The Case for Jake Virtanen on Horvat’s Wing

Bo’s success on the power play this week has helped him break out offensively, but he’s still struggling to produce at 5-on-5. Technically, Horvat scored his goal against St. Louis at even strength but the play that set up the goal came thanks to Vancouver’s two-man advantage. Excluding this goal, at 5-on-5 Bo Horvat has one assist and a score-adjusted xGF% of 42.16 while seeing the highest offensive zone start % of his career. (Expected-goals aims to measure a shot’s likelihood of scoring. xGF% is the calculation of xGF/(xGF+xGA). Excuse the math.) Yes, Horvat has been able to swing shot share in his favour with a score-adjusted 52.94 CF%, but is just 7th among Canucks forwards for xGF/60. At 5-on-5 play, Horvat and his linemates are surrendering more quality scoring chances than they are creating.

To start, it should be noted that Horvat’s 7.55 on-ice shooting % is at an all-time low and is likely to regress back towards his career average of 8.6% as the season progresses. Even from just an eye-test standpoint, there are so many positives to his 5-on-5 game, specifically his ability to push the play up the ice and into the offensive zone, that I find it hard to believe these low percentages will continue for any length of time. I have been able to track four Canucks games out of nine so far this season and Bo Horvat is one of the team’s best forwards in this regard.

It begins in the defensive zone with Horvat making responsible decisions to move the puck. He makes smart plays and relies on his skating ability to advance the puck safely into the neutral zone. He ranks third for forwards in controlled exits per 60 and his 13.04 failed exit % is the best on the team.

In the clip above, Horvat does a great job to defend Andreas Athanasiou and with the help of Jordie Benn, negates the attack. Horvat supports Benn in the corner and is able to safely chip the puck to Jake Virtanen for a clean breakout.

His strong puck transporting skills translate through the neutral zone and into the offensive end as he is one of the most efficient forwards at gaining the zone with control. He is third on the team in controlled zone entries per 60 and is highly successful per attempt.

Again, this play starts with good puck support from Horvat who curls as a breakout option for Chris Tanev. With room to work with, he is able to gain the zone and chip the puck past the defender drawing an interference penalty in the process.

With his strong two-way play driving, one would think that Horvat is due to score more at even strength. So what gives? Is it just a cold start or is there something else affecting his expected goal share? Below is a graph showing Bo Horvat’s most common wingers this season and how they have fared together as pairs.

Horvat’s most successful stretch at 5-on-5 came during his limited stint with JT Miller, but that pairing has been put on the shelf due to Miller’s success on the top line. Horvat’s two most common linemates have been Tanner Pearson and Josh Leivo, two forwards that the Canucks picked up via trade last season, in part, to find a consistent winger for Horvat. The two have played fine with Horvat in different combinations and as a trio and looked good against Philadelphia creating many rush chances. In that game the line combined for a team-leading 5 rush shots.

In both clips here the line does a fantastic job in the neutral zone to advance the play under pressure and attack the zone with speed. In the second clip, Leivo has a puck go over his stick that would have otherwise been a grade-A scoring chance.

Leivo and Horvat are an interesting pairing. They’re controlling the expected goal share at evens, indicating that the offense should come eventually; but there doesn’t seem to be a ton of chemistry between the two, as demonstrated above. It is still very early in the season, but Travis Green appears to be experimenting with different wingers on the Horvat line.

In the most recent game against Detroit, Travis Green opted for a faster look on Horvat’s right-wing with Jake Virtanen over Leivo. The move paid off, as Virtanen scored his first goal of the season and he almost had another redirecting a Horvat pass off the post.

The underlying numbers suggest that this combination may not be a great fit, with Virtanen and Horvat controlling only 34.11% of the expected goals and 47.9% of the shots in 31 minutes of action. However, that doesn’t mean the line can’t be effective over a larger sample size.

Bo Horvat and Tanner Pearson as a combination heavily rely on shots off the rush to create offence. They are currently first and second among Canucks players in rush shots/60 and are fifth and seventh in rush passes. Ideally, having someone who is adept at distributing the puck on the rush as the third winger would be the obvious choice to pair with the two and that will likely be Antoine Roussel once he comes back. In the meantime, there is a case to be made for Jake Virtanen.

While it isn’t a staggering difference between the two, Virtanen does pass and shoot on the rush more frequently than Leivo. Virtanen has also looked very good in spurts attacking gaps in the defence to free himself for good chances.

Virtanen is noticeably more confident attacking on the rush this year when using his speed in tandem with a sense of anticipation that has been lacking in the past. We can see an example of his improved instincts below. He recognizes space between the two defenders and turns on the jets while having his head up and stick on the ice ready for a pass. (Great touch by Tim Schaller, too.)

On a line with Pearson and Horvat, Virtanen made a great centering feed to Horvat on the rush after showing good puck support for Pearson.  Watch the route he takes, he goes to an open pocket of middle ice instead of along the boards and doesn’t just glide there but gives an extra push. This is something Virtanen has not shown in the past.

 

Perhaps the best example of Virtanen’s newfound confidence in his ability to read and jump up in the attack came a shift after his first goal of the season. Watch how before Horvat even has time to control the puck Virtanen knows what he wants to do. He knows he has his man beat and he will have an open lane to the net. He points with his stick towards the goal and slaps his stick to communicate with Horvat that he is going to be open.

 

 

Where Horvat and Pearson will also see Virtanen’s impact is in the right-wingers newly developed patience in the neutral zone.

He has been an effective passer in transition and is looking more poised with the puck. Another boon to a strong transition line.

Jake is by no means the solution to all of the second line’s even-strength scoring woes. He worsens Horvat’s expected goal and shot share, and still struggles with consistency. However, there have been enough bright spots early on to suggest he’s earned an extended look on Horvat’s line. The areas of Jake’s game that need improving-consistency, anticipation, drive- are all areas where Horvat excels. What better way to hone those skills than to play with someone who can lead by example? And if Horvat can see a boost in his even strength offence by playing with another forward who can produce off the rush, it could turn out to be good arrangement for both players.