Today’s game might be the biggest of the Vancouver Canucks‘ season. Amidst the race for the eighth and final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference, the Canucks travel to Calgary for a battle with the Flames.
Let’s illustrate how crucial this game really is for the Canucks’ playoff hopes, with the help of MoneyPuck.com.
Ahead of last night’s game, the Canucks had a 36.6% chance to make the playoffs. With a regulation win last night against the Montreal Canadiens, they would jump to 42.4%. However, the loss brought them down to a 27.3% chance to make the playoffs.
Now with a regulation loss tonight to the Flames, the Canucks’ odds would dip all the way down to 16.1% to make the playoffs. But with a regulation win, the Canucks claw their way back up into strong consideration back up to 33.6%.
This is a four-point game for either side tonight. You’re earning two points but also stealing two points away from your closest competition. The Flames can jump up to nearly 50%, at 43.5% with a regulation win, but drop over 11% and drop below the Canucks with a regulation loss.
Whether win or lose, the Canucks odds to make/miss the playoffs seem low, don’t they? Well, that’s because it’s not just the Flames they’re competing with.
Here are how the standings sit as of this writing:
As it currently stands, the Canucks are on the outside looking in. With their struggles, the St. Louis Blues and Utah Hockey Club have re-entered the playoff race. The Blues are tied with the Canucks and one point behind the Flames and the Hockey Club sit three points behind.
Not only do the Flames have the one/three point advantage, but they also have one game in hand on the Canucks and Hockey Club and two on the Blues. With a regulation win, Calgary controls its own destiny and could firmly put itself in the driver’s seat.
Let’s look at each of these teams’ remaining schedules, the strengths of schedules and each team’s head-to-head record against the three other teams battling for the final Wild Card spot.
Canucks
Remaining schedule:
Pacific Division: Golden Knights x2, Flames x1, Kraken x1, Ducks x1 and Sharks x1Central Division: Jets x2, Blackhawks x1, Hockey Club x1, Blues x1, Stars x1, Avalanche x1 and Wild x1Atlantic Division: N/AMetropolitan Division: Rangers x1, Devils x1, Islanders x1, Blue Jackets x1
This leaves the Canucks with the 12th-hardest strength of schedule remaining (per tankathon), with an average opponent point percentage at .556%.
Record against competition:
Canucks vs. Flames – 1-1-1 record, outscored 10-9 (6-5 OTL, 3-1 W, 3-1 L). 3/6 possible points.Canucks vs. Hockey Club – 0-1-1 record, outscored 5-3 (3-2 OTL, 2-1 L). 1/4 possible points.Canucks vs. Blues – 1-0-1 record, outscored Blues 8-6. (4-3 OTL, 5-2 W). 3/4 possible points.
Flames
Remaining schedule:
Pacific Division – Ducks x2, Golden Knights x2, Sharks x2, Canucks x1, Kraken x1, Oilers x1 and Kings x1Central Division – Avalanche x2, Stars x1, Hockey Club x1 and Wild x1Atlantic Division – Maple Leafs x1Metropolitan Division – Rangers x1, Devils x1 and Islanders x1
This leaves the Flames with the 17th-hardest strength of schedule remaining, with an average opponent point percentage of .547%.
Record against competition:
Flames vs. Canucks – 2-1 record, outscored Canucks 10-9 (6-5 W, 3-1 L, 3-1 W) 4/6 possible points.Flames vs. Hockey Club – 0-2 record, outscored 9-4 (4-1 L, 5-3 L). 0/4 possible points.Flames vs. Blues – 0-3 record, outscored 10-5 (4-3 OTL, 2-1 L, 4-1 L). 0/6 possible points.
Hockey Club
Remaining schedule:
Pacific Division – Kraken x2, Ducks x1, Canucks x1, Oilers x1, Flames x1 and Kings x1Central Division – Predators x2, Blackhawks x1, Jets x1, Stars x1, Blues x1Atlantic Division – Sabres x1, Red Wings x1, Lightning x2, Panthers x1Metropolitan Division – N/A
This leaves the Hockey Club with the 23rd-hardest strength of schedule remaining, with an average opponent point percentage of .539%.
Record against competition:
Hockey Club vs. Canucks – 2-0 record, outscore Canucks 5-3 (3-2 W, 2-1 W). 4/4 possible points.Hockey Club vs. Flames – 2-0 record, outscored Flames 9-4 (4-1 W, 5-3 W). 4/4 possible points.Hockey Club vs. Blues – 2-1 record, outscored Blues 9-5 (4-2 W, 4-2 W, 2-1 L) 4/6 possible points.
Blues
Remaining schedule
Pacific Division: Ducks x1, Canucks x1, Oilers x1 and Kraken x1Central Division: Predators x2, Avalanche x2, Wild x1, Blackhawks x1, Jets x1 and Hockey Club x1Atlantic Division: Canadiens x1, Red Wings x1Metropolitan Division: Penguins x2
This leaves the Blues with the easiest (32nd) strength of schedule remaining, with an average opponent point percentage of .520%.
Record against competition:
Blues vs. Canucks – 1-1 record, outscored 8-6 (4-3 W, 5-2 L). 2/4 possible points.Blues vs. Flames – 3-0 record, outscored Flames 10-5 (4-3 W, 2-1 W, 4-1 W). 6/6 possible points.Blues vs. Hockey Club – 1-2 record, outscored 9-5 (4-2 L, 4-2 L, 2-1 W). 2/6 possible points.
What are the Canucks chances to make playoffs?
Well, first off, it all starts with a win tonight against the Flames. As we mentioned above, it can massively increase with a win tonight. That will push them one point ahead of Calgary with a game in hand.
According to MoneyPuck.com, here are each of these teams’ current percentages of chances to make the playoffs:
1st – Flames – 35.1%2nd – Blues – 31.2%3rd – Canucks – 24.3%4th – Hockey Club – 21.9%
With a regulation win in their next game:
1st – Flames – 43.5%2nd – Blues – 37.7%3rd – Canucks – 33.6%4th – Hockey Club – 25.3%
With a regulation loss in their next game:
1st – Flames – 24%2nd – Blues – 22.8%3rd – Canucks – 16.1%4th – Hockey Club – 13.4%
The Canucks find themselves ranked third in all of these categories. However, they would jump up to second with a regulation win tonight as the Flames would fall to just 24%.
Now, with it being such a tight race, there is a possibility the Canucks find themselves in a tie for points. So let’s dive into some other stats and tie-breakers to see if the Canucks have any sort of advantage.
Here is the list of playoff tie-breakers rules:
Every team will have played 82 games at season’s end, so the first tie-breaker is out of the picture.
2. Regulation Wins
The Flames (24) sit atop this group in regulation wins, with the Canucks trailing (23) and are just one ahead of the Blues (22) and three in front of the Hockey Club (20).
3. Regulation and Overtime Wins
The Canucks (28) lead the group all by one as the Flames (27), Blues (27) and Hockey Club (27) are all tied.
4. Total Wins
The Blues (31) have the most total wins this season with the Flames (30), Canucks (29) and Hockey Club (28) all behind one another by one.
5. Points Earned head-to-head
The Hockey Club has a positive record against each team, earning 12/14 points for an 86% point percentage. The Blues fall second at 63%, with the Canucks not far behind at 50% and the Flames far behind at just 25%. Each team has games remaining against one another, so these are subject to change.
6. Goal Differential
The Blues (-7) lead the group in goal differential, with the Hockey Club (-9) not far behind. The Flames (-18) and Canucks (-21) are much further behind in this category.
7. Goals For
The Blues (187) have scored the most goals but have also played the most games. The Hockey Club (182) trail by just five goals, while the Canucks (174) and Flames (164) again bring up the rear.
While the Canucks are quite behind in the goal scoring category, they give themselves a pretty good chance of winning the tie breakers as they can take a tie for the lead in regulation wins tonight, and grow to a two goal lead in regulation and overtime wins.
As mentioned, the Flames control their own destiny and have the opportunity to put themselves up three points on the Canucks with a regulation win tonight, with a game in hand to potentially have a five point gap in the standings, if they win that game.
With a loss tonight, the Canucks aren’t fully out of the race, but they will now need help from other teams around the league to propel them into the Stanley Cup playoffs. But with a win, they’re back in the playoff spot and will have a tough uphill battle as the team with the hardest remaining strength of schedule out of the bunch.
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