CanucksArmy Monday Mailbag: November 20th – Part Deux

I’ve had one hell of a week, so you’ll have to forgive me for taking my time to get to the Part Deux of the Monday Mailbag. Without any further adieu, let’s get to it.

I’d lean on some of the classics for evaluating defensive play. Corsi percentage can work in a pinch, but I prefer Fenwick because it leaves out blocked shots. If I want to isolate defensive impact (different from defensive value), I’ll look exclusively at a player’s Fenwick or Corsi against. If the sample is large enough, I’ll look at the rate goals occur against with that player on the ice, but only as a supplementary part of my analysis.

One of my favourite tools from back in the day (last season) was Fenwick against Rel. TM per 60 to evaluate how a player was performing defensively. Essentially, that metric aggregates a player’s impact on all his linemate’s ability to suppress unblock shot attempts per hour. It’s a good way to control for team or linemate effects.

I don’t see that being an issue, no.

Forcing a player to develop defensively isn’t going to harm their development, and if it does, that doesn’t bode well for that player. If you’re going to play in even a semi-regular role in the NHL, you have to be able to hold your head above water at the very least. That’s not an unreasonable expectation.

It doesn’t mean throwing the body or committing to the defensive zone or sacrificing offence to do it. It can be as simple as playing with as much urgency in the neutral zone when the opposition has the puck as your own team or closing gaps in the offensive zone to create pressure that leads to turnovers. Jake Virtanen, for example, is an incredibly average to below average player in the defensive zone but adds above average defensive value.

I wouldn’t ever force defensive responsibility on a player, but I’d certainly prioritize teaching him defensive habits in the neutral and offensive zone that will lead to creating positive defensive value.

I say that with the added caveat that I agree with your second point. I don’t want a player on my team who can’t add any value offensively.

Think about Chris Tanev, who’s a non-factor in the offensive zone, but adds offensive value for other reasons.

I think a lot of Virtanen’s ice-time discrepancies are related to the line he plays on, i.e. with the Sedin twins. That, and the fact that Virtanen doesn’t play special teams.

I don’t dislike the idea, but I’d also like to see Virtanen get a shot in limited minutes on the penalty kill.

Canucks head coach Travis Green has been as consistent with his message and coaching as you could ever expect an NHL head coach to be.

I do, and if you’re a Canucks fan, that should be a terrifying notion, especially if Canucks general manager Jim Benning doesn’t have a contract extension by that time. If the Canucks are even remotely close to a playoff spot and Benning doesn’t have a contract extension, I’ll be surprised if he makes any seller’s moves.

The way Markus Granlund has played means the Canucks won’t have to worry about him cashing in this off-season. It’s early, but Granlund’s not had a good a season. I wouldn’t trade Granlund. The Canucks wouldn’t get much in return, and I think he’s a genuinely useful bottom-six player.

Why not both?

I’m a fan of Virtanen’s work this season, but he’s not better than half the Canucks roster. I agree with the sentiment that Green is underusing him though.

Check back in a couple of months for CanucksArmy draft coverage.

I doubt Nikita Tryamkin will ever return to the Canucks, but that’s based on a hunch; I don’t have any intel or sources close to the situation. Dmitry Zhukenov’s had a disappointing, up-and-down start to his KHL career. Who knows, maybe Zhukenov wants to come back to North America? Zhukenov was hitting his stride before he left for the K.

As for Lukas Jasek, his development hasn’t warranted an entry-level contract in my estimation. One thing the Canucks could do is offer Jasek an amateur or professional tryout for the Utica Comets and go from there. That wouldn’t be the worst idea.

Chris Tanev should be able to get the Canucks a top prospect, a first-round pick and a roster player. If I were to hazard a guess, I’d expect the Canucks to get two of those three items if they tried to trade Tanev though.

I’d expect the Ottawa Senators, Toronto Maple Leafs, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers to have interest.

Keystone Lager.

Green’s already benched Loui Eriksson this season (not a healthy scratch, but not that far off), so why not Brandon Sutter? Coaches do things that irritate their general managers all the time, but that’s just part of the working relationship they share. I doubt Benning would get upset, within reason.

It wouldn’t be that unreasonable to think that, no.

The New Jersey Devils have mostly played Pavel Zacha on the wing, as far as I can tell, so I don’t see how Nico Hischier or Michael McLeod make a big difference. If Zacha’s available, the Canucks shouldn’t break the bank to make it happen. I’m just not that big a fan of Zacha’s game.

It’s hard to say what’s a fair price for Zacha. It wasn’t that long ago that the Devils used the sixth overall pick to draft him, so you’d have to expect them to want a lot in return.

If I was the Canucks, I’d hone in on Sam Bennett and Sam Reinhart.

Too many for CanucksArmy’s tastes.

I’d put Elias Pettersson in the top three right now. Not sure where exactly, but he’s in that range.

The Canucks MVP is Brock Boeser. The Canucks best free agent signing is Thomas Vanek. The Canucks biggest disappointment is a toss-up between Sam Gagner and Markus Granlund.

It would be a dream come true to work for an NHL organization in any capacity. I’d love to learn the scout’s trade. I’ve been around hockey since I was about four and have a pretty good eye for the game, I think, but there are so many skills I could learn still. I’ve been lucky to have some great friends and mentors in the prospect analysis community, too. It’s a great fraternity, and I’d love to work my way into it.

I wouldn’t mind working in an office role, too. If that’s working in analytics, then so be it, though I’ve so, so much to learn in that realm.

Elias Pettersson.

The exact same way I felt about the Thomas Vanek signing at the time. He’s an imperfect player with a very one-dimensional skill set, who can still add value to the Canucks lineup. His real value will come at the trade deadline, when the Canucks can trade him for an extra pick or a prospect, should they go that route.