Canucks Army Year in Review: Ryan Miller

Despite ending the year with a 17-24-6 record, Ryan Miller had a very good season for the Canucks. He was regularly providing his team with above average goaltending that gave them a chance to win on more nights then not. If the Canucks were able to provide more goal support or better defensive play, Miller’s season would’ve been easier to quantify as a success.

Miller struggled at times during the 2014-15 season, but rebounded this past season as he got back to being more aggressive on the first shot. He had strayed away from this over the two previous seasons, however he clearly reverted back to that this year and saw results. There was some concerns about fatigue for the 35 year old goaltender and that fatigue appeared to make an impact , as he would show a dip in performance, but once he was given a rest, he would rebound and would return to form as an extremely effective net minder who was arguably a top 15 goalie in the NHL.

5v5 adjusted goals saved above average per 60 minutes. The stat determines how much better, or worse, a goalie has performed against the 5v5 location adjusted shots (high danger, medium danger, low danger) he has faced than if a goalie with NHL average save% in each danger zone had faced the same shots over a 60-minute timeframe. More on the statistic can be found here.

Miller was at his best when a greater proportionate share of his shots were coming from high danger areas (the blue). This makes sense for two reasons. Miller has historically been an above average HD Sv% goalie, and his aggressive style, like Jon Quick, allows him to meet shooters in the low slot and cut off angles on shots from the high slot. The caveat: it often puts him out of position for rebounds and other types of shots. If you watch the Canucks, you know that Miller often makes his life more difficult for himself and is forced to scramble to recover.

Overall he was consistently above average for long stretches of the season. He had a really great year, and a return to the form that made him a top end goalie earlier in his career.

Above Average Appearance %. This simply is the percentage of his appearances where he has performed above NHL average 5v5 adjGSAA/60 (better than 0). Miller was right at 50% AAA%, but he tended to perform quite a bit above average and rarely well below average. This is why he appears higher than Markstrom on the 5v5 adjGSAA/60 chart.

In the Jacob Markstrom year in review, I suggested that the Canucks are better served in the long term to play Markstrom more next season, and that still remains true. Ryan Miller is 35 years old and won’t factor into the long term plans of the organization, but if this past season is any indication, Miller still has something left to give and the Canucks would be wise to take advantage of that.

If properly managed, Miller will be able to get enough rest to maximize his hot play and at the same time limit or mitigate his cold streaks. 

There have been suggestions that the Canucks best course of action would be to move Miller this summer and let Markstrom run with it. Obviously there is some credence to that thought process as Markstrom needs to get as many minutes as possible, but the concern is that Markstrom may falter, lose confidence and thus the Canucks will be in the same place in the standings as this past season.

With that, I would suggest keeping Miller to start the year, to continue the mentorship of Markstrom, and as we can see above, Miller will still provide the organization with above average goaltending. As the season progresses, and if Markstrom proves that he can handle the workload, then the Canucks could looking at moving Miller to a contending team in need of a veteran back-up, similar to what the Sharks did with Reimer. (yes, Reimer is much younger, but is there as a ‘safety net’ in case Jones had struggled).

If that doesn’t happen, then letting Miller ride out the contract isn’t the end of the world, and if the Michigan native has another solid season, a one year extension at a lower cap hit may be a wise venture.

There is obviously too much variables and time to decide if that is the best course of action right now, but it wouldn’t be surprising given how well Miller had shown this past year.

Huge thanks to Nick Mercadante for his help with the ‘crunching numbers’ of this year in review. You can follow him on twitter here.