CanucksArmy Monday Mailbag: December 11th

I’m thinking a Brendan Gaunce goal comes first. I mean, he has to score at some point, right?

This is a good question and one that I’ve pondered myself for the majority of the season. To the naked eye, the Canucks attack-centric system is producing the most entertaining hockey I’ve seen in this city for years. And entertainment being subjective and intangible, I tend to think that assessment holds some value, especially since it’s the widely held consensus about the Canucks brand of hockey this season.

I’m not sure how or why they’re compatible. I’d love to see some research done on this that integrated video and statistical analysis to explain the incongruity between what we’re observing with the Canucks and the data that suggests they should be the most boring team in hockey.

Full disclosure: I don’t think the Canucks should take anyone out of the lineup for Erik Gudbranson if the decision is based on what each defenceman can provide on the ice on a nightly basis.

If the Canucks have to take someone out of the lineup, I lean towards Michael Del Zotto.

I’ll answer this question two different ways.

Who I would place on Brock Boeser’s lineup when the Canucks are healthy: Nikolay Goldobin and Bo Horvat

Based on what the Canucks have available to them currently: Nikolay Goldobin and Sam Gagner.

I’m not entirely sure I agree with your assessment of the goalie landscape in the NHL. There’s a variety of different ways that NHL teams can configure their crease combos, and while a significant number fall into those categories, there are plenty that don’t.

I can’t say I see a developing trend in the league towards either of the options you’ve highlighted. It’s a mixed bag, really.

I guess it depends on the goalies in question. Usually, I tend to think goalie is the one position where you can cut corners cost-wise. I’d probably lean towards two guys in the $3-4-million range if I could.

Derrick Pouliot’s been arguably one of the Canucks best defencemen this season. I can’t say I saw that coming. Still, it’s a relatively small sample. Let’s not get too carried away. There have still been occasional moments of Pittsburgh Pouliot, and those are concerning. I’d say his ceiling is probably that of a second-pair defenceman.

I suspect part of that is team effects. The Kings under Darryl Sutter were a dominant puck possession team at five-on-five. This summer, they made clear that they were going to surrender some of their shot volume to try and generate more high-danger scoring chances. Perhaps Dowd’s game didn’t suit the new system that John Stevens had in place.

He’s playing slightly worse Corsi for quality of competition, but there’s been a fairly significant drop off in his Corsi for quality of teammate. Even so, I don’t think those are the factors that drop one’s numbers from near-elite shot suppression to replacement level player seemingly overnight.

Alternatively, maybe Dowd just isn’t an NHL player? It’s not that far-fetched a notion. Dowd’s first full season came as a 26-year-old. Players usually peak around 24 or 25. Maybe Dowd just had a flash in the pan, one-off season of significant defensive value?

With the precedent Canucks general manager Jim Benning set by signing Bo Horvat for $5.5-million annually, that doesn’t seem like that much of a stretch. Boeser will be operating in an eerily similar situation to Horvat, as a restricted free agent without arbitration. If Boeser remains similarly productive to the end of next season and the salary cap rises to $80-million mark, $7-million seems likely, even.

Perhaps it’s as simple as the Canucks being outmatched by a vastly more talented Calgary Flames team?

I’d be surprised if Dowd couldn’t pass through waivers unclaimed, so that seems a bit unrealistic.

Was that ever in doubt?

I wouldn’t be surprised if Benning made one such move.

nice.

I’d make that trade in a heartbeat. I’m assuming that’s for Erik Karlsson and not William, right? Have to be certain given everything at stake.

I don’t know if there’s a current Canuck who plays a similar style of hockey to what I played when I was in semi-competitive-ish leagues. I was a pest, and damn good at it, too. If you want a comparison from the Canucks of old, Max Lapierre fits. I wore the number 40 and even had the smile to boot!

If I had a goal song, it would probably be Red Opps by 21 Savage. I think the artistry is comparable to romantic era poets, like Percy Bysshe Shelley and the like. It’s just a different medium.

It’s hard to say since we haven’t heard what the Ottawa Senators asking price is. I wonder if there’s any team who can absorb the cost of admission with Karlsson and still field a competitive team with complimentary pieces around him. The cost will be huge, and it should be.

I have a hard time seeing Nikita Tryamkin make a return this season. He’s not even one year into the three-year contract he signed last off-season. That seems like a stretch.

I’m going to assume you’re a Canucks fan, which makes this one fairly easy to answer. It’s probably going to Matthew Tkachuk. Think about it. Tkachuk is going to be with the Flames for the foreseeable future, which means he’ll face the Canucks a lot.

You are not wrong. Cory Hergott’s been a great addition to CanucksArmy this season. I’m glad that the readers see it that way, too.

I doubt that the Aquilini’s have made a decision yet. When they do, we’ll know.

The biggest surprise is the Vegas Golden Knights. They played poor hockey through the first month-plus and won in spite of it. Since then, they’ve done a far better job of controlling the flow of shots at even strength, and they’re continuing to win hockey games. As they get healthier in the crease, that will make life easier, too.

The biggest disappointment is Markus Granlund. Pardon my myopia with this answer — I’m sure there are bigger disappointments across the league, but this is one I have to cover on an almost daily basis. I expected some form of regression from Granlund going into this season, but nothing this drastic. Hopefully, he can turn it around in a hurry for the Canucks.

It’s probably Nicklas Jensen. There were so many signs that he was going to be an NHL’er, and a quality one at that. I remember thinking he had all the right stuff when he’d played with the team at the end of the disastrous 2013-14 season. That he couldn’t carve out even a bottom-six role on the Canucks is, well, disappointing.

I don’t really consider myself an “analytics guy” to start, though I didn’t take offence or anything. It’s just that it’s a touch misleading. I’ve never been a math stud, and I consider my analytics skill relatively low compared to most of my peers in the field.

I’m more of a “use all the available information to make an informed opinion” guy, which does mean including qualitative analysis in my evaluations.

Back to the question, though, I’ve always had a soft spot for Mikkel Boedker’s game in spite of the underlying data suggesting that he’s significantly overrated — or was significantly overrated, anyway. Enough so that I didn’t think the San Jose Sharks erred by signing him to a deal that cost about $4-million annually. He’s been a healthy scratch since. Don’t trust your eyes.

I still think Olli Juolevi can be a top pairing defenceman.

I think Elias Pettersson has elite talent potential, certainly. I leave the generational tag alone unless it’s Connor McDavid, Erik Karlsson or Sidney Crosby. I’d rank him as the best prospect not currently in the NHL.

I’ve never been a big believer in Guillaume Brisebois. In terms of upside, I think he tops out as a third pairing defenceman. Based on what I’ve seen from him this season and in each since the Canucks drafted him, I find it unlikely he’s even an NHL’er though.

I’d try Sam Gagner out with Boeser before Granlund. Based on tonight, though, I’m going to write-in answer with Henrik Sedin.

I don’t know the specifics of Boeser’s contract as it pertains to a bonus exclusively for winning the Calder Trophy, but his maximum potential performance bonuses are about $850,000. I’d imagine that a Calder Trophy victory is accounted for therein.

I have no clue if the Canucks take Brady Tkachuk or not. I know they never had much interest in drafting his brother, for whatever that’s worth.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was in the NHL in his post-draft season. It’s hard to compare the two.

Thomas Vanek

I would trade Leon Draisaitl for Erik Karlsson straight up and send flowers to Pierre Dorion as soon as the NHL confirmed the trade. The other way around? Nope.