Does Jannik Hansen Have Top-Six Ability?
By Jeff Angus
10 years ago
Jannik Hansen – Wikimedia Commons
286. That is the number of players who were selected ahead of Jannik Hansen at the 2004 NHL Draft, back when the draft was nine rounds long. Hansen quickly turned out to be quite the find by the Canucks scouts, adapting seamlessly to the North American game in the WHL with Portland in 2005-06.
Hansen went on to have a very good season as a 21-year-old in the AHL, recording 21 goals and 43 points with Manitoba in only 50 games. He would go on to play a few more AHL games over the next couple of years, but by 2008 he had established himself as a full time NHL player.
And he has only continued to get better year after year.
Hansen started off as an energy winger on Vancouver’s fourth line. His best asset was (and still is) his speed and skating, but back then he wasn’t nearly as strong – on or off the puck – as he is now. His speed was always an attribute, and he showed some flashes of puck skill and vision, but for the most part Hansen went out and skated hard for 11 or 12 minutes a night.
As Hansen added muscle to his frame and confidence to his game, his ice time under Alain Vigneault increased. He has missed only one game over the past three seasons (due to the birth of twins). Hansen had 16 goals and 39 points in 2011-12, and he recorded 10 goals and 27 points this past season in 47 games. His career shooting rate is 10.4%, and during his career season back in 2011-12 he scored on 11.7% of his shots. The fact that he scored 16 goals while shooting at a similar rate to his career mark bodes well for his chances of doing it again (all else being equal).
We all know how Vigneault liked to utilize an offensive zone start strategy that helped the production of his top six forwards and hurt the production of his bottom six forwards. Hansen played primarily a bottom six role with the odd opportunity on a scoring line.
Corsi Rel QoC, as a quick refresher, is a measure of quality of opposition. It isn’t a perfect measure, but it does do a good job of telling us if a player is going up against top lines or third and fourth offensive units. It tells us who the coaches trust against the good players. Over the last three seasons, Hansen’s Corsi Rel QoC team ranks have been sixth, third, and fourth, respectively.
Even if you aren’t a believer in advanced stats, this shouldn’t surprise you. Hansen is one of the better defensive forwards on the team.
And this past season was the first time that Hansen saw over 50% of his shifts start off in the offensive zone (and this chart makes his 16-goal campaign in 2011-12 even more impressive). He was buried defensively in both 2010-11 and 2011-12.
Hockey Abstract’s Rob Vollman has put together historical player comparable charts, and here is a look at Hansen’s (with a more detailed explanation coming):
25 | Jannik Hansen | 82 | 16 | 23 | |||||||
Age | Year | Historical Match | GP | G | A | GP | G | A | PTS | Sim | |
25 | 2003 | Matt Cooke | 53 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 82 | 17.6 | 19.3 | 37.0 | 2.7 | |
25 | 1987 | Gaetan Duchesne | 80 | 17.2 | 17.0 | 82 | 17.6 | 17.4 | 35.1 | 2.8 | |
27 | 2007 | Chris Kelly | 75 | 10.8 | 18.4 | 82 | 11.8 | 20.1 | 31.9 | 3.1 | |
25 | 1989 | Bob Errey | 78 | 14.4 | 14.0 | 82 | 15.1 | 14.7 | 29.9 | 3.2 | |
26 | 1986 | Jim Peplinski | 80 | 13.0 | 24.0 | 82 | 13.3 | 24.6 | 37.9 | 3.2 | |
25 | 2007 | Tomas Plekanec | 81 | 28.4 | 38.7 | 82 | 28.8 | 39.2 | 67.9 | 3.3 | |
24 | 1984 | Guy Carbonneau | 79 | 15.7 | 23.9 | 82 | 16.3 | 24.8 | 41.1 | 3.4 | |
27 | 2011 | Kyle Brodziak | 82 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 82 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 44.0 | 3.4 | |
28 | 1991 | Kelly Miller | 78 | 10.7 | 29.6 | 82 | 11.2 | 31.1 | 42.4 | 3.5 | |
28 | 1988 | Jim Peplinski | 79 | 9.2 | 18.2 | 82 | 9.5 | 18.9 | 28.4 | 3.5 | |
Average | 16.3 | 23.2 | 39.6 |
Here is some more information on the methodology behind the charts, from Vollman himself (and you can download them here):
Throughout the 2011-12 season the system was further refined with the assistance of several people, most notably Neil Greenberg, and among other improvements, it most notably includes only players from the post-expansion era (1967), and looks at shots, power play scoring and GVT in addition to the goals and assists it did previously. It is therefore informally known as Snepsts67.The method is reasonably simple: it searches post-expansion NHL history for players of a similar position and age whose era-adjusted statistics most closely match the target player, both for the current season, preceding season and previous career totals, in a 4:2:1 ratio.The ten most similar players are used to set low-water, high-water and average scoring expectations for today’s players, and also to initiate interesting conversations about a player’s role and who he should be used. Attached is a simple spreadsheet with this data for every NHL player who played at least a single game in each of the preceding two seasons.
The average of Hansen’s 10 comparables was a 16-goal, 40-point season. He scored 10 goals and had 27 points in 47 games. Over 82 games, that prorates to 17 goals and 47 points. Tomas Plekanec emerged as a top-six forward at the age of 25 after coming off of a similar season (this is just one example).
Hansen also led the Canucks in even strength points per 60 minutes in 2013 (from Hockey Analysis):
He was fifth on the team in P/60 in 2011-12, and ninth in 2010-11. Production per 60 minutes doesn’t provide the whole picture on its own, but with context it can be very useful. For the most part, more ice time equals more production for forwards (the Tyler Bozak effect, if you will). This isn’t always the case, but in general it is a reasonable assumption to make.
Assuming Hansen’s ice time was bumped up a minure or two each night, it wouldn’t be crazy to expect his production to increase accordingly, even if he doesn’t actually play or perform any better in his role.
Good teams have good players on the third and fourth lines. And moving Hansen up to line two may create a hole on line three. The Canucks may be better off going with two "second/third" lines anyway, as they have a lot of solid two-way wingers who can both check and score.
Hansen has proven he can produce in a defensive role against tough competition, and he brings a lot of elements you want out of a third line winger. What else can you ask for from a top-six forward?
Previously from Jeff (@anguscertified):
- An Early Look at Opening Night: Defensemen and Forwards
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