How the Canucks can replace Jacob Markstrom and Chris Tanev if they leave in free agency
By Bill Huan
3 years agoWith the Tampa Bay Lightning winning the Stanley Cup last week, the NHL is now in the midst of arguably its most uncertain offseason in history.
The league’s decision to implement a flat salary cap has caused major ramifications for every team, and the Vancouver Canucks are no exception. As it currently stands, Vancouver has a bit over $17 million in cap space to sign eight players, including UFAs Jacob Markstrom, Tyler Toffoli and Chris Tanev.
Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that the team will be able to bring back all three players. Markstrom is undoubtedly the Canucks’ main priority, but negotiations between the two sides seem to have hit an impasse:
Given his age, recent injury history and Thatcher Demko’s presence, it seems more and more likely that he will test the open market and sign elsewhere. Markstrom’s potential departure will no doubt hurt the team in the short term, but it might prove to be a blessing in disguise if Demko can keep ascending while being a younger and cheaper option.
In Tanev’s case, Rob Rossi and Josh Yohe of The Athletic have reported that the Penguins might offer him a five-year, $25 million extension. Even though he’s been a warrior for the Canucks, the team would be wise to let him go if that’s his market value; Tanev is now on the wrong side of 30 and has an injury history that could rival Sami Salo’s, which is why a contract of that magnitude could prove to be catastrophic for Vancouver.
In the end, it seems like Toffoli is the likeliest to sign out of the Canucks’ “Big Three” UFAs, and there have already been rumblings about the type of contract that he’ll be looking for:
Personally, I’m skeptical that he would sign for anything less than $5 million, but it’s still a good sign that Toffoli seems to be willing to sign a team-friendly deal with reasonable term. He found instant chemistry alongside Elias Pettersson and could also comfortably play on the second line beside Bo Horvat and former linemate Tanner Pearson.
The team will undoubtedly need to find ways of patching up their goaltending and blueline if Toffoli is the only big-name free agent the Canucks re-sign. Thankfully, there are many intriguing options available for both positions, which is what we’ll be analyzing today.
Who Can Replace Markstrom and Tanev?
If Markstrom does indeed walk, there will still be plenty of free agent goalies who could adequately serve as a 1B option behind Demko. Veterans such as Corey Crawford, Anton Khudobin, Thomas Greiss and Cam Talbot are all capable of sharing the workload in net. However, we need to keep in mind that the Canucks are one of the most permissive defensive teams in the league, which is why they need to pursue a goalie who has shown the ability to stop a high volume of danger chances against.
Out of those four netminders, only Crawford and Khudobin had a positive goals saved expected number during the past season, which is why the Canucks should steer clear of the latter two goalies. Unfortunately, both Crawford and Khudobin are in their mid-30s and are most likely prioritizing term for their next contracts that might expire during their late-30s. I believe that they can still be solid goalies for the first year of two of their deals, but the results could get murky once they enter their age 36 seasons and beyond.
For context, Craig Anderson, Henrik Lundqvist and Pekka Rinne were all still quality starting netminders during their age 35 seasons, but declined rapidly in the years after. Lundqvist’s save percentage dipped below 0.910% for the first time in his career once he turned 36 while Andersen’s fell from 0.926% to an alarming 0.898% at the same age. Rinne held out a bit longer and only declined this past season at 37, but his number plummeted to sub 0.895% only two years after winning the Vezina.
Crawford and Khudobin are currently 35 and 34, respectively, so I’d be hesitant to sign them to multi-year deals given the recent history of goalies declining at similar ages.
This is why I believe the best way of replacing Markstrom is by trading for a goalie who’s younger and is signed to a deal that declines in a year. The Canucks will have the flexibility to either re-sign them next summer if they prove to be a good fit with the team or allow the player to walk if a prospect like Michael DiPietro is ready to backup Demko.
There are two goalies who check both of these boxes: James Reimer and Antti Raanta. They both registered a positive goals saved above expected number as well during the past season, which makes them an even better fit for Vancouver. However, it seems unlikely that the Hurricanes will move Reimer since he arguably outplayed Mrazek this year and the latter will be a free agent next summer too.
This leaves Raanta as the lone target for the Canucks, and it seems plausible that the Coyotes will try and move him if there are no takers for Darcy Kuemper. Arizona is also looking to cut costs, and Raanta is owed $4 million in salary next year, which gives them another incentive to facilitate a trade.
Acquiring Raanta definitely comes with risks, especially given his lengthy injury history, but he does seem like the best and most realistic option to back up Demko if Markstrom leaves. Raanta owns a career save percentage of 0.920% and saved 5.64 goals above expected during the past season, which ranked 10th in the league among goalies who played more than 20 games.
Now comes the fun part. What could a potential Raanta trade look like? For starters, Jake Virtanen would likely be involved since it seems inevitable that the winger will be dealt sometime soon. Virtanen is most likely only worth a mid-round pick at this point due to his impending arbitration case, but this is probably still more than Raanta given the latter’s large cap hit ($4.25 million). Vancouver would be wise to send an inefficient contract like Jordie Benn to Arizona as well while asking them to retain a small portion of Raanta’s contract.
Ultimately, the trade could be something similar to Virtanen and Benn for Raanta (10%) retained. Arizona would be saving roughly $2 million in salary (not including Virtanen’s next contract) since Benn is only owed $1.6 million next season while injecting some youth into a team that seems headed towards a rebuild.
With the goaltending figured out, it’s now time to focus on the defence. The Canucks will need to find a right-handed blueliner who can play alongside Quinn Hughes, and I can think of no one better than Dylan Demelo.
Demelo’s name has been brought up countless times during the past few months by both fans and media alike, and with good reason. He has produced strong play-driving numbers when paired with elite defenders such as Josh Morrisey and Thomas Chabot and is also capable of holding his own even in the absence of a star defenseman.
You can read more about Demelo’s play in my previous article, but the conclusion I reached is that he would actually be an upgrade over Tanev and allow Hughes more freedom to roam while costing significantly less than what Tanev might demand; Demelo could be signed for around $3 million per season for 3-4 years, which could prove to be a bargain given his abilities.
How Will the Overall Roster Look?
Now that we’ve found replacements for Tanev and Markstrom, it’s time to fill out the rest of the roster while fitting the pieces under the cap. In order to do that, the Canucks will need to move out another undesirable contract, and Brandon Sutter seems to be the most realistic. A buyout might be the easiest move, but it makes more sense to retain some of his cap hit and trade him instead since this will allow the team to save more cap space while also receiving a draft pick in return.
If Vancouver retains 50% of Sutter’s cap hit, that would mean that an opposing team would incur less than $2.2 million of cap space, which is more than reasonable for a player of Sutter’s calibre. The Canucks would likely be able to receive a mid-late round pick in return, which is crucial since they don’t have a first or second-round pick in this year’s draft.
With Benn and Sutter (50% retained) off the books, the Canucks would then have just under $21.3 million in cap space to work with. If the team were to sign Demelo for $3 million and acquire Raanta (10% retained) from Arizona, that would leave Vancouver with $14.5 million left to bring back all of their other pending free agents:
Tyler Toffoli: $5 million
Troy Stecher: $2.35 million
Gaudette: $1.65 million
Leivo: $1.5 million
Motte: $1.1 million
Macewen: $1 million
Oscar Fantenberg: $1 million
Olli Juolevi: $863,333
Those signings bring the Canucks right up against the cap, and their opening night roster might look something like this:
To conclude, the Canucks can trade for Raanta and sign Demelo to replace Markstrom and Tanev, respectively. Vancouver will also need to move Sutter, but that shouldn’t be too hard if the team retains half of his cap hit. With Markstrom gone, the Canucks might take a step back next season, but it might ultimately prove to be a blessing in disguise since the team will have more cap space to use on improving their defence and re-signing both Pettersson and Hughes. With many inefficient contracts coming off the books next summer, Vancouver will be able to surround its dynamic nucleus with key supporting pieces and build a contender for years to come.
All stats and contracts from Evolving-Hockey and PuckPedia.
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