July 1st Preview: the Landscape and the Free Agent Targets

“I think Lack is ready to be a No.1 goalie, but not a workhorse starter. We saw the slippage in his play during that silly run of 20 straight, and he is at a stage of development where being able to manage his own game without enough time to work on it with the goalie coach between starts is counterproductive, not just to his long-term growth, but to playing well as those starts pile up. I guess for me the bigger question marks are about Markstrom being able to play well in those 30 to 35 games needed to make sure Lack gets that time this season. We saw some good signs in his last start, and talking to Markstrom it seems some of what Melanson had been trying to get through to him clicked between those last two starts and he felt better about how he was able to translate it in that last game, but seems there are questions yet within the organization and that kind of leaves the Canucks in no-man’s land, at least when it comes to this season. I believe with a proper workload and continued development, Lack can be better than anyone you can get in free agency by the end, if not the middle, of this season. Heck, Markstrom may have a shot at it too, but obviously it’s risky.”

“I struggle with this a bit. Think the truth lies somewhere in between the Vezina Trophy winner the Canucks will tout him if they do sign him, and the over-the-hill former star that a lot of people online begging the Canucks not to sign him are making him out to be. He’s still above league average, but perhaps just not so much so that you should be throwing piles of money and several years at him. Did his numbers suffer behind a bad Buffalo team? Or do the bad goals get forgotten faster in those circumstances and can save percentage numbers actually be inflated in some of those 40+ shot barrages?

Certainly Chris Boyle’s SQP work suggest as much. You could argue he played with less pressure there the last few years as a result of low expectations, and it can be easy to be the goalie getting bombarded when no one blames you for giving up three a game, but i think that also diminishes what a competitive guy he is, and i hear that from a lot of people. I had a couple of NHL goalie coaches suggest he may have become a good bad-team goalie last few years, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be good on a good team as well, it just requires an adjustment to expectations and perhaps in the style he plays as well. Question is how willing he is to make the latter adjustments (more on that below).

One underreported aspect of his last few years: the concussion from the Lucic incident derailed most of that season and he played through the symptoms for a long stretch.

To me, a bigger question, or at least one with a more concrete answer, is the style he plays and whether that fits the Canucks. Miller is what we call a rhythm goalie, relying more on his feel and ability to read and react. Not saying that like a bad thing, but the natural tendency is the more you rely on timing instead of technique and preset tactics, the more prone you leave yourself to ups and down. his ability to stay consistent early in his career spoke to his incredible focus and compete but I do believe his more aggressive tendencies made St. Louis a poor fit, at least in a short term arrangement with little time to adjust. The Sabres played it more open, allowing Miller to make those reads that are so crucial to his game, but the Blues were more along the lines of many collapsing, shot blocking defences, crowding the area in front of the crease. So Miller playing above the paint threatened to strand him with too much space to recover when those shots were blocked, especially since the goalie doesn’t get to feel that puck and know where it is headed next out of those crowds. Different style and not one that necessarily suited his game with little time to adapt.

“I struggle to see one and i am not alone in this. Melanson has bent a little but remains pretty firm in his belief goalies need to play a contained game with blue ice in front of their toes. Miller is certainly not a Jonathan Quick level of aggressive positionally, and backed off considerably from his early years, but he also told some people that being asked to play deeper behind a more collapsing Blues team threw him off a bit. Only the two of them know how receptive they are to changing their styles, but a lot of the evidence to this point suggests neither is going to embrace it with open arms. Miller is more aggressive in terms of things like poke checks, and it has cost him in big moments like the goal medal game and at least once i can recall during 2014 playoffs. Meanwhile Rollie has gone as far as taping a big knob above the handle on Lack’s stick to try and get him to do it less even in practices, and I don’t even think of Lack as a big pokecheck guy. I am not trying to make a big issue of something as small as a pokecheck, but it’s more a look at different mindsets in terms of how they think goalies should approach the game.

“To me the money only hurts your ability to sign and acquire assets needed for rest of the roster, but it seems like some of those needs are somewhat dire and in this free agent class could be costly so why overspend in a position where buyer should have all the leverage. That said, opportunity cost on handing out term is scarier. Ideally you’d love to see a one or two year deal, one that isn’t so long it creates a ceiling that forces a guy like Lack out. We’ve seen how that plays out already. But will Miller take a deal like that? Is anyone else lining up to offer anything longer? I don’t have those answers to be honest.”

“Hiller may be not as good as Miller statistically but he fits style-wise better right now, adds experience element they seem to think they are lacking and may be more willing to take that shorter deal — but that too is speculative. Personally, while names like Brodeur and even Nabokov and Vokoun will steal the headlines, I expect smart teams who value and use their goalie coach’s insights to target the Justin Peters and Al Montoya types first. Top of my head I’ll bet they offer better value statistically, are still improving in some respects (especially Peters) and they are prepared to do the extra work that is expected of a backup, which is no small thing compare to a Brodeur, and important to a team. Greiss, despite the late season disappointment, falls into this category too, and Chad Johnson may get a look, though i know some goalie coaches are having a harder time separating him from the team play that allowed him to post Rask-like numbers in Boston — too bad their GMs didn’t worry as much about it in their Vezina votes as they are now with their salary cap spending. Even hearing some interest in Nilstorp ahead of more veteran guys as a backup.”