoriello in charge in Brooklyn it’s hard to imagine a worse situation for Ho-Sang to find himself in, or that the Isles would be looking for much in return. If they could get him for a mid-to-late pick or a B-level prospect it’s definitely something I’d explore. I have no idea what the Islanders would be looking for in return, though.

Brandon Sutter coming back and improving the Canucks PK won’t be enough to save their season by a long shot. As far as Scherbak is concerned, he does seem to fit the mold of a player Jim Benning might have some interest in, but the Canucks just don’t seem that inclined to pick up players on the waiver wire. More intriguing players have been available in the past and they’ve looked the other way, so it’s tough to say.

Right now we’re heading in the other direction. The connection has been made before, though not nearly often enough for my liking, between impending climate-related catastrophe and the rise of far-right nativist and anti-immigrant policies around the globe. With virtually no meaningful action being taken against rising temperatures in the United States, sending troops to the U.S.-Mexico border is effectively the biggest climate change-related policy in modern history. If meaningful action is not taken soon to combat climate change, we’ll be seeing migrant crises that make the current one look like a cakewalk in fairly short order.

In many ways, the “culling” you’re speaking about is already happening in the United States, albeit indirectly. Millions of people are uninsured, underemployed, and even without access to clean drinking water. It may not be as explicit as saying, “we’re going to cull the undesirables”, but it has the same effect.

Now this is an interesting question. Industrial capitalism, particularly in the North American context, is poorly equipped to deal with the prospect of a post-work society. It’s something modern progressives are frankly pretty poorly equipped to handle, too. I won’t spend all day pontificating but I think it’s obvious that should we find ourselves with the society you’re describing on the horizon, it would require changes in our cultural attitudes about the value of work, but more importantly the vast redistribution of wealth and resources and the restructuring of the economy.

The good news is, you and I will both have boiling sea water in our lungs long before that ever happens.

I don’t really have anything to say about this, I just wanted to include it.