From The Community: CanucksArmy 2018 Shooting Percentage Rebounds and Comedowns

CanucksArmy has always looked for new ways to provide interesting and new content from a variety of writers. We all started somewhere and sometimes we just needed a break to get into the world and then go from there.

Given that, I wanted to start a series called “From The Community” that allows content creators an avenue to write out an article and have it posted on CanucksArmy. They may be from Reddit, Twitter, the comment section, or even somewhere like youtube.

Some may want to do a one time, some may want to hone their craft, and others may want to work towards being a regular writer here (or possibly somewhere else).

Postive and constructive criticism is welcome. But keep in mind that these writers are taking a leap of faith and should be treated with the utmost respect and positivity. The same can be said about the series – if there is enough positive feedback (and people reaching out), we can continue to keep it going and thus allow people a chance to keep contributing to the series or be added as a full contributor to the site.

I had a couple of really interesting people reach out to me over the last few weeks with hopes of joining CanucksArmy on a regular basis and one of which was /u/hockeytalkie from the Canucks subreddit. So without further ado, here is a little background about him:

His post talking about some rebounders and fallers in terms of shooting percentage to keep an eye on for the 2018-19 season is below.

Using a player’s shooting percentage to predict their future production might sound like advanced stats wizardry, but it’s actually one of the easiest analytical concepts to break down.

Statistically speaking, NHL players develop an average shooting percentage over their careers,and tend to stay relatively close to that average in any given season. On average, NHL forwards score on 10-11% of their shots and NHL defenseman score on 5-6%. In 2017/18, those numbers were 9.7% and 4.8%, respectively. Of course, the best snipers will regularly exceed those numbers—and those with the stoniest of hands will regularly fall short—but most fall within those bounds, and the longer a player stays in the league the more likely they are to approach the average.

Whatever a player’s career shooting percentage is, one can assume that most of their season totals will end up within a percentage point of that average and that any outliers can be taken as just that—outliers. If a player’s shooting percentage has a serious deviation up or down for a single season it will likely have an impact on their goal scoring, and one can reasonably predict that their shooting percentage will return to something closer to their average the next season and their production will follow suit. In other words, whether or not a player deviated largely from their career shooting percentage in an anomalous season can point to the difference between an individual truly breaking out—or declining—and a player who is just getting lucky—or unlucky—for a year.

Obviously, it’s not a perfect predictor, and sometimes a player’s average shooting percentage will suddenly increase or decrease unexpectedly and permanently, but the formula holds true for the majority of players. Sportsnet tracked the phenomenon last year, and the results speak for themselves.

With that out of the way, it’s time to take a look at which Vancouver Canucks saw major deviations from their career average shooting percentage in 2017/18—and, subsequently, which Canucks could be down for a big rebound or comedown in 2018/19.

Fans who found themselves less-than-pleased with Jim Benning’s recent UFA signings may soon receive some sweet statistical relief, with a number of lagging veterans poised for comeback seasons.

Stating that Loui Eriksson has been a disappointment in Vancouver is putting it mildly. His production hasn’t even approached fair value for his enormous UFA contract, but a more specific stat may be the culprit—his shooting percentage. Over his career, Eriksson has averaged a more-than-respectable 13.2%, but his two seasons with the Canucks have seen Eriksson plummet to 8.3% and 9.9%. This leaves two possibilities: either the 33 year old had his ability to score goals immediately decline upon joining the Canucks, or he’s experienced two relatively unlucky seasons and is due for a resurgence in 2018/19. With three years remaining on his contract, Vancouver fans are certainly hoping for the latter.

Sam Gagner was coming off a career season when he joined the Vancouver Canucks, and many accurately depicted that he was due for a downtick in production for 2017/18. However, his shooting percentage in that season of personal bests—10.1% in 2016/17—was a lot closer to his career average of 9.4% than the abysmal percentage he recorded for the Canucks: a paltry 6.1%. That score puts Gagner significantly below both his own average and the average shooting percentage of an NHL forward, so it stands to reason that a rebound of some sort is coming if Gagner can maintain his place in the lineup.

Many fans and pundits were upset with the UFA deal handed to Antoine Roussel, who was coming off his worst season since his rookie year. Roussel put up just five goals and 12 points for Dallas in 2017/18, but that was accompanied by a major downturn in his shooting percentage. In his six NHL seasons, Roussel has averaged a percentage of 11.6%, but last year that dropped to just 5.9%. At just 28 years old, the odds are that Roussel will return to scoring in double-digits when he joins the Canucks, and that will go a long way toward winning over the skeptics in the fanbase.

Markus Granlund had a career year in 2016/17, notching 19 goals in 69 games and solidifying himself as an NHL regular. This past season, however, he regressed to just eight goals in 53 games, and once again, the culprit appears to be shooting percentage—15.6% in 2016/17 and 8.6% in 2017/18. Both numbers actually represent deviations from the norm, and it seems that Granlund may have experienced a lucky season followed by an unlucky—and injury-plagued—one. Going forward, one would expect Granlund to start putting up something closer to his career average of 12.5%–and return to double-digit goal totals—if he can stay healthy.

The good news, depending on how you look at it, is that most Canucks had average or bad seasons in 2017/18, which means that most don’t have to worry about comedown years. That being said, there were a couple players whose healthy shooting percentages should raise a bit of suspicion moving forward.

Sven Baertschi’s injury-plagued season made it difficult to notice just how good of an offensive year he had—putting up 14 goals and 29 points in just 53 games. It was the highest points-per-game Baertschi has notched since his famous three goals in five games debut for the Flames, but the increased scoring may not last. He shot 2.4% above his career average of 14.7% in 2017/18, which suggests that he got a bit lucky. The loss of the Sedins will mean more opportunity in the top-six this season, but Baertschi’s production may not live up to the increased expectations.

Discussing the career shooting percentage of Brock Boeser is a bit silly, as he’s only played 71 games to date. During that period, however, Boeser has scored on a ridiculous 16% of his shots—numbers that are amazing not just for a rookie, but for an NHL forward in general. The vast majority of players can’t sustain numbers a percentage like that for any length of time, including Alex Ovechkin and his average of 12.5% over his first five seasons. It’s at least conceivable that Boeser will maintain this sort of conversion rate going forward, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all if his shooting percentage—and goal-scoring rate—dipped a bit in his sophomore season.

On the other hand, if Boeser is able to maintain a percentage around 16%, it would prove he definitively belongs in the upper echelon of NHL snipers, and that’s certainly not an undesirable outcome. It’s just not a very likely one. It’s unfortunate, but it seems that Matt Murray may have actually been on to something abotu Boeser being lucky.

Like Boeser, Darren Archibald hasn’t had much of a career upon which to base a career average. Unlike Boeser, Archibald is 28 years old—which means he’s even less likely to maintain a shooting percentage so far above the league average. In 43 career games, he has cashed in on 12.8% of his shots, and that shot up to 14.3% in 2017/18 as he scored at a near 30-point pace. Archibald might not even make the team next year, but if he does, no one should expect him to keep scoring at that rate.