Comparing The Team’s October 2018 Performance With That Of Past Octobers

October of 2018 has come and gone and the Vancouver Canucks have defied all odds—ending the month at the very top of the Pacific Division standings. Enthusiastic—if cautious—optimism is running rampant in Vancouver, with visions of playoff berths dancing in fans’ heads. The hype is real, but it does raise the question of whether this edition of the Canucks is truly doing any better than the previous rosters that ended up in the league’s basement by April.

Who better to address that query than cold, hard, unhypeable statistics? We’ve compiled the Canucks’ October stats from this season and the last four—which include three lottery finishes and one playoff appearance, for comparison’s sake—in order to answer the question that’s on everyone’s mind: How Good Are The 2018/19 Vancouver Canucks, Really?

 

First, a quick refresher on how the previous four seasons ended to add a bit of context to the comparisons.

 

 

 

The 2018 Canucks have earned more points than any other October edition of the team in recent memory, but they’ve also played 14 games—most in the league, something that goes a long way toward explaining their current perch atop the Pacific Division. A more meaningful statistic for this exercise is Point Percentage, a measure of the percentage of available points a team actually earned.

 

The Point Percentage of the 2018/19 Canucks paints a very different picture than their point total or place in the standings. This edition of the team simply isn’t earning points at the same rate that they did the last time they made the playoffs—in fact, their rate isn’t even as good as it was in 2015 or 2017 when the Canucks finished near the bottom of the Pacific. It’s barely above their 2016 percentage, and that season saw them end up with the second-worst record in the league.

Goal Differential is probably the least meaningful statistic in this article when it comes to comparing Octobers. With so few games played, one or two blowouts can easily skew this stat in either direction. For example, the 2016 Canucks were doing just fine until they ended the month by going -8 over the course of three games. October 27’s 5-0 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins hangs heavily over the 2018 Canucks in this regard.

That being said, the current edition of the Canucks are defined by their defensive struggles as much—if not more—than their offensive successes, so the team registering a minus in this category seems fitting. It might not mean much when it comes to comparing the team to past editions, but the eye test suggests it’s a stat that is indicative of what can be expected from the remainder of the season.

It makes sense to think of the power play in terms of Pre- and Post-Newell Brown eras, as the assistant coach rejoined the team in the summer of 2017 and has been largely responsible for that side of the special teams ever since. Brown’s influence seems to have righted a powerplay that had abysmal returns in the 2016/17 season, but the team’s success rate with the man-advantage is still nothing to write home about—and a far cry from where it was during their last playoff appearance—even with the emergence of Elias Pettersson.

The Penalty Kill in Vancouver has been steadily mediocre over the past few seasons, and that doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon. That being said, October has also seen injuries to key penalty killers like Chris Tanev, Alex Edler, Brandon Sutter, and Jay Beagle, so there’s some reason for optimism. When those players return, the team’s results on the PK should improve—and perhaps even approach the level of a playoff quality team.

I had hoped to see evidence of the “Manny Malhotra Effect” in this category, but it’s just not there. Fortunately, faceoffs are relatively random at the best of times, and one month represents a small sample size, so it’s best to take these numbers with a grain of salt. The Canucks’ four-point drop from last October to this one can easily be chalked up to Jay Beagle’s injury and Elias Pettersson still figuring out this part of the game.

 First, a word on this “enhanced” stat for those readers who are, like me, a bit analytically illiterate. What NHL.com refers to as “Shot Attempt Percentage” is more commonly known as “Corsi For” Percentage. If that’s still not ringing any bells, the stat represents the percentage of the total shot attempts a team makes versus those made by their opponents. For the purposes of this stat, “shot attempts” are considered to be actual shots on net, those that missed the net, and blocked shots. Overall, it’s a measure of possession—with the idea that the team that makes the most attempts on net is likely in possession of the puck more often and doing a better job of controlling the play. If a team spends a lot of time with the puck in their opponent’s zone, they’re more likely to win the game, so this stat can typically demonstrate a team’s actual ability level quite well—even over a relatively small period of time.

Unfortunately, that doesn’t bode well for the 2018 Canucks. Their SAT% is lower than that of the last four editions of the team at this point, and it’s also the fourth-worst in the league. In other words, the Canucks—and in particular, Elias Pettersson and Bo Horvat—are making the most of their opportunities when they get them, but the team as a whole is not controlling the play the majority of the time. This suggests that, as the season winds on, the losses might start to pile up in Vancouver, even if Pettersson and Horvat keep scoring.

Fans of the team have every right to be excited about this young and dynamic edition of the Vancouver Canucks, but any serious optimism should be dampened by a look at these numbers. In reality, the key difference between the Canucks’ performance in October of 2018 and the last three Octobers is the number of games played. Statistically, the team is doing a fair bit worse than last year’s squad—and their numbers aren’t all that much better than those of the basement-dwelling 2016/17 edition.

Yes, injuries have been a major factor, but they always are in Vancouver. Meanwhile, the Canucks have been buoyed by hot starts from Pettersson and Horvat—along with above-average play from the goaltending—and that’s no doubt earned them a few more points than they might rightly deserve. In other words, don’t put your money on the Canucks making the playoffs this season quite yet—they’re still more likely to end up competing in the Jack Hughes lottery than competing for the Stanley Cup in 2019.