Mailbag Part 2: Draft Talk, Offer Sheeting Mitch Marner, and Organizational Weaknesses

Obviously he should want to play for the Canucks, because no one can appreciate a pair of brothers like Vancouver; but unfortunately knowing Canuck Luck he’d just end up going one spot before Vancouver picks anyway. Elias Pettersson is a franchise player, and that means the team has probably used up all their draft luck for the next 15-20 years.

It’s been surprisingly quiet on that front so far. By this time last season, I had started to hear speculation on how the team felt about different players at the top of the draft, but that hasn’t been the case this season. I’d imagine that’s because there’s a lot less certainty about where the Canucks will be picking this year.

I think it’s a little of Column A and a little of Column B. I think it would be fair to say his development was rushed and that he could have benefited from at least another full year in Liiga or with AHL Bakersfield before making the jump to the NHL. That having been said, it’s possible there were some holes in the analysis that lead to him being widely considered the best prospect in the 2016 draft after Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine. I wonder if being so closely compared to Laine oversold his abilities somewhat. Laine’s season was genuinely otherworldly, behind only Aleksander Barkov and Mikael Granlund in scoring by a U18 player, whereas Puljujarvi was lagging behind somewhat, lodged between less impressive names like Joel Armia and Juuso Ikonen. Over the course of just 50 games, it’s certainly possible something conspired to make him look better than he actually was, and since he’s been up and down between Bakersfield and Edmonton for most of his career, he hasn’t had a chance to prove he can be an elite offensive contributor at any other level.

I do. I imagine this situation will play out similarly to the one with Ben Hutton last summer. They’ll look around, see what’s out there, and not be impressed with the offers. Then they’ll be rewarded for their inaction.

To be completely honest, I think the Goldobin situation is overblown. There are issues there for sure, but if they could repair the relationship with Hutton, Goldobin is going to be fine. I’d imagine they’d have already moved on if they were that unimpressed and there were any real offers for him.

A big part of the reason we never see offer sheets is because as the dollar figures get higher and higher (and into the territory where a team is unlikely to match), so does the amount of draft picks a team has to give up. At the highest level, not only are you paying the player over $10 million, but you’re also giving up four first-round picks. That’s just an insane amount of value to give up for any player unless you’re a cup contender, and chances are you probably aren’t if you have over ten million dollars in cap space. How many players are truly worth four first-round picks on the trade market right now? I would estimate less than 5. I’m not sure Marner is one of them.

As far as the Canucks are concerned, I just don’t see how it makes sense. They probably aren’t going to be a great team for at least another year or two, which means the picks they’d be giving up are likely to be in the top 20, and that’s a conservative estimate. For that reason alone I think they should pass, and that’s before considering salary cap implications.

I was surprised to discover that Ryan Biech is the only one of us that’s currently blocked by McCagg. I was blocked very briefly but it didn’t last long and he’s been oddly patient with me so far. I hope he never blocks me again because honestly his tweets are one of the few things on this earth that truly bring me joy.

I’m not completely certain because the Canucks’ coaching staff all have very nondescript titles. For example, Malhotra is just listed as an assistant coach, which doesn’t seem very descriptive. Doug Jarvis’ role isn’t specified apart from being a “senior advisor” which could mean anything. They have a skills coach, Glenn Carnegie, and Dan Cloutier’s position as Director of Goaltending is a rarity among NHL teams, but I have no idea how much they differ from the rest of the league on an operational level.

It’s very close, but I think I would stick with Quinn Hughes. Some of that is probably the endowment effect, or the fact that Quinn Hughes was “my guy” in that draft and they picked him, which is a rewarding experience; but I’m also pretty convinced he’s the superior prospect. He had a more impressive rookie season despite being younger than Makar was and he’s one of the most dynamic skaters I’ve ever seen (although Makar is no slouch in that department, either). I’d hate to actually be faced with that choice in real life for fear of making the wrong call but from the comfort of my armchair I feel fairly confident saying I would pass.

Without knowing where they’re picking and who’s available I would say Anttoni Honka, since he’s a right-shot defender and the Canucks could desperately use one of those, but I’m not entirely convinced he should be taken in the top 20. My other answer is Cole Caufield, who has top-ten skill but stands at just 5’6″ and will likely be taken much later than he ought to be based solely on his stature. If the Canucks make the playoffs and are selecting in the middle of the first round, he’d be a worthy target.

Their biggest weakness by far remains on defense, as evidenced by the fact that the organization appears to believe that their two best defenders are the same as they were five years ago. There’s a pretty solid argument to be had that Troy Stecher is really their best defender, and everyone expects Quinn Hughes will take up that mantle in short order, but there really isn’t a lot of help coming and the current crop of defenders have struggled for the past few seasons.

As far as how they address the issue, they could throw a bunch of money at Erik Karlsson, but I don’t imagine he’d be that interested in Vancouver when there will be a multitude of other teams lining up to sign him. Apart from that, there isn’t really a quick fix. They can acquire picks and prioritize defensemen in the middle of the draft, and hope Jett Woo continues his impressive development path. There are no quick fixes.