Chins Up! Picking Fifth Ain’t So Bad

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The date was April 30, 2016 – a Saturday. Like many Canuck fans, I was huddled around the television watching as Bill Daly unveiled, in reverse, the order of the 2016 NHL draft. When it had become obvious the Canucks had dropped from the top three to their most likely pre-lottery position of fifth, I immediately moved to console myself with the knowledge that, historically, fifth overall has actually been a pretty decent position from which to select. If the Canucks had moved up to fifth from a lower position, instead of two spots down, I’m certain I would have been elated rather than disappointed.

Over the last several decades, the fifth overall selection has run the gamut from busts to Hall of Famers – which, come to think of it, describes essentially every top-five pick. First overall picks can either be Mario Lemieux or Patrik Stefan. Second overall picks either Evgeni Malkin or Dave Chyzowski. A third overall pick might get you Jonathan Toews of Neil Brady. You get the point. While the odds of hitting a home run increase with a higher pick, the truth of the matter is that no pick is ever guaranteed to be successful. There might be a drop off after the consensus top three picks this year, but both Matthew Tkachuk and Pierre Luc-Dubois project to be valuable – and possibly elite – pieces for whichever team selects them. And so, in honour of the Canucks holding the fifth overall pick in this year’s draft, let’s take some time to look back at five hits and five misses from that spot, shall we?

What they said about him then: Martyniuk and future Hall of Famer Bobby Clarke backstopped the hometown Flin Flon Bombers to back-to-back Western Canada Hockey League championships in 1969 and 1970. Labeled a “Can’t Miss Kid” and one of the best goaltending prospects by none other than coaching legend Scotty Bowman, Martyniuk was believed to have all the tools to become an all-star goaltender.

What they say about him now: The “Can’t Miss Kid” missed. Martyniuk fell out of favour early with Canadiens coach Claude Ruel and never played a game in the NHL. It probably didn’t help matters that he was situated behind both Ken Dryden and Rogie Vachon on the team’s goaltending depth chart. The Hockey News eventually named him the biggest draft bust of all-time. Ouch.

What they said about him then: Ilya Kovalchuk, another Russian (who went first overall in that year’s draft), called Chistov an artist who “paints a picture on the ice that nobody can erase,” (I guess that’s a good thing?). A diminutive winger, Chistov had a nose for the net. “If Chistov were bigger,” wrote Dave Shoalts of the Globe and Mail, “He would be in the top three. He is a great skater who can make his moves with the puck at top speed. He has a nose for the net and is a constant threat to score.” Some believed that, if it weren’t for his size, Chistov would challenge Kovalchuk for number one.

What they said about him then: Vaive, who had played in the WHA for the Birmingham Bulls in 1978-79, was described as “a rugged forward who … has impressed scouts with his truculent on-ice deportment.” Vaive was also known as a goal-scorer from his days in Sherbrooke of the QMJHL, where had had notched 127 goals in 136 games over two seasons.

What they said about him then: Jagr was considered by many scouts as the best player available prior to the 1990 draft, but it was widely assumed he would stay in his native Czechoslovakia for at least another season. Concerns about players from Eastern Europe were still pervasive in the early 1990s. “[Jagr] has been touted as the most talented player available. But the standard doubts about Eastern European players move him down in the draft,” wrote the Globe and Mail. Mike Beamish of the Vancouver Sun wrote that Jagr might be “the best of the bunch.”

What they say about him now: He was the best, give or take a Martin Brodeur. And he’s still playing! There is a very real chance that Jagr may finish his career with over 2000 points – which would make him only the second player in NHL history to reach that mark. Had he not played through three lockouts and three seasons with Omsk Avangard of the KHL, he would probably be there already. 

What they said about him then: Price, of the WHL’s Tri-City Americans, was the top-rated goalie prospect heading into the 2005 draft. Even so, his selection at number five raised a few eyebrows. “I wasn’t really expecting to go this high,” Price joked at the time, “but I’ll take it.” Canadiens GM Bob Gainey believed that Price had single-handedly propped up a weak Tri-City team with his stellar play. “He’s helped his team win games they shouldn’t have,” he said. With Price maintaining a .920 save percentage, Gainey was probably right.

What they said about him then: Kessel began the 2005-06 season as the likely first overall selection in the 2006 draft. As the season wore on, his ranking slipped somewhat – but no one denied his high-end offensive ability. “He has the fastest feet in this draft and the skills to score breathtaking goals as well as find ways to set them up,” wrote The Province. He was considered the best pure scorer in the draft and its most exciting talent.