Canucks Army Free Agent Profiles: Milan Lucic

Yes, the time is nearly upon us. Ever since word leaked at last year’s draft that there was mutual interest between the Vancouver Canucks and local boy Milan Lucic, a fierce debate has raged amongst the fan base: should the Canucks be interested? Should we, the fans, be accepting of a key cog of the 2011 Boston Bruins, irrespective of the hero he was for this city in junior?

Milan Lucic is an illustration of the rift that has grown between Canucks fans. There’s a very real hatred associated with what he did to the Canucks five years ago, lifting the silver chalice in our building while sporting the spoked B. Yet it’s difficult to imagine that even his fiercest critic wouldn’t be able to find some semblance of forgiveness deep down inside them if the former Giant ended up pulling on the blue and green.

In short, Milan Lucic has us all deeply confused and conflicted. So.. should we bring him aboard?

The ever venerable HERO chart paints Lucic in a pretty flattering light. In all manners of offence, he rates like a first line winger. He has been getting kicked around in terms of shot suppression, but he’s still in the black for possession on the whole. The Composite WOWYs at the top also demonstrate how he’s been a boon for his teammates rather than a hindrance.

His effect on teammates is further illustrated in this bubble WOWY from Corsica Hockey, containing all teammates that shared at least 200 minutes of ice time with Lucic last season in Los Angeles. With the exception of Drew Doughty, every player had a higher possession percentage with Lucic (blue) than without him (red), and Lucic’s possession on his own (green) was typically an improvement as well.

(Source: TSN.ca)

Lucic has been a productive player over the course of his career, having hit the 20-goal plateau on four separate occasions (including this past season), and the 30-goal mark once. At just 27 years old (he’ll be 28 in a week and a half), Lucic has already played over 100 playoff games, and has 26 goals and 64 points to show for 101 postseason appearances.

I really shouldn’t have to tell you how Lucic plays the game of hockey. He’s a prototypical power forward, the type of player that you look to model young players after. How many times have we heard, “Could he be the next Lucic?” over the past several years? We hear it because everybody wants a player like Lucic on their team.

He scores goals, he dishes out hits, he drives possession, and he’s an absolute nasty piece of business. He’s no stranger to crossing the line on occasion, but generally speaking he plays on the right side of. To no surprise, he’s racked up more than twice as many penalty minutes over the course of his career as points, though he hasn’t broken 100 PIMs in a season since 2011-12. In most seasons, he draws nearly as many penalties as he takes.

Lucic has also been quite durable throughout his career, and he hasn’t missed more than three games in any of the last six seasons. Of course, Brandon Sutter was considered durable into he threw on a Canucks jersey, and we all know how that worked out.

This question has so many different facets to it. In the modern NHL, it’s not as simple as asking, “Do you want this player?”. Even if it was, you wouldn’t be getting a conclusive answer if you were to poll the fan base.

In terms of style of play, the Canucks could absolutely use someone who plays the game like Milan Lucic. As a team, they’ve lost nearly all of their “bite” and “snarl”, having dealt guys like Kesler and Bieksa, while watching Burrows age into more of a father figure than a pest. Back in the good old days, it used to piss people off to play against the Canucks – both because they were good and that they tended to rub it in. Now, the trip through Rogers Arena is a bit of a cake walk, with the exception of the reinvigorated Daniel “Thug Life” Sedin.

Could Vancouver use the scoring? Well, they finished 29th in the NHL last season in that department, so I’d check the box on that one. Lucic isn’t likely to score as many goals as some other free agent options like Steven Stamkos (duh), Loui Eriksson or Kyle Okposo, but as a free agent option, it’s hard to turn down an extra 20 goals in the line up.

Next, we’ll consider what’s known about the level of interest between the parties, and this situation is a particularly unusual. Lucic is an East Vancouver kid who spent his junior seasons as a member of the Vancouver Giants, winning a Memorial Cup in 2007. He also won a Stanley Cup as a member of the enemy in our territory, which has caused some serious contention between him and his home town. Thomas Drance chronicled some of that mess in an article back in November, which included threats against Lucic and vandalism against his family’s church. Yet the article also describes Lucic’s change in heart and desire to play for his home town team.

On the surface, Lucic wouldn’t seem like Linden and Benning’s type of “character player”, what with his penchant for sucker punches, groin spears, and death threats. That said, as a former Boston executive, we have every reason to suspect that Jim Benning is very interested, not to mention the fact that the Canucks already made a play for Lucic last year – so why would they change their minds now that the Canucks don’t have to give up anything in return?

Other than cap space that is.

Compensation is a large and worrisome consideration. Lucic is coming off a three-year deal worth $6 million per, including making $6.5 million in salary last year. There’s no telling what he’ll be looking for on his next contract. It’s not likely to be a substantial raise on the $6 schmill that he was just making, but that might already be an over-payment.

There is a tendency in most pro sports, hockey included, to pay for what a player has done, rather than what they’re capable of doing in the future – and Lucic’s future is far from certain. There is documentation abound that Lucic is already on the back nine of his career, including declining production rates and decreased effectiveness in driving possession. Though his numbers rebounded a bit in Los Angeles this past season (particularly towards the end of the year), it’s unlikely that he will be able to maintain that level of play based on what the game has done, or will do, to his body.

Canucks Army alumnus Cam Lawrence (Money Puck) published an article on Hockey Graphs last year that studied the career trajectories of players based on the amount of hits they dish out, as a proxy for how physical their style of play is. The results indicated that players that fit into a high hit cohort, like Lucic does, see their careers end earlier than less physically involved players – and that’s saying nothing of the diminishing production in the meantime.

(High hit cohort is set at 2.7 hits per game; Lucic has averaged 3.0+ hits per game each of the last four seasons, and 2.82 hits per game over the course of his career.)

There are positives and negatives to this deal. Bringing Lucic into the fold in Vancouver has the potential to be both a huge attendance draw in the beginning and a major cap anchor later on. The crux of how it all plays out over the long haul is the structure of the contract. If Benning pays Lucic long term for what he’s been to this point (as is the custom), it’s probably going to look pretty bad near the end, when Lucic is likely to be a shell of what he is when they acquire him.

I’ve never grown as close to the Giants as I am to the Canucks, so any affinity gained for him during his time here in junior is entirely trumped by the hatred I grew for him during his time in Boston. Still, I can’t claim that it’s altogether a bad idea. He brings something that the team is lacking, even if it isn’t worth $6 million. 

So I guess in the end, I can’t really give a recommendation one way or the other (other than don’t break the bank on him). I’m just like the rest of the fanbase – I’m conflicted. And I will probably continue to be conflicted until Lucic signs on the dotted line in July, whether it be with the Canucks or elsewhere.