Mailbag Part 2: Team Size, Team Defense, and Team Tank

I did a bit of digging and found an article from the offseason by Daniel Wagner that addressed this topic.

Based on his conclusions, there doesn’t appear to be a correlation, or at least there wasn’t last season:

Wagner’s article also contained this graph, which does a nice job of illustrating the distribution:

This makes sense considering that players who dole out or take a lot of hits tend to break down more quickly.

Obviously, not all big hitters are big players, but a lot are. Either way, I think it’s pretty safe to assume injuries have more to do with play style, conditioning, and pure dumb luck than size.

Not at all. Sure, the team just snapped out of an ugly eight-game skid, but I think they’ve looked better than many were anticipating. Travis Green has also made some bold choices that have paid off, not the least of which was starting Elias Pettersson at centre.

Jim Benning was patient with Willie Desjardins, who I think showed less aptitude for the job of an NHL coach over the course of his time than Travis Green has. While he’s made a few questionable lineup decisions like any other coach, his system is suited to the modern NHL and he’s done a good job of handling the team’s young players. It’s going to take more than a bad couple of weeks to put him on the hot seat.

I don’t think you can look at the powerhouses in the Central Division and say with a straight face that the Canucks are only a few moves away from competing. Looking at the roster and the players they have in their system, I think it’s fair to say that they need to add some scoring on the wing and a couple of defensemen before they can turn things around. If it were up to me, I’d be aggressive this season in attempting to deal most of the team’s players over 25 and try to bottom out again in hopes of getting another pick in the top five. Then you can start building back up in the hopes that they can start competing as Pettersson and Hughes enter their second contracts.

I think I covered just about everything with regards to tanking so I’ll address the other two questions.

I feel sort of uncomfortable ranking the Canucks defense because there are so many question marks right now. I’m tempted to say Edler is still their best defensemen, but his underlying numbers were genuinely horrid to start the season and he’s still returning from injury. I’ll do my best, with the caveat that there’s a lot of room for Edler and Tanev to move up or down based on how they age:

As far as the other question goes, I think Winnipeg has more talent and potential, but Nashville is the better team right now. Winnipeg will probably overtake them as the Central’s best team within the next three years.

At this point I could really see it going either way. It’s going to depend a lot on what they choose to do with Alex Edler and/or Ben Hutton, and how they feel about Olli Juolevi. At least two left-handed defenders on the current roster will need to be gone next year just to make room for one of Quinn Hughes or Juolevi. Mchael Del Zotto will be gone for sure, which means one of Pouliot, Hutton, and Edler as the odd man out. Of that group, Pouliot makes the most sense, but if the team decides to move on from Alex Edler then I could see them bringing Pouliot back to be the seventh D.

The only things that really act as a deterrent are fines and suspensions. Players have been shamed for much worse than diving multiple times over their careers and it’s had no tangible effect. I don’t see why diving would be the exception.

I assume once he retires, yes.

Comets Cory is going to be happy with this answer, but I think Zack MacEwen makes the most sense. At some point, the numbers speak for themselves. He’s got 15 points in 21 games so far this season and has earned praise from many different corners of the hockey world. He also projects well in a bottom-six role and doesn’t have as much riding on his success as players like Jonathan Dahlen or Kole Lind, which makes him a prime candidate to make the team next season.

It’s certainly possible but I don’t think Aqualini will be keen to lose another member of the front office so soon after Linden’s exit. Regardless of what anyone involved has said, I think he’s more conscious of how he’s perceived in the market and will want to avoid looking like his presence creates a dysfunctional environment in the front office.

I addressed this a little bit in a previous question, but if I had to guess the most likely scenario, I think Hutton will be the only member of that group that returns. We’re starting to hear rumblings that the Canucks are interested in moving Alex Edler, and I think they’ll be keen to get Hughes and Juolevi into the lineup next year. Pretty much everyone agrees the defense needs a serious makeover, and there just isn’t a ton of room for movement on the right side, so I think there’s a real chance Ben Hutton is the only left-handed defenseman that returns next season.