Canucks Army Prospect Profiles #15: Cole Cassels

He had a year where he was just trying to stay afloat. He gave us everything he had. We were very direct at our meetings at the end of the year because in the past, he didn’t commit as much off the ice as he should have.

– Travis Green

It was a tough year for Cole, without a doubt. We had him on a plan for the first three or four months, a workout priority over playing. His games revolved around his workouts. It was a tough summer for him, he had a tough year.

– Travis Green

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of this deployment chart is the handful of games Cassels played in Utica’s top six. To thicken the plot even further, these plum assignments typically came sporadically; not following a string of goals (there was no string of goals) or even a barrage of shots on net (there wasn’t much of that either). They seemed to appear out of nowhere and were perhaps designed to test Cassels’ progress offensively by placing him with good players. During these stints, he was flanked by finishers like Hunter Shinkaruk, Brendan Gaunce and Alex Grenier, rather than the grinders and energy players he typically found himself with in the bottom six. Sometimes these stints would last all game, other times they’d only last a period. Still other times he would rotate, coming out for a faceoff on the top line, then the third line, and then the top line again.

Throughout it all, Cassels found himself playing with nearly every member of the team on some occasion, rarely finding any sort of consistency. Anecdotally, it seems he may have had more linemates, and less time with any particular linemate, than anyone else on the team. Fellow rookie Joe LaBate may be the exception – the two found themselves together upwards of 30 or so times, though rarely after early March, when injuries forced LaBate (who was having an excellent rookie season by comparison) into the top six. Outside of LaBate, Cassels often found himself with players on AHL contracts and PTO’s.

I’ve written before about the effect that inconsistent linemates can have on a players’ ability to get settled, that time in regards to Alex Burrows’ rotating cast of linemates. Former Canucks turned old school analyst Garry Valk spoke of players’ learning their teammates tendencies on the ice, and how that aided in a player’s ability to show consistency. While Burrows was often deployed with rookies who were coming in and out of the lineup, Cassels was often deployed with ECHL level players who were just signed to temporary contracts earlier in the week.

Of course, these are mere observations. There’s no scientific data here to indicate that this had a major negligible effect on Cassels season. But it’s not hard to imagine that it would. It is hard to throw much blame at Travis Green though, who appeared to try to give Cassels some consistency at the start of the season when he was usually deployed with LaBate, Mike Zalewski or Darren Archibald. But that simply couldn’t last when both the Comets and Canucks were sending player after player to the infirmary, and Cassels failed to show the ability to stay in the top six where linemates may have been more consistent.

In terms of production, there really isn’t much to talk about. Two goals and five assists in 67 games is among the worst on the team in points per game, even among rookies. Pseudo-prospect Curtis Valk was nearly able to catch Cassels, putting up six points in just 12 AHL games. With an estimated points per 60 minutes of 0.77, only John Negrin (a career AHL defenceman) and John Kurtz (a borderline AHL grinder) had worse production rates among regulars.

On-ice stats were no more friendly than those of the production variety. At 5-on-5, Cassels had a goal differential of minus-16, and a goal ratio of just 33.3 percent. The only Comets players with less were with the team of a temporary basis: John Kurtz, Brandon Marino, and Michael Pereira, all of which saw plenty of time with Cassels in the latter half of the season.

Our projection system, pGPS, views Cassels in an understandably unfavourable light. From a list of 251 former AHL players that had seasons with a similarity score of at least 95% (the standard threshold I use) to Cassels’ 2015-16 campaign, only 25 played at least 200 NHL games (just under 10 percent). If the similarity threshold is cranked up, the outlook only gets worse. Just 2.6% of the players with at least 97.5% similarity became NHL regulars. Those that did often found there way there through methods other than production, with names like Cam Janssen, Shawn Thornton and Antoine Roussel dotted throughout the list. The most encouraging name that the program spit out is probably Curtis Glencross, who scored nine points in 51 AHL games in 2004-05 before going on to score 275 points in 507 NHL games.

Going into next season, Cassels will be looking to recover some of the goodwill that he lost during his abysmal rookie year in the AHL. Throughout his junior career, Cassels was lauded for his two-way play, and if he can regain that label, it should help to revive the organization’s faith in him, as awareness at both ends of the ice tends to be a boon for players gunning for promotions. He also has a good shot that he didn’t get off nearly as often as he needed to in his rookie year. The tenacity and mean streak (read: “hard to play against”) that endeared him to fans and analysts in junior had been all but vaporized by the fragile mindset that plagued him last season. He may need that back more than anything.

With expectations lowered and a full off-season of good health and complete training, he should be about to get back on track. Travis Green still seems to have faith in Cassels and believes that with a good off-season, he can come in and be a main contributor in Utica. We’ll be hoping for a return to form in Cassels’ future, and that he can use that unfortunate experience to fuel him, rather than sink him.