How Tyler Toffoli’s Age Factors into his Future with the Canucks

The Canucks’ acquisition of Tyler Toffoli was met with equal parts excitement and derision over the hefty price Vancouver paid to get him. While the team as a whole has struggled since Toffoli’s arrival, there’s no question that he’s made a major impact on an individual level. Through seven games, Toffoli has five goals (leads the team over this span) and two assists while seamlessly filling in for the injured Brock Boeser on Vancouver’s top line. In fact, the predictive metrics are nearly identical when we compare the Lotto Line to Toffoli’s time with Elias Pettersson and JT Miller.

(Data courtesy Moneypuck.com)

According to moneypuck.com, Miller and Pettersson have not skipped a beat in the production department at 5-on-5 with Toffoli in their small sample of minutes together.

Once Boeser does return, the Canucks are left with flexibility in their top-six with the option to leave this line together and reunite Boeser with Bo Horvat or go back to the Lotto Line and pair Toffoli with his old LA Kings teammate, Tanner Pearson. When healthy, Vancouver’s top-six has the makings of two potent scoring lines, something the city has not seen in a long time.

With Toffoli’s contract expiring at the end of the season, Canucks management will have to decide if they want to commit to the 27-year-old for the long-term. Research from Eric Tulsky (Current VP of Hockey Management and Strategy for the Carolina Hurricanes) in 2014 found that historically, the average NHL forward’s production plateaus around their age 24-season and into their late 20’s. Once they hit their early 30’s, the average player retains roughly 80% of their offensive output and continually drops off thereafter. Toffoli turns 28 in April and is producing close to his career-high with 2.35 points-per-60 in his seven games with the Canucks.

(Data courtesy Naturalstattrick.com)

This rate would put him in the top-50 of NHL forwards this season, which is legitimate first-line production, but I wouldn’t call this a resurgence in Toffoli’s career or evidence that he will age like a fine wine. The sample size needs to be taken into account, although it’s promising that he was having a bounce-back season with the Kings before the trade. I think his uptick is partly due to him being in a contract year on top of playing with top-line players in Miller and Pettersson. However, from what we know about a player’s production curve as they age, I think it’s is reasonable to expect Toffoli to be capable of at least another 2 seasons of top-six production provided he has the linemates to help him get there. Of course, not all players are cut from the same cloth and Toffoli’s game doesn’t rely on athleticism and speed, two traits that decline with age. Toffoli relies on his smart positioning and his shot to be an effective offensive player which could bode well for production in his 30’s.

All of this is a roundabout way of saying that Toffoli is still young enough, in my opinion, to warrant a new contract from the Canucks in the off-season. Toffoli should have, health permitting, another two seasons of legitimate top-six production in him at even-strength and should be a consistent power-play contributor into his 30’s.

Toffoli is on the older side of Vancouver’s core but should still be able to keep up as Elias Pettersson turns 24 and Quinn Hughes turns 23. Here are the Canucks’ core’s ages in the 2022-23 season:

This should be the season that Vancouver will be pushing for deep playoff runs as Pettersson, Boeser, and Hughes will be in their primes. Tyler Toffoli will be 30 and should still be able to be a key contributor on the wing. Part of the fun will be hoping that Vasili Podkolzin or Nils Hoglander will be pushing for Toffoli’s place in the top-six by this time as well and will be part of the succession plan as Toffoli ages.

I conducted a personal research project for my YouTube channel where I examined what previous Stanley Cup winners did at the trade deadline. The biggest takeaway for me was not what those teams did at the deadline the year they won the Cup but rather, the moves they made in the years leading up to their championship. The Kings prior to winning in 2012 acquired Jeff Carter and his big contract who was instrumental in their two Stanley Cups. They also traded for Dustin Penner a year prior to 2012 who played a large role in their first Cup victory. The Penguins traded for Trevor Dailey, Carl Hagelin, and Justin Schultz who were key pieces in their back-to-back championships and the Blackhawks acquired Johnny Oduya on the 2012 deadline who would help them in 2013 and 2015.

The Vancouver Canucks aren’t quite at the same level as those teams when they bought at the deadline, but Toffoli is one of those pieces that can help now and for at least the next three seasons. Considering the package that Vancouver paid for Toffoli, it would be wise to try and retain some of the value that they gave up by re-signing Toffoli if they can make it fit under their salary cap. All of this is under the premise that his contract is reasonable. If Toffoli is looking for big money then the Canucks may have to cut their losses and accept him as being just a short-term player. This is a problem for management to worry about in June. If they can move around salary without foregoing any of the big prospects while bringing back Toffoli on a fair contract, that would be a win given the circumstances.