Canucks Army GDT #19 – Canucks @ Oilers

They call these “trap games.” Sometimes, either after a big win when you can have a major let down, or before a big game when you can overlook your opponent, teams can overlook squads well below them in the standings and cough up an otherwise eminently winnable two points.

Well, with Ryan Kesler making his return to Vancouver tomorrow night, you wouldn’t be wrong to suspect that the Canucks could overlook a bottom-of-the-standings team that they’ve owned in the recent past. This would could be a costly mistake though, as the 2014-2015 Edmonton Oilers may legitimately be just as good as the 2014-2015 Vancouver Canucks.

Read past the jump.

Puck Drop: 5:00 PM PST

TV: Sportsnet

Radio: TSN 1040

Now, I wouldn’t blame you if you were caught overlooking this game ahead of tomorrow’s return of Ryan Kesler to Rogers Arena. After all, it’s the Oilers. Vancouver has beaten them three times already this season, and Edmonton still sits in the thick of the Connor McDavid sweepstakes. On the surface, not much has changed.

But less than 20 games in to the NHL season, things are rarely as clear as they appear on the surface. Look past each team’s record and goal differential, and you see two teams that are (disturbingly so, if you’re a Canucks fan) virtually identical in terms of even strength effectiveness. Both teams have received atrocious goaltending at 5-on-5 and have been allowing goals at a rate worse than the Buffalo Sabres, and are generating shots at a nearly identical rate too. The only difference is where Vancouver has had poor shooting luck, Edmonton’s has been awful.

In fact, the Oilers sit above the Canucks in terms of raw 5-on-5 Corsi%, which is a terrifying prospect if you’re hoping for playoff glory this season. Adjusted for score effects, they’re basically indistinguishable from each other too. The Canucks do, however, possess slightly better score-adjusted Fenwick numbers, but that’s not much consolation seeing as adjusted Corsi generally provides a better measure.

The point of all of this is that even though they’re playing the Anaheim Ducks at home tomorrow night, Vancouver absolutely cannot overlook a suddenly competent Oilers squad. And seeing as the Canucks are coming off a 5-0 thrashing at the hands of the Coyotes and have had plenty of time to practice, there is absolutely no excuse for not being energetic tonight. It would be a massive mistake to overlook the Oilers, as they appear to be closer to the Canucks in team talent than they have been for a long, long time.